The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 13 2024

Russia Opens New Front

Russian May Day Offensive Continues

RUSSIA MARCHES ON AT KHARKIV FRONT; More advances at Avdiivka Front – Frontline Changes Report

Russia Takes 4 More Villages; Ukraine Army Chief’s Confession As Moscow Says 1500 Kyiv Troops Killed

Russian forces expand control in Kharkiv | The defense collapses in Krasnohorivka [12 May 2024]

Russian Army Close To Capture 10th Town In Kharkiv; How Zelensky’s Men Are Losing Control

Russian Forces Storm Vovchansk & Capture 2 Villages Near Kharkiv | Central Netailove Captured

[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 809 (12/5): KHARKIV reinforcements is here; No let up in rest of the fronts

Heavy battles take place in Vovchansk | Large losses reported [13 May 2024]

Russian Forces Entered Vovchansk l Massive Russian Advance In Bakhmut And Avdiivka Front

The West increasingly understands that Ukraine has exhausted its military potential even for a defensive war, not to mention a counteroffensive. Ukrainians do not want war, mobilization has been completed by 20%, the popular Commander-in-Chief has been dismissed, and corruption has become comprehensive, while the Office of the President is losing control over the internal political situation.

The Russian offensive on the border of the Kharkov region may increase pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to begin peace negotiations, writes The New York Times.

According to journalists, the immediate threat to Kharkov, the siege of the city and the flight of its residents could create “the impression that after two years, hundreds of thousands of victims and billions of dollars, little has changed.”

“That, in turn, is likely to increase pressure on Ukraine’s leaders to agree to a truce with Russia, something Ukrainian officials have so far refused to do, saying it would bolster Putin’s appetite for aggression,” the NYT writes.

The current advance of the Russian Federation in the Kharkov region is the fastest during the entire war, except for the very beginning, journalists have calculated. According to analysts, the Russian Federation decided to take advantage of the shortage of ammunition and people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stretching the front and thus increasing the chances of a breakthrough.

Some military experts say, however, that the events in the Kharkov region will not change the general direction of the war and the parties are still in a “tactical dead end.” Other experts say the offensive has put Ukraine “in a very dangerous situation.”

Our sources in the General Staff learned that Syrski will not transfer large reserves to stop the enemy’s offensive in the Kharkov direction; the Ukrainian Armed Forces now have big problems with rotation and personnel. The commander-in-chief does not believe in the seriousness of the Russian army to attack Kharkov, which means there is no need to remove equipment from the eastern front.

Our source reports that Commander-in-Chief Syrsky wants to extinguish the entire failure in the Kharkov direction, including with the help of Azov (third assault, etc.).
As the source says. Bankova has a good opportunity to weaken Azov by putting it into the meat grinder.

We have been writing for a long time that the internal confrontation between office and independent military units is growing. It was not for nothing that the DUK Right Sector was disbanded.

Our source in the General Staff said that the third assault brigade AZOV ignores Syrsky’s orders and refuses to move to positions near Kharkov. After the unsuccessful operation in Avdievka, AZOV lost almost half of its personnel and is now restoring reserves, but the Commander-in-Chief insists that it is the third brigade that participates in the most acute situations on the front line.

The West is surprised by the ease of the Russian offensive on Kharkov and the complete absence of defense lines, on which billions have been spent.

“The Russians just walked in” – the Ukrainian Armed Forces complained about Ukraine’s unpreparedness for the Russian offensive

Despite statements by Ukrainian officials, Kyiv appears to be poorly prepared for a Russian offensive in the Kharkov region, the BBC writes.

The commander of one of the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Denis Yaroslavsky, in communication with the publication, complained about the lack of defensive lines in the region.

“There was no first line of defense. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in and there were no mined fields,” he said.

Yaroslavsky showed a BBC journalist a drone video of small columns of Russian troops simply crossing the border without encountering resistance.

According to him, Ukrainian officials claimed that huge amounts of money were spent on the construction of defensive structures, however, as he noted, there were simply no defensive structures.

“Either it was negligence or corruption. It wasn’t a failure. It was a betrayal,” said the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Yaroslavsky also noted: “Now, due to the fact that someone did not build fortifications, we are losing people again.”

Ukraine is starting to redeploy units from Zaporozhia and the Donbas front to Kharkov

The elite 79th Air Assault Brigade which has been operating in the Marinka sector of the front is said to be in the process of disengaging for redeployment

Very hard and difficult choice for Kiev to make, what units can you afford to pull out of the line and where?

And how do you compensate, at all, when and if you do, as Russia is almost certainly keeping close watch to see where the lines are weakening and they can apply pressure

Slobozhansky direction: fighting in Volchansk and pushing out AFU reserves
situation as of 10:00 on May 13, 2024

On the morning of the fourth day of the Russian army’s offensive in the north of the Kharkiv Region, no large-scale breakthroughs of the enemy’s defenses have been recorded. After clearing the “gray” border zone, Russian assault units focused on breaking through the AFU strongholds and defensive lines, as well as pushing out the reserves.

▪️By the evening of May 12, the Russian army took the meat processing plant in the north of Volchansk and was clearing the shoe factory: these are the two main buildings on the northern outskirts of the city, from where the AFU controlled the approaches. The forest belts and fields from the north have been completely cleared and passed under the control of the Russian troops.

The “fog of war” covers the areas to the east of the city: an offensive is underway from the direction of Tikhiy, but the scale of the advance is still unclear.

But judging by the strikes of the Ukrainian artillery deployed in Rubizhne and Pechenegy, Russian groups managed to advance towards the center of the city. However, there is no surrender of Volchansk: units of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the AFU arrived on the southern outskirts of Volchansk and in the Belyi Kolodez located 12 km southeast.

▪️At the same time, the AFU are trying to solve the logistics problem and establish supply through the Siversky Donets River: attempts are being made to build a pontoon crossing in the vicinity of Stary Saltiv.

▪️In the Hlyboke – Oleinikovo – northern outskirts of the village of Lukiiantsi – Zelene area, no changes have occurred: the Russian troops are still pushing out the approaching reserves. Assault units from the Poltava Region are arriving in the Kharkiv Region, which should strengthen the defensive capabilities of the AFU in this area.

▪️Fighting continues along the line Izbytske – Starytsia – Buhrovatka, but we cannot yet confirm the capture of settlements.

🔻A scandal is erupting in the Ukrainian media space due to territorial losses: the head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, blamed the commander-in-chief of the AFU, Oleksandr Syrskyi. The public spat is intended to divert attention from problems at the front and “entertain” the population, while the Ukrainian command is frantically trying to solve the problem of the crumbling northern front.

Slobozhansky direction: Russian Armed Forces have captured a third of Volchansk
situation as of 6:00 pm on May 13, 2024

🔻The Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the north of the Kharkiv Region: there are first confirmations of successful progress in Volchansk:

▪️The territory of Volchansk north of the dividing Volchya River and east of Soborna Street has practically completely come under the control of Russian forces. Yes, sporadic presence of the enemy may remain, but the defense in the northern part of the city has been broken.

By mid-day, battles were raging in the area of Korolenko and Gogol Streets, and the territory of the Central Park and the high-rise residential area east of the lyceum were blocked and partially came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

▪️On the western outskirts of Volchansk, the presence of the enemy remains (including ex-Rus from the RDK).

But after the destruction of the bridge across the Volchya River on Privokzalna and Gagarina Streets, the enemy has only two bridges left – a pedestrian bridge in the area of the Volchansk Central District Hospital on Shevchenko Street and a road bridge on Soborna Street (T-21-08 highway).

Another road bridge (Gurkanovsky), located further east at the Volchansk Aggregates Plant, if not completely under the control of the Russian army by this time, is at least under the fire control of the Russian Armed Forces.

▪️Nothing is known yet about attempts to storm the Volchansk Aggregates Plant, but it is possible that the enemy may try to rely on the plant to maintain a foothold in the northern part of the city. Two other strongholds are the Volchansk Lyceum No. 1 and the hospital complex, where the most intense fighting is reportedly taking place.

🔻In other areas of the offensive in the north of the Kharkiv Region, the advance is not as large-scale.

▪️Footage has emerged from the liberated Hlyboke from two days ago: the flag of the Russian Federation is flying on the eastern outskirts of the village. Fighting continues in the Lira-1 gardeners’ association on the eastern bank of the Travenske Reservoir, and after taking the gardeners’ association, we can talk about the start of the assault on Lyptsі.

▪️South of Morokhivka and Oleynikovo, as well as north of Lukiiantsi, the activity of Ukrainian UAVs and the movement of small groups of Russian infantry are recorded. Apparently, the enemy retains control over Lukiiantsi, and reinforcements are being redeployed to Lyptsі both from the “mixed salad” of the Territorial Defense and from the GUR units.

▪️Under Starytsia and Buhrovka, the Russian Armed Forces are clearing the villages, but it is still too early to speak of the capture of the settlements.

🔻In the near future, the completion of the clearing of northern Volchansk should be expected: the tactics of the Russian troops to cut 

Against the backdrop of the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv Region, it is interesting to observe the reaction in the Western media. For example, the New York Times reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-kharkiv.html) that Ukrainian commanders are blaming each other for failures, the defense line was unprepared, and the so-called Ukraine is exhausted by the war.

In this case, the interest lies not in the apocalyptic pictures painted by the journalists about the situation of the Kyiv regime, but in how the theses and assessment of the actions of the AFU in the materials of major American and European publications have literally changed on command.

After all, a year ago, the same newspapers were telling completely opposite things, showering the so-called Ukraine with compliments and predicting (https://t.me/rybar/51558) its successful counteroffensive against the “backward Russian army.” And they did not stop (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html) doing this even in August 2023, when the failures of the AFU became obvious.

In general, another vivid illustration of what the analysis from supposedly renowned Western publications or think tanks often represents, at least when it comes to the Ukrainian conflict.
 

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Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President demands that Syrsky stop the offensive of the Russian army at the front so as not to disrupt the summit in Switzerland. The fall of Avdiivka played a negative role at the Munich Conference, when the partners refused to sign a number of agreements and provide military equipment to Ukraine.

 Heavy fighting near Volchansk and Avdeevka: The idea behind the strikes in Kharkov region is to stretch our forces and undermine the moral and motivational ability of Ukrainians to defend themselves – Zelensky

 - “Special attention is paid to the Kharkov region.The defensive battles are fierce – in a significant part of our border area. There are villages that have actually turned from a gray zone into a combat zone – and in some of them the enemy is trying to gain a foothold, and some of them are simply being used for further advancement.

 - On the Donetsk direction, the situation is no less tense. In fact, the idea behind the attacks in the Kharkov region is to disperse our forces and undermine the moral and motivational basis of the Ukrainians’ ability to defend themselves.

 - The Pokrovsk direction is, despite everything, the most difficult. On this day alone, there have already been 30 battles in the Pokrovsk direction. The Limansk and Vremya directions are also difficult. Kramatorsk. Kupyansk.”
 

Ukrainian channels began to delete Zelensky’s quote about “powerful fortifications in the Kharkov region” from December 2023

“I am grateful to the region and the city. They managed to team up with military specialists and construction companies. What they did in the Kharkov region, I think, is powerful”
 

For the failure in the Kharkov fortification case, they are urgently looking for scapegoats.
If such a “goat” is not urgently found, then the Head of the Kharkov OVA, Sinegubov, may soon be removed. He’s a poor guy running around paying everyone. Orders jeans and posts in the cart.
They say that even a roof in the shape of Ermak may not help, since Andrei Borisovich always gets rid of toxic characters, even if you “contributed” large sums to the OP.
In 2022, Sinegubov defeated the head of the SBU of Kharkov and remained in power, but relaxed and could not refuse to cut budgets. Even in those days, his career hung by a thread due to theft and corruption. Then Ermak helped him. Now Ermak himself will let him go to the scaffold to whiten himself and Ze.

In fact, the fate of Sinegubov depends on whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces can use the lives of its soldiers to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.
If the dynamics of the Russians continue, and the offensive continues for at least another two or three weeks, the “blue” will be removed from the post of Head of the OVA and there will be many ostentatious arrests for corruption in order to reduce indignation in society and among the military (for now, the military’s mouths have been shut, by order from above, but how long?).

Many of us know are already packing their bags and starting to make off with the dough…

The main appointment in the Kremlin, which directly affects the Ukrainian crisis, is the replacement of Defense Minister Shoigu with Belousov.
We agree with our colleagues that the main thing has happened in the Kremlin’s strategy – a change in priority. Now the main thing is not the purchase of foreign components and the assembly of new toys in the Russian Federation, but the creation of a full cycle within the country for the defense industry. What Ukraine was never able to do. (In Ukraine, all toys are copies of foreign ones, which are assembled 95% from foreign components).

In the military case itself, everything remains the same. Gerasimov remained at the helm, but the Russian Ministry of Defense completely changed its approach.
One thing is clear. The Ukrainian crisis will feel these changes only by the end of 2024, and if Belousov does what he was appointed to do, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ problems will increase tenfold.

According to our source, the Kremlin will also introduce a new type of units in the army – unmanned ones. Where the production cycle + operator training cycle will be interconnected. This will no longer be at some “amateur” level, as is now the case in the Russian Federation and Ukraine – it will be a completely new professional level.

For Bankova, of course, this is a bad sign.
Since in Ukraine itself, the change from Minister of Defense Reznikov to Umerov did not lead to any fundamental changes other than redistribution.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces decided to “congratulate” the Black Sea Fleet in their own way on the holiday. Since early morning, due to the enemy’s air activity in Crimea, the missile danger alert has been triggered three times.

During the first attack, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, four Storm Shadow missiles and seven drones launched from the Kherson region were shot down.

The next two alerts in southern Russia were false alarms due to flights of cruise missile carriers over the Mykolaiv region. Given how much the Western curators love symbolic dates for their attacks, this is clearly not the last attempt for today.
 

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The Russian air defense military base on Mount Ai-Petri was damaged as a result of the morning missile attack on Crimea. The commander of the military unit died

Today, May 13, at around 6 am, several missiles (presumably Storm Shadow) attacked military unit 85683 on Mount Ai-Petri in Crimea, sources in the emergency services of the annexed region told ASTRA. On the mountain there is a “secret” military air defense base of the 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.

As a result of the missile hit, the territory of the military unit was damaged, the commander of military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov, and another serviceman were killed. There are also wounded, their number is being determined.

During the Soviet years, the Radio Engineering Center for Long-Range Reconnaissance and Air Defense Guidance was created on the top of Mount Ai-Petri. The domes of protective radar structures in the form of balls often attracted the attention of tourists. Radar systems are hidden under these domes, Crimea previously wrote . Realities.” A military camp has also been set up for those who service these facilities.

The 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment is a military formation within the radio engineering troops of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Formed in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation on the basis of the 40th radio-technical brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force. The headquarters is located in the city of Sevastopol.

In the photo: an air defense base on the top of Mount Ai-Petri, archival photo; archival publications about military unit 85683.

As a result of yesterday’s shelling of Belgorod by the AFU, 19 people were killed – Governor Gladkov

- The main part of the removal of the rubble of a residential building on Shchorsa Street has been completed. The bodies of 15 people have been recovered from under the rubble as of today.

- 27 people have been injured. 10 of them have been given outpatient care and have already been released home. 6 people are now being prepared to be sent to federal clinics, including a one-and-a-half-month-old baby with his mom. 11 people remain in local hospitals.

- We have 36 people in temporary accommodation centers. These are the residents whose apartments were damaged.
 

Almost all parts of Ukraine’s theater of operations are currently experiencing problems for the Ukrainian armed forces related to Syrskiy’s redeployment of forces to Kharkov. In the next few days, the withdrawal of troops and the withdrawal of reserves will entail the retreat of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Ugledar, Krasnoarmeysk and Chasov Yar sections of the front.

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Assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces went on the offensive to the west of Semenovka (Avdeevka direction)

Advancement is reported between Novopokrovskoye and Umanskoye.
 

The situation at Chasov Yar:

Units of the 98th Airborne Troops have improved their tactical situation.

The fighters expanded control zone west of the Ivanovo direction and reached the dry area in front of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. This made it possible to create a springboard for a further breakthrough.

There are currently fighting in the eastern part of the microdistrict Canal where they managed to recapture several positions.

Artillery is also working in the microdistrict Noviy, where over the past 24 hours up to 2 enemy airborne assault forces have been destroyed.

Assault groups act now in the garden community (dacha) – in the boiler room and garages.

Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 13, 2024

Over the past day, Russian forces struck several targets in the front-line and rear areas on the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. In turn, the AFU struck the ATACMS MLRS on Krasnodoн in the LPR, and continue to strike civilian infrastructure in the border areas of Belgorod and Kursk Regions.

In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces are advancing in several sectors and fighting in the industrial zone of Volchansk, as well as in the multi-story buildings on the eastern outskirts of the city. In the area of Hlyboke, heavy fighting continues on the approaches to Lyptsi.

In the Bakhmut direction, Russian Armed Forces units are storming enemy positions in the Canal neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, and also striking positions in the city and its environs.

In the Avdiivka direction, there are battles in the forest belts along the railway to the west of Ocheretyne, as well as on the approaches to Novoaleksandrivka and Kalynove.

In the Kherson direction, there are ongoing clashes in the island zone north of Kozachi Lahery and in Krynky. Russian forces struck a UAV crew and several dozen drones north of Mylove on the right bank of the Dnipro.

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‘You Cannot Talk To Russia Like This’: Lavrov Warns U.S.-led West, Fumes At Russia-less Peace Talks

Russia Bombarded Ukraine With Over 330 Missiles, 2,628 Shahed Drones In Just 6 Months

 Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (13 May 2024)

Part I

▫️ The Sever Group of Forces has improved the tactical situation and delivered strikes at manpower and hardware of the 125th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Volchansk, Neskuchnoye, Liptsy, and Veseloye (Kharkov region).

In addition, five counter-attacks of AFU assault groups were repelled close to Glubokoye and Tikhoye (Kharkov region).

The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 250 servicemen, two tanks, two armoured fighting vehicles, and 17 motor vehicles.

In counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, Buk-M1 and Strela-10 anti-aircraft systems, as well as four MLRS launchers, to include Uragan, Czech-made Vampire, and Croatian-made RAK-SA-12.

▫️ The Zapad Group of Forces has taken more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on the 63rd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 117th Territorial Defence Brigade near Kirovsk and Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Thirteen counter-attacks of the 4th Tank, 3rd, 21st, 63rd, 116th mechanised, 77th Airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and 4th National Guard Brigade were repelled by the Russian Armed Forces near Kislovka (Kharkov region), Nevskoye, Novoyegorovka, Makeyevka, and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

The enemy lost up to 80 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, three pick-up trucks, two 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, and one 152-mm Giatsint-S gun.

▫️ The Yug Group of Forces has improved the situation along the front line and delivered strikes at manpower and hardware of the 79th Air Assault Brigade and the 81st Airmobile Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kleshcheyevka, Antonovka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Over the past 24 hours, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have repelled three counter-attacks of assault groups of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and the 41st Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Spornoye and Razdolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 540 servicemen, two tanks, including the German-made Leopard-2A1, two armoured fighting vehicles, 11 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, and one Italian-made 105-mm Melara Mod 56 self-propelled artillery system.

▫️ The Tsentr Group of Forces have improved the tactical situation as a result of successful actions and inflicted fire damage on units of the 24th, 47th, and 100th mechanised brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Novosyolovka Pervaya, Katerinovka, and Novopokrovskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation repelled seven counter-attacks launched by the 92nd Assault, 142nd Infantry, 68th, 71st jaeger, 24th, 110th mechanised brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Shumy, Ocheretino, and Netaylovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 395 servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one Croatian-made 122-mm RAK-SA-12 MLRS launcher.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (13 May 2024)

Part II

▫️The Vostok Group of Forces has taken more advantageous lines and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 21st National Guard Brigade near Velikaya Novosyolka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 135 servicemen, one tank, five motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one UK-made 155-mm AS-90 Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 100-mm Rapira anti-tank gun.

▫️The Dnepr Group of Forces has engaged the AFU 65th Mechanised Brigade, the 35th Marine Brigade, the 121st Territorial Defence Brigade close to Orekhov (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, Tyaginka, and Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 55 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 129 areas during the day.

One Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force was downed by Russia’s air defence forces. In addition, 33 unmanned aerial vehicles, six Tochka-U tactical missiles, 39 projectiles of Olkha, Chezh-made Vampire, and U.S.-made HIMARS, five French-made Hammer guided bombs, five U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, and four UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been shot down over the past 24 hours.