The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 23 2024

Putin’s Tit-For-Tat Warning As U.S. Plans To Transfer Seized Russian Assets To Ukraine

Russia Vows To Intensify Attacks On Western Weapons As Zelensky Claims US Nod on Longer-Range ATACMS

Ukraine should come to terms with the fact that it will not return its pre-war borders, writes NYT

Ukraine’s official goal – the return of all lost territories – seems increasingly unrealistic and unattainable to analysts every day, The New York Times claims.

Many experts are skeptical that Ukraine can even come close to that goal, especially after last year’s failed counteroffensive. Moreover, some of them argue that the new American aid package will not only not help Ukraine move forward, but will not even allow it to stop the active Russian offensive.

As the publication explains, such gloomy forecasts are quite easy to justify: “This war is simply more important for Russia than for the West, and Russia is devoting more resources to it.” If the West had fought with Russia directly, and not through Ukraine, it would probably have put much more effort and money into winning.

Therefore, “the most realistic scenario for Ukraine” is not a return to pre-war borders, but the preservation of what it has now, writes the NYT. Ukraine will be smaller, but it will be able to retain most of its territory, and then try to integrate into Europe economically and strategically. “This is much better than complete defeat,” the publication concludes.

Ukraine’s main weakness is the lack of people, and Western weapons will not change this

According to the Ukrainian military, if the United States had accepted an aid package for Ukraine earlier, it would have radically changed the situation. Meanwhile, the lack of shells led to a decrease in the infantrymen’s covering fire and cost lives and territory, notes Reuters.

The influx of weapons should improve Kyiv’s chances of preventing a major Russian breakthrough in the east, but Ukraine still faces a shortage of manpower on the battlefield. Questions also remain about the strength of Ukrainian fortifications along the 1,000-kilometer front line ahead of Russia’s expected summer offensive.

“The biggest source of Ukraine’s weakness is the lack of human power,” says Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish military consulting company Rochan. New conscripts will require months of training before they are sent to the front, which in turn creates a “window of opportunity” for Russia. “I would expect that the situation is likely to continue to deteriorate over the next three months,” the expert suggested.

A European security source said Ukraine needs to step up its mobilization efforts. According to Muzyka, the Ukrainian military needs a massive influx of personnel to confront Russian troops along the entire front. However, a separate campaign to recruit volunteers, in his opinion, will not be enough to cover the shortfall.

As our sources learned, in the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front there is growing dissatisfaction with the Commander-in-Chief, who fulfills all the requirements of the Office of the President, and does not care about the military. Morale continues to decline, and constant enemy breakthroughs of the Ukrainian defense line show Syrsky’s low level of training.

US aid won’t keep up with Russian offensive – The Independent

Kyiv was relieved after the US House of Representatives approved additional military aid to the country after months of political infighting. However, the Ukrainian military fears a Russian offensive before the arrival of new shipments of weapons and ammunition, writes The Independent columnist Askold Krushelnitsky.

Vladimir Zelensky, the commander of the country’s armed forces, Alexander Syrsky, and the head of military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, have all predicted a major Russian offensive that will begin in May or by June. However, there is a widespread belief among the Ukrainian military that Russia is not going to wait until supplies from the United States resume in full. And they believe they are already seeing confirmation of this – Russian forces are stepping up attacks in eastern Ukraine.

The Pentagon noted that the first deliveries from the United States could arrive before the end of April. The US could send weapons that are already at bases of its own armed forces stationed in Europe and replenish them later.

However, The Independent warns that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now seriously limited in their ability to defend the 600-kilometer front line due to a lack of ammunition for the artillery and missile systems needed to repel Russian attacks and provide cover for their troops. At the same time, continuous attacks by Russian forces tired the Ukrainian military and led to heavy losses. Moreover, the long absence of American military aid and dwindling supplies have undermined the morale of Ukrainians. Some are also dismayed by the indifference they have encountered in Washington. 

The West is in no hurry to transfer Patriot air defense batteries to Ukraine .
There are many reasons.
1. Air defense shortage
2. Constantly rising prices for this type of weapon
3. Having given up your air defenses, you will have to wait at least two years until new ones arrive in return.
4. Increasing conflicts, which will further strengthen the role of air defense.

Also, according to our data, the life of air defense during the active phase of the war is no more than 3 months, which means Ukraine will lose 80% of new air defenses by the end of the year.

Our source reports that by the end of the year there will be a severe shortage of humanitarian aid in Ukraine.
There are almost no supplies. They don’t give anything, and the crumbs that come are stolen.
Ukrainians will find themselves in the most difficult situation during the war in winter.
Prepare in advance. Zelensky’s government will not help you, but on the contrary, it will take away everything from everyone.

Our source in the OP said that the United States is putting pressure on the Office of the President on the peaceful track and abandoning the Zelensky formula; the format of Istanbul-1 is now convenient for the West, but the Kremlin does not agree to return to this format and demands that the situation on the front line be recorded. Bankova understands that any peace initiatives with the Kremlin are a death sentence for Zelensky.

They seemed to confirm what we wrote about back in 2023, describing that Zelensky may be faced with the fact that people en masse will begin to refuse to fight, choosing courts and even a pre-trial detention center/prison, which will provoke a collapse with the fact that there will be no places and everyone will have to be given house arrest, but even here there won’t be enough bracelets, which means they will be given fines and suspended sentences.
Back in 2023, Ze and Ermak thought about starting to build “private prisons,” as if realizing that such a situation would happen. We gave inside information about this.

So, lawyer Yuriy Demchenko, citing the official response of the Ministry of Justice, stated that there is not enough space in Ukrainian prisons to transfer all draft dodgers and deserters.

There are 100 institutions of the State Criminal Executive Service of Ukraine in Ukraine, which can accommodate 78,763 people. There are already 44,861 people sitting in them, which means there is room left for 33,902 people.

As they say, it is better to sit than to lie well. 

More than 100 thousand military personnel left their military units without permission , said lawyer Rostislav Kravets.

According to him, no one is doing this, since military courts in Ukraine have been liquidated, and the military law enforcement service does not have the appropriate powers.

That is, the main threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces now is not attacks by the Russian Armed Forces, but the decline in the morale of Ukrainian military personnel. They were deprived not only of demobilization/rotation, but also their responsibility was increased. The fighters understand perfectly well that the authorities have “dumped” them, and even a prison sentence no longer seems so terrible. At the same time, unit commanders try not to report to the command about cases of unauthorized abandonment of units.

Our source in the OP said that the situation at the front is critical and it is necessary to stop the advance of the Russian army by any means so that Ukraine can receive US military assistance. The Ukrainian Armed Forces now have serious problems with ammunition and artillery, which is causing the withdrawal of units and entire brigades from their positions.

Problems at the front are growing every day; if previously there were cases of retreat or surrender of small groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, yesterday an entire brigade left its position without an order. Volunteer Tim Zlatkin writes about this.

“Today it’s very difficult in Ocheretino. They say that one brigade left its position without orders,” Zlatkin wrote.

According to him, after this the Russians “immediately entered the populated area.”

“Now the fighting continues in the center with the forces of another brigade, which was supposed to rotate and resume. This is not a breakthrough yet, but it will be difficult to level the front in the important Avdeevsky direction,” the volunteer added.

Classics of the genre. It is not the rear rats who are to blame for abandoning the soldiers, but the brigades that “supposedly left” without orders. In simple words, they retreated.

The whole scandal over Ocheretino in the Avdeevsky direction, which the Russians captured by forced march, but the headquarters and media workers of the OP began to tell the story that one of the brigades left their positions without an order.

Volunteer Tim Zlatkin writes about this.

Another of our sources indicates that most likely, the headquarters did not expect that a sharp onslaught of the Russian Armed Forces would begin so far inland and kept a symbolic number of real fighters in this locality, but according to documents there were thousands. When the Russians attacked, they got scared and left. The management realized that it smelled like something was fried and sent reserves to put out the disaster.

Do not forget that the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is low and mass retreat is possible. And perhaps this is only the first puzzle of a global problem that is immediately connected with all the “versions/rumors” voiced in this post.

Mykola Melnyk,  company commander with Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade stated the following

“Ocheretino’s takeover makes a cascading line of defense meaningless set of trenches. To say the standard phrase “I told you” is not on time. Now it is necessary to urgently fill the hole, otherwise the prospect of Pokrovsk falling will become even closer”

There is the potential here, for the entire Ukrainian line in this sector to completely collapse and scupper the whole Ukrainian defensive operation west of Avdiivka.

This is a very, very rare opportunity for Russia and if they are able to properly exploit it, could be the massive, war defining breakthrough they need this year

The clear significance of the control of Ocheretino. How the Ukrainian armed forces managed to lose so easily one of the key points on the entire front west of Avdeevka is an interesting question.

A clear miscalculation of the enemy command multiplied by the fleeing of one of the AFU brigades.
Which were skillfully used by our command.

By evening, there are reports that our troops are pressing south of Ocheretino to Solovyevo and Novobahmutovka. One of the logical moves.

Avdeevka direction, northern flank

▫️The enemy confirms the success of the Russian army in Novobakhmutovka south of Ocheretino.

▫️According to information, exposed by @rezervsvo, the enemy completely abandoned the village this morning. At these moments, a cleanup is underway on the western outskirts of the settlement
 

Ocheretino direction: Novobakhmutovka…

Yesterday our units were able to take control of a large part of Ocheretino. It was a very beautiful attack, which gave simply stunning results.

Once again the enemy units, unable to withstand the blow, abandoned their positions. And, as I was able to find out we got the main assault Ocheretino quite cheap in terms of losses. And the fact that our attackers during the battle calmly posed and clearly not afraid of enemy drones, suggests that the key to success was the effective work of EW systems, plus a good organization of the attack.

Moreover, by morning our units managed to occupy Novobakhmutovka settlement. At that, too, with very low losses (about 1 to 7 in our favor).

Again, the enemy’s drones were neutralized, and the only thing that today’s units tried to do (as of 12.00 Moscow time, at least, I have no further data) was to try to prevent us from gaining a foothold there (the village there remains only on maps, it’s already a ruin today).

Thus, as of today, we have taken control of Novobakhmutovka, but not until later in the evening (when the results of the day’s fighting will be known). At the same time it is already obvious that the enemy has obvious problems in this area and first of all in their only effective deterrence component for today – FPV-drones. That means that we may well expect new good news from this direction.

Especially considering that our capture of Novobakhmutovka and earlier complete clearing of Semenovka makes holding the stronghold in the northwestern part of Berdychi absolutely pointless.

yurasumy

Situation in Chasiv Yar:

Our unit, using the Kornet ATGM, destroyed the enemy’s antenna with repeaters and dome cameras.

The AFU is setting up firing positions deep in Chasiv Yar, preparing for active defense, and mining approaches and roads. Our 98th Airborne Division continues active assault operations.

The AFU forces are urgently preparing new defense lines, the main one being the Siversky Donets – Donbas canal. It was equipped during the assault on Bakhmut, and the canal itself represents a natural anti-tank obstacle, impassable for both armored and wheeled vehicles, and the enemy has already blown up all the crossings over the canal during the Bakhmut assault.

The deciduous forest has been completely cleared and is under the control of the 217th Airborne Regiment.

Spetsnaz Archangel

There are reports of a missile danger alert declared in southern Russia. The exact reason is currently unknown, but the launch of cruise missile carriers cannot be ruled out.

It is worth noting that a British electronic reconnaissance aircraft RC-135V and a French AWACS aircraft E-3F are currently airborne simultaneously.

Their presence can be considered a sign of a pending attack, which has been repeatedly confirmed in previous strikes on Crimea.

Ukrainian formations continue to shell the border areas of Belgorod Region.

▪️In the morning, a kamikaze drone attacked Bezlyudovka in the Shebekino urban district. As a result of the fall and subsequent detonation, there were no casualties, but the facade of a commercial facility was damaged.

▪️In the evening, another unmanned aerial vehicle fell and detonated near the checkpoint of an industrial enterprise in Shebekino. Three injured people were hospitalized in moderate condition. Damage was recorded to five parked cars nearby.

▪️An hour later, Shebekino was again subjected to a UAV attack. There were no casualties this time, but as a result of the dropping of an explosive device, a passenger car caught fire, and three more cars were hit by shrapnel. The glazing in two apartments of apartment buildings was also damaged.
rybar

Last week, Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian territory.

▪️In the border regions, the intensity of shelling remains relatively low compared to three weeks ago, when almost twice as much ammunition was fired at the Belgorod Region.

Nevertheless, the region is still not without casualties: over the past week, three people were killed in the region, including a pregnant woman, while the total number of deaths since the start of the conflict is 120 residents, including 11 children.

▪️Over the past two weeks, the intensity of shelling of the Donetsk metro area has decreased, which seems to be the result of the success of Russian troops both near Avdiivka and along the line of Pervomaiske – Krasnohorivka.

▪️At the same time, the number of attacks by Ukrainian drones on infrastructure facilities in Russian rear regions has increased significantly. One of the impacts was in the Smolensk Region, where a drone struck a LUKOIL oil depot.

Drones of the enemy were also intercepted over Mordovia, Tatarstan and the Kaluga Region, and three weather balloons used by the AFU to transport explosive devices were destroyed near Voronezh.

▪️In addition, over the past week, Ukrainian forces launched Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles at the Crimean Peninsula. Russian air defenses intercepted some of the munitions, but the remaining ones damaged the infrastructure of the airfield in Dzhankoi.
rybar

MedvedevVesti Regarding the comments from my colleagues about the situation with the use of drones by the enemy, I would like to add one comment. And it’s not even mine.

This is the opinion of an officer who is currently fighting in the southern direction and faces the results of the enemy’s developers’ activities every day.

“So. What do we have.

The enemy has a variety of FPV drones, the entire territory is divided into sectors and zones of reach, for different types of FPV.

There are FPV munitions, they carry a huge amount of explosives, specially designed to destroy houses, basements, and dugouts. They operate in the close range.

There are FPV hunters on vehicles – they operate at 15-20 km, there are FPV retrics, with which they can fly up to 25-30 km.

They use a lot of drones like Baba Yaga, but they work on coordinates, that is, an M3T (Mavic third – my note) flies with it and records its work, the route is set automatically, it mainly mines or finishes off exposed targets.

Ammunition is not used often, but a lot. They don’t spare long-range ones on an exposed target, they fired 38 long-range, 2 tank, and 3 FPV munitions at an exposed mortar position.”

The officer also gave an assessment of the standard EW means, including those that have been arriving recently. I won’t include it here. In short: we would like more effective means.

Therefore, all those who now doubt that the AFU are capable of fighting without artillery and striking our rear without aviation are very mistaken.
What Rybar writes about – the many volunteer groups in Ukraine that make drones and do not experience administrative pressure – is indeed a very serious threat. It cannot be ignored.

Medvedev

Chronicles of the special military operation
for April 23, 2024

Over the course of the day, Russian forces struck targets in Kharkiv, Poltava, Odesa and Dnipro with missiles, gliding aerial bombs and kamikaze drones.

In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces are storming the Kanal neighborhood on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. The enemy relies on a large number of defensive positions, and dense mining of approaches to the city is hampering the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.

In the Avdiivka direction, there are battles in the central part of Ocheretyne, with Russian forces clearing the northern outskirts of the village. By evening, there was unconfirmed information that Ukrainian formations had also begun withdrawing from the Novobakhmutivka area to the south.

In the Vuhledar direction, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces, after consolidating in Novomykhailivka, are advancing towards Paraskoviivka and Kostyantynivka. Battles continue in the adjacent Mashynobudivnyk gardening community.

rybar

Morning Summary on April 23, 2024

▪️Overnight, the Russian Armed Forces struck enemy targets in Odesa and Ochakiv in Mykolaiv Region, explosions were heard in Kyiv and Cherkasy Regions, as well as in Kryvyi Rih. Throughout the day, intensive destruction of targets in Kharkiv Region took place, with widespread footage of a TV tower being hit (https://t.me/dva_majors/40616) in Kharkiv.

▪️In the Kherson direction, the Russian Armed Forces resumed heavy assault operations in Krynky. FAB gliding bombs are actively used on the enemy’s bank, with mutual artillery shelling ongoing.

▪️On the Zaporizhia front, the Russian Armed Forces repelled enemy attacks in Robotyne and northwest of Verbove. The front line remains unchanged.

▪️In the Vremivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting active operations near Staromaiorske and Urozhayne, with the fortified positions built by the AFU since summer posing difficulties for their advance.

▪️On the South Donetsk direction, after consolidating in the recently liberated Novomykhailivka, the next targets for the Russian Armed Forces are Paraskoviivka and Kostyantynivka – important logistical points for the enemy. Heavy fighting is ongoing on the southern and eastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka.

▪️West of Avdiivka, the main event was a daring attack by the Russian Armed Forces that allowed them to establish a foothold in Ocheretyne. Clearing the settlement and consolidating there is still to come. The penetration into the enemy’s defenses reached up to 5 km. Fighting continues near the neighboring Novokalynove.

▪️In the east of Chasiv Yar, fierce battles are raging for every position. The enemy is trying to bring up reserves, and Zelenskyy voiced his delusions that the Russian Armed Forces allegedly plan to capture the city by May 9.

▪️In Belgorod Region, a massive attack was repelled overnight, with many targets shot down. Enemy UAVs were also destroyed during the day over the Yakovlevsky and Belgorod districts. The governor reported that a total of 120 residents of the region have been killed and 651 injured in shelling by the AFU in Belgorod Region.

▪️In Bryansk Region, the settlement of Suzemka was shelled. The enemy fired 53 rounds at the civilian population of the DPR, with one civilian injured in Horlivka as a result of a UAV drop.

Two Majors

WAR UPDATE: That Was Quick! Russia Penetrated Central Ocheretyne, Exploited Ukrainian Gap

Putin’s Answer To USA’s $61 Bn Aid Move For Ukraine? Russia Claims Novomikhailovka Captured

NATO & UKRAINE Are SHOCKED By Russia’s New Effective Tactics Near BELOGOROVKA┃RF Entered OCHERETINO

Ukrainian Brigade Routed | RUAF Capture Novobakhmutivka

RF advances in Ocheretyne & Novobakhmutivka [23 April 2024]

[ SITREP ] Ukraine Frontlines having Diarrhea; Ukraine War Summary

 Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (23 April 2024)

▫️The Zapad Group of Forces’ units seized more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 20 servicemen, two motor vehicles, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one 152-mm D-20 howitzer.

▫️The Yug Group of Forces units improved the tactical position along the front line as a result of active actions and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 79th Air Assault and 46th Airmobile brigades near Konstantinovka, Paraskoviyevka, and Ostroye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 500 servicemen, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, five motor vehicles, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, as well as three field ammunition depots.

▫️The Tsentr Group of Forces’ units improved the tactical situation and repelled nine counter-attacks of the assault groups of the 25th Airborne, 59th Motorised Infantry, 68th and 71st jaeger, 23rd, 24th, 100th and 115th mechanised brigades of the AFU near Rozovka, Umanskoye, Novobakhmutovka, Pervomayskoye, Ocheretino, Netaylovo, Berdychi, and Semyonovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses included up to 360 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 howitzer, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one U.S.-made 105-mm M101 gun.

▫️The Vostok Group of Forces’ units captured more advantageous lines and defeated the 59th Motorised Infantry, 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigades close to Staromayorskoye, Vodyanoye, and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 95 servicemen, three motor vehicles, one 155-mm French-made CAESAR self-propelled artillery system, as well as one Nota electronic warfare station.

▫️The units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, 121st and 126th territorial defence brigades close to Rabotino (Zaporozhye region), Berislav and Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).

The enemy lost up to 70 servicemen, one armoured personnel carrier and two pick-up trucks, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have obliterated one U.S.-made MIM23 HAWK anti-aircraft missile launcher and hit a drone depot of the 113th Territorial Defence Brigade, AFU manpower and hardware in 115 areas.

▫️Air defence systems shot down 104 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, one Tochka-U tactical missile, six U.S.-made HIMARS and Olkha missiles, as well as four French-made Hammer guided air-to-surface bombs during the day.