The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 19 2024

Russians Prepare For Three More Years Of War

Macron Snubs Zelensky On Israel-Like Air Defences

Ukraine “Tipped Off Poland on Zelesnky Assassination Plot”, Russia Denies Germany’s Sabotage Charge

Ukraine may not have enough money to operate the economy and pay salaries/benefits.
The IMF has calculated that Ukraine needs $42 billion in loan funds to “survive” this year. Although Western partners “hope” and assure that the money will be found, many are skeptical about receiving the full amount. Moreover, the costly case in Kyiv is constantly growing. As a result, the exchange rate will have to be reduced, saving currency, devaluing salaries and payments to the people/military.

Our source points out that what is most important is not this figure, but the fact that in 2025/2026 Ukraine will need even more money for existence and payments, and the West will stop giving. Then literally everything will collapse.

Real democracy from the Western clientele looks exactly like this: when asked about the sources of your funding, you threaten your opponent with prison or a bullet! It won’t be long before the methods of the troikas, which will destroy anyone who has their own opinion without trial.

This year there is no intrigue with NATO at all, and the trip of our delegation is now in question. Our source in the OP said that the Biden Administration does not want to lead Zelensky, who is now associated not with victory, but with a protracted war.
By the summit in Washington in July there will be no conditions for inviting Ukraine into the alliance , – NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana

 “I will be frank, I do not believe that by the summit in Washington the conditions will have developed for inviting Ukraine into NATO.”

Since the appointment of Syrsky as Commander-in-Chief, we have lost more territories than we were able to conquer in the entire 2023. Moreover, the trend is negative for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but instead of raising morale and strengthening positions, there are mass purges of the command staff, from Zaluzhny’s people and Zelensky’s critics.

MediaKiller2021

Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not yet capable of conducting offensive operations, and Zelensky’s desire to organize a counteroffensive at the end of the summer is perceived by the command as agony. After Zaluzhny’s resignation, there are no people in the President’s entourage capable of conveying the real situation at the front, which affects the headquarters’ plans.

MI6 transmitted new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff about the plans of the Russian army to introduce new 10 brigades into Ukraine by the end of May. For these purposes, heavy equipment is also being accumulated, and assault groups with new weapons are also being prepared.

Macron on EU unity in tightening anti-Russian sanctions:

It is clear that the priority is to support Ukraine. Each of us has a responsibility to make the best possible use of our capabilities so that we can support Ukraine more effectively by working together. We must urgently arm ourselves with sustainable European means to strengthen our defense capabilities, including through innovative ways of financing. We are also unanimous in strengthening sanctions against Russia and continuing to hamper the Russian military machine.
 

CIA Director Bill Burns on Thursday warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year.

His comments mark one of the starkest warnings to date from the Biden administration on the stakes in Ukraine as Congress debates whether to approve a long-delayed aid package to Kiev.

   “With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024,” Burns said.

   “Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

NATO’s Hybrid Forever War

NATO is the shield upon which Europe will lay dead so US aggression might parade as defensive. The US has exploited its leadership role in NATO to wage myriad hybrid wars, but none so tirelessly as its forever war against Russia. It fights in ways which don’t deter, don’t deescalate, and don’t defend. US Foreign policy is antithetical to any defensive alliance’. Despite this, the US has always held the reins of real leadership in NATO, SACEUR Command.

Illustrations are abundant, but perhaps most relevant to the current situation in Ukraine is a US Army sponsored RAND Corp white paper from 2019 which “examines Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties…then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them.” Those same exploits  “would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose…” Among those exploits are intentionally prodding Russia with the NATO stick. “While NATO’s requirement for unanimity makes it unlikely that Ukraine could gain membership in the foreseeable future, Washington’s pushing this possibility could boost Ukrainian resolve while leading Russia to redouble its efforts to forestall such a development.”(1). 2019 is also the year that Ukraine enshrined EU/NATO membership into its Constitution.
 

Why would the US want to further antagonize Russia after 2019?

The US attempted to force Russia to “overextend itself militarily or economically or [cause] the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence.” It’s evident that the advice given in this paper was taken by the Biden administration, if not directly, at least tangentially. Some of it’s analysis could be said to have predicted the near term outcomes of the policy of poking Russia with the NATO stick. But in typical neocon fashion, implementation it either failed to predict real consequence or ignored them entirely.

The George C Marshall Center is one of the many US military-political organs in the Natosphere. Their Eurasian Foreign Affairs Office (FAO) program “prepares U.S. military officers and officers of allied nations to be leading regional experts and to serve in key political-military assignments throughout Eurasia…FAO [graduates] will go on to serve in U.S. embassies in the region, on NATO and major U.S. theater command staffs, and on numerous operational missions throughout the world.”(2) A GCM publication written shortly after the SMO began goes into great detail as to the offensive capabilities and usage of the “weaponized dollar,” which “has been a primary tool of U.S. governance around the world since WWII, utilized by almost every U.S. President against nations and leaders they wished to influence or destroy.”(3)

The article notes that the dollar’s use as an “offensive weapon” doesn’t end with brute force applications like sanctions, but in admittance of the currency and debt manipulation, charges the US often enough levy at other nations. “For example, when the United States is in need of increased production of money, or increased economic activity, for any number of political or strategic reasons, the Federal Reserve (which functions as the U.S. and the world’s central bank) can increase the supply of Dollars to meet their needs. Since the majority of foreign debt is held in U.S. treasury bonds, the U.S. government has the ability to control the value of these notes both on the side of the borrower, and the creditor. As they are the creators of the new currency, they will be able to ‘spend’ it first.”

The titular gambit taking place there is Putin’s, which has been hugely successful. The West is now being forced to realign it’s economy around the only well-known economic boons left to it in the wake of some very dire prognostication by Alisair Macleod cited in the same publication. Though the article speaks in broader terms, the GCM paper regards Russia as the preeminent threat to dollar dominance. In 2021, MacLeod noted of the state of western economies that the economy “is a mess, and it’s not just America.  When I look at Europe . . . they are incompetent . . . The Eurozone banks are on the verge of bankruptcy, I mean beyond insolvency.”(4)

In a 10 April 2024 US HASC meeting, Biden DoD appointee, Dr. Celeste Wallander, seems dismissive of Ukraine’s interests in US involvement in Ukraine.  “We are doing this out of self-interest, out of American national security interests—as well, of course, out of admiration we as American feel for Ukraine…”

Why would the US want provocation to lead to War in Ukraine? The dismal economic appraisal by MacLeod in 2021 was by no means the first of its kind and would probably be the least cynical of answers. And the only revelation to be found in the GCM white paper is its brazenness.

The fruits of this conflict are reaped in both technology and doctrine. The technological fruits are being reaped as Ukraine’s administration offer themselves up as labra’s for the Western MCI. The doctrinal fruits are perhaps still a lesson in progress as the outcome is tbd, at least in their eyes. As the US faces an ever stronger, militarized China, creating a realistic response that doesn’t require the overwhelming advantage that is the hallmark of NATO doctrine is necessary.
 

An examination of new tactical and strategic doctrine dealing with the China threat is beyond the scope here. But briefly, it would be impossible to deny the influence of the current landwar in Ukraine on the new US strategic initiative in China. Leaving off here with an essay by CSIS which notes that Taiwan “should ditch its expensive planes and warships, which will probably be destroyed or disabled at the outset of any conflict, and instead focus on antiship missiles, mines, and other asymmetric capabilities that can help it survive until help arrives.

Whether the US or its proxies will take the appropriate lessons in it’s next forever war set in Asia will largely depend on the level of hubris it brings with it. Judging by the quote above, the outlook isn’t good

Nagasaki Nightmare

West is one step away from sending troops to Ukraine – Orban

 - “This is a military maelstrom that could drag Europe to the bottom. Brussels is playing with fire, what it is doing is already tempting God,” the Hungarian prime minister said.

 - Europe’s leaders are “already involved” in the conflict in Ukraine, calling it “their war”, Europe has already spent about 100 billion euros on Ukraine.

 - “Pro-war governments” and “the George Soros-created network of Brussels bureaucrats” are sending millions of dollars to support the Hungarian opposition because they “want a puppet government subordinate to Brussels and Washington,” but as long as Hungary has a nationally oriented government, Budapest will not enter the conflict in Ukraine “on anyone’s side.”

Russia Rains Iskander-M Missiles On Ukrainian Airbase, Kyiv’s S-300 Goes Up In Flames

Dnipro airfield was attacked

‘Deadlier Than Kinzhal…’: Putin Unleashes Lethal Kh-69 Missile To Bleed Ukraine

Large-scale air raid throughout the country 404.
Strategic aviation strikes enemy targets with cruise missiles. Tu-22M3 aircraft are also in the air.

Explosions occurred in Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Novomoskovsk, Sinelnikovo, and Pavlograd. Strikes are carried out, among other things, by Kh-22/32 missiles and drones.

Several fires occurred after flights in Dnepropetrovsk.

Massive arrival along the Dnieper. The arrival was to a building in which premises had previously been rented out for commercial real estate, but as you know, since the beginning of the war, all such buildings are used not for commerce, but for the army. It was also possible here (to be specified). People live in the other part. It is also possible that the missile did not arrive, but fell after being shot down/hit, and the target was a completely different building. Well, no one will talk about this. And this doesn’t make things any easier for peaceful people. The war will continue, which means they will come more often.

There are civilian casualties due to shrapnel from the explosion that took place this morning.

The Russians lost one of their Tu-22 aircraft. The Ukrainian Armed Forces and Bankovaya immediately shout that they shot down, which is unlikely, too far away. So they are lying as usual. Everyone is inclined to believe that there was a malfunction or that their own air defense was distinguished.

Arrival in Dnepr was via railway infrastructure. As we see, the Russian Federation is taking out the railway infrastructure, energy, oil, and gas.

It also arrived at the boat station, warehouses where there are boats that could be used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a river landing on the other side.

There are also civilian deaths.

Arrivals in the Odessa region.
They write that in the Yuzhny area, as well as detonation of ammunition in the Chabanka area (where the military unit is located).
The air defense didn’t work at all.
In the morning, a Russian reconnaissance UAV was spotted, which most likely revealed the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

If everything works out our way, Avdeevka will be the least of Ukraine’s problems

Chasov Yar
▪️Yesterday, Ukrainian sources wrote about the 67th Brigade fleeing the battlefield. Its failure is a huge problem for Ukraine. Not only has Ukraine surrendered significant territory, but it has also lost a brigade.

▪️Reportedly, this brigade had sabotaged Syrsky and showed disobedience. But these are just excuses. This situation is not unique to the 67th brigade. We’ve seen similar incidents involving the 25th and the 115th brigades also fleeing the frontlines. The main reasons are the Russian army’s increased capabilities and a sharp deterioration in the quality of Ukrainian personnel. Russia is simply destroying them. Ukrainian soldiers, who are not particularly motivated, see this and surrender as soon as the opportunity arises despite threats from their command.

▪️Ukraine is facing a major operational crisis near Ocheretino. Russia has made a breakthrough, advanced more than two kilometers in a day, and arrived at the outskirts of Ocheretino. Ukrainian command threw in packs of cooks and drivers – whoever they could find – to form new units and somehow stop the Russian advance, and at the end of the day, they managed to do it.

▪️Ukraine is trying to gather reserves in neighboring areas. These are not even battalions, just groups, which are thrown into battle.

▪️Ocheretino is a very important strategic location. It is slightly less important than Chasov Yar, but it is still extremely important for the Central Donetsk sector. Once Ukraine loses Ocheretino, it will lose the last convenient defense line to the north and west of Donetsk, and it will have to retreat further. Moreover, the flanks and rear of Ukraine’s Toretsk grouping will be exposed, while the Russian army is also approaching this grouping from Chasov Yar in the north.

Yury_Podolyaka

The Russian military is preparing the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the upcoming battles for Chasov Yar – a detailed analysis of the situation in the Avdeevsky direction

Our fighters gained a foothold in Ocheretino and Novokalinovo, providing themselves with the opportunity for further advancement. In response to the actions of the Russian army, the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed reserves for oncoming battles, forcing our troops to ease the pressure in the Berdychi area – now the rotation of Ukrainian units is systematically disrupted by attacks from Russian heavy flamethrower systems. Vanity and weak attempts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to counteract the Russian army are observed throughout the Avdeevsky direction.

After today’s visit to Chasov Yar, Zelensky’s surrender of the city is a matter of time. And in order to bring the “moment of truth” closer, the fire forces of the Russian Armed Forces are now actively clearing the outskirts of Chasov Yar from military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and air defense systems. Regular attacks on strategic targets of the Ukrainian army are also observed in the rear areas of the Square: the day before, the Dnepropetrovsk region came under the gun of Russian missiles.

[ SITREP / Summary ] CHASIV YAR IS A DIVERSION??? – Military Analysis & Update for Ukraine War

Collapse Of Novokalynove Is Near l Huge Russian Mobilization Is Coming

Ukrainian Soldiers Swim Across Dnieper River To Surrender Before Russian Army In Kherson

Russian Defence Ministry weekly report on the progress of the special military operation (13-19 April 2024)

Part I

From 13 to 19 April 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in response to the Kiev regime’s attempts to cause damage to the Russian energy and industrial facilities, have carried out 34 group strikes by high-precision air- and sea-based weapons, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, which hit energy industry facilities, enterprises of the military-industrial complex and railway infrastructure of Ukraine, air defence facilities, and ammunition and fuel depots for military hardware.

Moreover, drone operators’ training centres, temporary deployment areas of AFU troops, nationalist formations, and foreign mercenaries were hit.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line and hit manpower and hardware of 12 AFU and national guard brigades close to Kupyansk, Sinkovka, Zagoruykovka, Kotlyarovka (Kharkov region) and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).

In addition, 11 counterattacks were repelled by units of AFU 3rd assault, 21st, 63rd mechanised, 12th national guard special operations forces, and 125th territorial defence brigades close to Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), Torskoye and Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 380 servicemen, one tank, nine armoured fighting vehicles, and 16 motor vehicles.

In the course of the counterbattery warfare, 18 field artillery guns including three U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery systems, as well as six ammunition depots, and five Nota and Anklav electronic warfare stations were hit.

▫️In Donetsk direction, as a result of successful actions of the Yug Group of Forces’ units, the Russian troops seized more advantageous lines, and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of four assault, two airmobile, and six mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Belogorovka, Razdolovka, Orekhovo-Vasilyovka, Bogdanovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Kurdyumovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Seven counterattacks launched by units of AFU 46th airmobile and 10th mountain assault brigades were repelled near Krasnogorovka and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 3,550 servicemen, four tanks, five armoured fighting vehicles, and 87 motor vehicles.

In the course of the counterbattery warfare, 31 field artillery guns, 14 of them were Western-made, as well as four Nota and Anklav electronic warfare stations, and seven ammunition depots were eliminated.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces liberated Pervomayskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), and continued to advance into the depths of the enemy’s defence.

With the support of air strikes, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems fire, 53 counterattacks launched by assault groups of nine AFU brigades have been repelled close to Leninskoye, Novgorodskoye, Novokalinovo, Berdychi, Umanskoye and Netaylovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).

More than 2,170 servicemen, seven tanks, 13 armoured fighting vehicles, 35 motor vehicles, and 19 field artillery guns including two M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery systems, and one U.S-made M777 howitzer have been eliminated during the week.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (13-19 April 2024)

Part II

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Group of Forces’ units improved the tactical situation and hit units of AFU 58th motorised infantry, 72nd mechanised brigades, three territorial defence brigades and the Ukrainian National Guard Brigade close to Ugledar, Urozhaynoye, Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Priyutnoye, Mirnoye, Malinovka, and Lugovskoye (Zaporozhye region).

The enemy lost up to 760 servicemen, one tank, 22 motor vehicles, one Grad MLRS combat vehicle, 14 field artillery guns, eight of them were Western-made.

One Nota and one Bukovel-AD electronic warfare stations, as well as four field ammunition depots have been eliminated.

▫️In Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of AFU 65th, 117th mechanised, 35th, 36th marine, 121st, 126th territorial defence, and 15th national guard brigades close to Orekhov, Rabotino, Shcherbaki, Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region), Mikhailovka, Zmeyevka, Berislav, Ivanovka and Nikolskoye (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 365 servicemen, 24 motor vehicles, 12 field artillery guns, including six U.S.-made, German-made, and Polish-made howitzers, as well as three Nota and Anklav electronic warfare stations.

Missile troops, artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles of the Russian Groups of Forces have eliminated three MiG-29 fighter jets, four An-26 military transport aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force at the home airfield, two air target guidance radars, four S-300 anti-aircraft missile launchers, as well as one IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile launcher.

Air defence systems have shot down 10 U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, six UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles, five French-made Hammer and U.S.-made JDAM aerial bombs, two U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, four U.S.-made MALD aerial false targets, two Tochka-U tactical missiles, 78 HIMARS, Vampire, and Uragan MLRS projectiles, and 1,278 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Over the past week, 27 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered.

Chronicles of the special military operation
for April 18, 2024

Russian forces struck the enemy’s transport infrastructure in Dnipro, Pavlohrad and Kryvyi Rih, as well as the port of Yuzhne in Odesa Region. In Stavropol Region, a Tupolev Tu-22 M3 strategic bomber crashed due to a technical malfunction.

On the Bakhmut direction, fierce battles continue on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, as well as on the outskirts of Bohdanivka and in the area of Klishchiivka.

On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces are consolidating on the outskirts of Ocheretyne, the AFU are pulling up reserves to prevent a breakthrough of the defense line.

On the Donetsk direction, fighting continues in Krasnohorivka. Russian forces are advancing in the area of Pervomaiske towards Netailovo.

On the Vuhledar direction, Russian forces are storming the western outskirts of Novomykhailivka. On the line of Solodke – Novomykhailivka, the Russian Armed Forces have made minor advances.

On the Zaporizhia direction, there are no significant changes in the combat situation. North of Robotyne, the enemy is accumulating reserves for a possible counterattack.

On the Kherson direction, Ukrainian marines maintain a presence in Krynky. The AFU continue almost daily attempts to reinforce the village by boat.

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