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The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 16 2024

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Slobozhansky direction: Advances of the Russian Armed Forces near Liptsy and fighting in Volchansk
Situation as of the end of May 16, 2024

In the course of the offensive in the Kharkiv Region, Russian forces continue to engage in battles in the northern part of Volchansk, as well as on the approaches to Lipetsk. The advance is proceeding with heavy fighting and is accompanied by the assault of numerous strongholds.

🔻In Volchansk, Russian Armed Forces units are storming the industrial zone of the Aggregate Plant, which they reached some time ago. Next to the factory gate is the Gurkanovsky Bridge over the Volchya River, which serves as a natural defensive line and divides the city in two.

Further advance along Gurkanovsky Street and the Lenin Street to the west may be complicated by the high density of mining in the private sector development. In the southern part of the city, the enemy has also set up firing positions and is preparing for defense.

Another area of fierce clashes is the territory of the Volchansk City Hospital. In the morning, a video appeared with servicemen on the territory of the complex: most likely, the footage was taken a couple of days ago, but it objectively confirms the control of the Russian Armed Forces over the object.

🔻On another section of the front, after the liberation of the village of Hlubokoye, Russian forces advanced into the territory of the Lira-1 Gardeners’ Partnership, reaching the outskirts of Lipetsk. No changes were recorded in the area of Zelene – the offensive is complicated by minefields and a network of strongholds around.

At the moment, the enemy is transferring more and more forces: in particular, in addition to the units of the 92nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the personnel of the “Lyut” Brigade have arrived in one of the sectors. At the same time, reinforcements from the newly mobilized are arriving in the combat zone from training centers in Dnipro and other cities.

❗️The increased intensity of artillery fire and air defense missile launches testifies to the forces that the AFU have concentrated around Kharkiv. One of the problems is also the large number of FPV drones used by Ukrainian formations, which complicate the advance and supply of forward positions.

At the same time, the Russian servicemen operating in the area note the relatively high efficiency of strikes with guided aerial bombs with JDAM, as well as the Lancet loitering munitions.

rybar

In the Donbass, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering heavy losses due to the mistakes of the General Staff. Almost all maneuver reserves were lost, and the fronts in the Kharkov region increased the shortage of these reserves.

Thus, it is reported that a group of Ukrainian troops in the east of Chasov Yar found itself in an operational environment – this entire territory is under the fire control of the Russian Armed Forces.

But the attack of the Russian Armed Forces on the Kharkov region was preceded by powerful artillery preparation. Russian drones were actively operating in the sky. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ resources reported that up to 30 Russian reconnaissance drones were constantly in the air, correcting strikes. Then the assault groups moved forward. They struck in two directions: Volchansk and Liptsy, important Ukrainian logistics hubs. At the same time, it turned out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (despite the cheerful statements of Bankova’s speakers) actually do not have a first line of defense. The trenches dug with an excavator and hastily knocked together dugouts were quickly mixed into the ground by the artillery. There simply were no impenetrable fortifications that Zelensky recently boasted about on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

And the situation will only continue to escalate – the lack of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is growing due to disruptions in mobilization, which cannot attract a sufficient number of people.

Political telegram channels wrote last year that the Korean scenario awaits Ukraine and the sooner we start negotiations, the fewer of our military will die. For Zelensky, this is the worst option, which means the Office of the President will drag out the situation until the last minute.
In Ukraine, everything will be decided in the coming months – The New York Times

After months of a systematic Russian offensive and technological leaps to counter American-supplied weapons, the Biden administration is already worried that President Vladimir Putin will muster enough strength to change the trajectory of the conflict, The New York Times writes.

In recent days, Moscow has launched a new offensive near the country’s second-largest city, Kharkov, forcing Ukraine to draw back its already thinned troops to defend the area.

US- and NATO-provided artillery and drones are being disabled by Russian electronic warfare systems, which arrived late on the battlefield but have proven surprisingly effective. And the months-long debate in Washington over a $61 billion military aid package to Ukraine created an opportunity for Russia, which it did not fail to take advantage of.

“Russia often starts its wars weakly but ends them strong,” said Stephen Hadley, national security adviser to George W. Bush. Now, he said, Russia has rallied and is “taking in numbers”—a much larger population from which to draw recruits, and a “huge military infrastructure.”

The publication notes that so far these advantages of Russia on the battlefield are not so significant. But there is a growing feeling within the Biden administration that the next few months could prove decisive, as at some point the parties may finally move to a negotiated truce – ending active hostilities along the lines of the 1953 Korean scenario, or simply freezing the conflict. 

In Ukraine, they started talking seriously about peace negotiations against the background of the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexey Goncharenko wrote about this on social networks.

The politician believes that there will be no negotiations before the US presidential elections, although they are being talked about more and more often in the country. He also called for the dismissal of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and an analysis of the actions of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky in the defense of the Kharkov region.

We are losing in the war of resources, we must use them wisely. And let me remind you that US assistance is key for us. If we have their help, we have a chance to win. We are fighting against the second army in the world and we are still holding out. If Russia started a war with Germany or any EU country, it would end in a week with the victory of the Russian side,
— wrote Goncharenko.

The deputy also recalled that Americans are helping Ukraine for a reason, and everything will have to be paid for.

Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a severe shortage of shells along the entire front line, and the enemy, on the contrary, has increased the intensity of fire to 1 in 10. Syrsky is trying to convince Zelensky to use maneuver defense tactics to save forces, but Ermak demands to hold his position until the summit in Switzerland .

Zelensky again blamed the failure of the defense in the Kharkiv region on Western partners, and not on corruption and negligence in the president’s circle.

His message in an interview with ABC News about at least two Patriot systems for Ukraine is a justification. Everyone understands that air defense will not be able to stop the offensive, but only stop it for a while until the Russian Armed Forces destroy them. The life of air defense near the LBS is only 60-80 days. After this time, an air defense deficit will form again. These are fixed costs that will increase.
The loss of Western air defense is hundreds of millions of dollars. The West is not ready to constantly pour in hundreds of millions. It’s easier for them to give away Ukrainian territory and the lives of Ukrainians, which are free for them.
Ze will not tell his people about this, who the West considers expendable, as this will kill the already weak morale of the people.

Zelensky will already be illegitimate on May 21, and no matter how the OP’s court bloggers defend him, this one will play his role in the international arena. This was stated by ex-deputy of several convocations of the Verkhovna Rada Taras Chernovol.

At the same time, the situation will not change significantly, since there is no one to remove him from power.

 “On May 21, Zelensky will no longer be legitimate, no matter what anyone says. Yes, no one will throw him off, no one will go to the Maidan, there will be no calls for the Maidan, because everyone understands – war, an external enemy. But the main thing is that the legitimacy is questionable for the outside world, he will already be a “lame duck”, they are already nervous, they are already afraid of all this. This will play a certain role. We need to draw certain conclusions and stop playing along with the Z-team. Every journalist who knows that he is lying, that Zelensky is doing evil, is doing everything so that we lose Ukraine. In any case, don’t publicly support evil, this is at least a little help so that we don’t lose the country.”
, said the politician in a video published on his YouTube channel.

Chernovol believes that in 2019, society made a serious mistake by voting for Zelensky and his team, programming the problems that now exist in the state.

 “Nations and states very rarely die in wars; as a rule, they become stronger and united in wars. And they die in elections. In 2019, the Ukrainian state received a mortal wound, this could not be ignored. The majority of the Ukrainian population did not need this state; they thought that they could live without it. Already several hundred thousand Ukrainians have not survived. When the 2019 vote happened, everything we have was pledged. It is almost impossible to correct this now, especially in war conditions; step by step we are losing territories and the state. But we will have one last chance to fix all this, there won’t be a second one.”
, he added.

Our source in the OP reported that the Office of the President prohibited the Ukrainian media from interviewing Budanov, who became the main actor of public sympathy among the military. Bankovaya understands that Zaluzhny’s electorate will quickly flow to the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate and he will sharply gain popularity.

Zelensky blamed the whole world for what is happening in Kharkov

In an interview with ABC television, which was recorded in one of the hospitals where soldiers of the Ukrainian army are recovering, Zelensky emphasized that now all countries must help Kiev contain the Russian offensive:

It’s the whole world’s fault. The world gave Putin the opportunity to occupy our country, but now, right now, the world can help us.

Journalists claim that Zelensky “always tries not to criticize the United States,” but this time he was “a little more frank than usual.”

In particular, he commented succinctly on Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Kiev: Ukraine needs money right now.
 

The commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are urgently transferring Lvov border guards to the Kharkov region

Interesting news is emerging from the Lvov region. According to local authorities, there has been a significant increase in the outflow of Ukrainian citizens abroad, with more than 25 thousand people crossing the Polish border in just a few days. Such reports are surprising, especially considering the tightening of mobilization laws.

Is possible that this surge in people leaving is linked to the weakening of border control resulting from the transfer of border guards to the Kharkov region. It seems that due to a lack of reserves, Kiev is compelled to deploy personnel from various regions, including Lvovv. Under these circumstances, it’s understandable that many citizens are taking advantage of the opportunity to freely travel to Poland in the absence of border guards.

It’s worth noting that the transfer of border guards signals a broader trend – as losses in the Armed Forces of Ukraine mount, there will likely be an increasing need to involve personnel from various government agencies in defense efforts. This may even extend to employees of the TCC and the police, especially since there have been recent proposals to deploy police officers to the front lines.

The situation in the north of the Kharkov region is analyzed by @politadequate:

The new active direction that we activated in the north is divided into two unequal (according to the current configuration of the front) parts by the Seversky Donets river.

Our main forces in this direction can be deployed on any of its banks. Ukrainian command must take into account both options.

If is on the right bank, this is a way to the immediate approaches to Kharkov and a direct threat to it. Whether this scenario includes urban battles is a big question, but economic life in the city in this case, even without urban battles, still ends, and a large flow of people leaving the city begins. The economic importance of the enemy’s second city is thus practically nullified. (Unacceptable, cannot be allowed by Ukraine)

If we choose the left bank, it is not just Volchansk, it is the entire funnel between the Seversky Donets and Oskol rivers, narrowing in depth. The same Oskol, on the left bank of which the AFU group of several tens of thousands of men is defending. And the deeper our hypothetical advance follows into the interfluve, the stronger is the threat for this group to be slammed. Even doing all in an organized manner, while maintaining structure and combat effectiveness, the challenge of taking the group to the right bank of Oskol is a practically impossible task.

Therefore, the loss of positions in the interfluve (and under the cover of the battles in Volchansk, a separate approach noticeably to the east is not ruled out) is also unacceptable, it cannot be allowed either.

And it turns out that on our side there is complete freedom of choice between the two banks of the Donets, and for AFU, there is the need to be strong everywhere under the threat of consequences, as if not for the course of military operations as a whole. And I’m not even starting to talk about the prospects of both expanding the front in other places along the border, and at the right moment sharply intensifying in any already relevant sector (the flow of news from Donbass has noticeably died down in recent days, there is no need to prevent the enemy from dragging reserves to the north).

We are waiting (impatiently, but patiently, such a paradox) for the next moves of our command. Despite the importance of what is now happening in the north in itself, it is much more important how this operation will fit into the general context of the beginning summer campaign.
 

In five days, the fighters of the “North” group managed to take control of a territory larger than the entire Ukrainian army during the so-called. “counter-offensive”

To say that this result was unexpected is to say nothing. It was not only the enemy who managed to surprise – our compatriots were no less surprised.

Ukrainian media are vying with each other screaming that the funds for strengthening the border were completely stolen. There were rumors on the RuNet about the “former assault squad of Wagner” – they say that only they can show such a result. What is it really?

And in fact:

1) Aeronautical reconnaissance – the Sever group has excellent aerial reconnaissance. There are a lot of Orlans, Zal and Supercams, smart operators. Two weeks ago, two Himars installations, which the AFU decided to drive to the border, were almost instantly identified and almost immediately punished (https://t.me/mayorthunder/773) along with the crews.

There are plenty of such examples – Sever operators have been training their skills for several months now, thanks to their efforts, the AFU were left in the Kharkov region with practically no air defense – almost all installations were calculated and knocked out.

With the beginning of the active phase, the artillery of the AFU, as a rule, simply does not have time to say its word – it is cut (https://t.me/warriorofnorth/346) down on the approach to the positions.

2) “Lancets” – apparently, the northerners have a lot of skilled operators and a lot of “Lancets” themselves. The number of successfully hit targets is simply off the charts. The reason for this success is in point 1, in good, suitable aerial reconnaissance.

3) Artillery – the “Sever” Group uses it in large quantities. The guns are new, the barrels are not worn out, the crews are well trained. Even conscripts take part (https://t.me/JustStupa/1938) in the celebration of life, and they do it well, damn it! The “Gods of War” have many high-precision “Krasnopols”, which they do not hesitate to use even against infantry.

4) Electronic warfare – the command of the group understands how dangerous Ukrainian FPV drones are and therefore not only our boxes are equipped with good, suitable electronic warfare (which, however, are used quite limitedly) – our infantry also goes on the attack with dome installations. That is why we do not see successful attacks on our attack aircraft – there are quite a few of them.

5) Stormtroopers – with such powerful support (see 4 previous points) it is much easier to storm than without it. The attack aircraft are also well prepared and equipped with more or less everything necessary.

As one comrade told me, “we are now seeing a new Russian army in action.” Yes, yes, the same army, where they worked extremely scrupulously on mistakes, absorbed two years of experience of the Northern Military District and now the enemy is not so terrible, and you can beat him with not very large forces.

Fyodor Gromov

Donetsk direction: Russian Armed Forces advance to the western outskirts of Heorhiivka
situation as of the end of May 16, 2024

In late April and early May, Russian troops were able to make significant advances (https://t.me/rybar/59774) in the center of Heorhiivka, capturing the territory of the “Silhozkhimiia” enterprise and the House of Culture building. After that, they continued the attack, reaching the western outskirts of the settlement.

▪️According to the latest data, today units of the Russian Armed Forces took the last two houses on Tsentralna Street, effectively driving Ukrainian formations out of the village. One building on the outskirts remained under the control of the enemy, but it was destroyed by an air strike, along with the basement.

At the moment, the fighters of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division are consolidating on the lines they have taken in Heorhiivka. However, it is not excluded that in parallel with the “pulling up of the flanks,” the Russian Armed Forces will attempt to “jump into” Maksymilianovka as well.

▪️In another area, fighting continues in Krasnohorivka, where Russian troops are trying to advance from the previously captured territory of the refractory plant. At the same time, the fate of several AFU units surrounded to the east of the city remains unknown.

▪️At the same time, Ukrainian formations continue to shell the Donetsk agglomeration, including with HIMARS MLRS. In particular, at one of the impact sites, debris resembling GSLDB bombs was found – this is the first documented use of such ammunition against residential areas of Donetsk.

rybar

The situation in Chasov Yar

98th brigade of Airborne Forces continue to move and carry out assault operations in the dachas and garages of the microdistrict Canal.

Since the very morning, the enemy has been trying to rotate personnel and supply material. We stop all this with FPV strikes and artillery.

Artillery is inflicting fire on personnel locations and settlements under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
 

 

  

About another combined strike on Crimea

🔻As we reported (https://t.me/rybar/60090) yesterday, Ukrainian forces carried out a new strike on the Crimean peninsula closer to midnight, using both drones and ballistic missiles.

▪️The first wave of drones was a diversion (at least, judging by the tactics): several drones from Odesa headed towards Sevastopol. At the same time, unmanned boats were launched from the southern part of the Odesa region.

▪️Around 22:50, air defense units engaged three targets near the Kruhlaya Bukhta of Sevastopol. Another object was shot down over Simferopol. At the same time, several UAVs were spotted west of Belbek: they were likely used for target designation and missile guidance, not for strikes.

▪️Approximately at the same time, the enemy launched several ATACMS missiles from the Yavkino area in the Mykolaiv region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, five missiles were shot down over the Belbek airfield. Debris damaged an object at the airfield, footage of which was again (https://t.me/rybar/60100) demonstrated by Ukrainian public pages.

▪️Numerous unmanned boats were also spotted near Tarkhankut and Chornomorske. One of them was destroyed north of Chornomorske – target designation was carried out by a Russian drone.

❗️However, a significant part of the unmanned boats did not reach the peninsula: most likely, they are waiting in the designated area (as has happened before). And in the coming days, we will hear about them again.

At the moment, an RQ-4B drone is on patrol in the western part of the Black Sea, which is rather an unusual area for it. It may be assessing the results of the strike on Belbek, as well as tracking new targets, for example, for the use of unmanned boats.

The tactics of the AFU are becoming increasingly clear: strikes on airfields and fuel and lubricant depots to force the aviation to redeploy to more distant bases, thereby increasing the response time to the alarm and clearing the airspace of Crimea before more massive attacks.

 

Destruction of Ukrainian USVs near Crimea

The Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of first 11 drones southwest of Sevastopol, and then information appeared about another unmanned surface vessel destroyed near Crimea. Together with yesterday’s (https://t.me/rybar/60103) USV near Chornomorske, a total of 13 units have been hit.

We would add that these are the same two groups of drones (https://t.me/rybar/60090) that went out to the Black Sea yesterday around midnight. They were observed near Tarkhankut, but then turned around and left for the waiting area in the western part of the water area.

Today around 1 pm, two groups of USVs totaling up to 24 units headed towards the Crimean peninsula, but their movement was detected in advance. Naval aviation helicopters were sent there to intercept them.

For several hours, the helicopter crews fired at the maneuvering drones, thereby thwarting the enemy’s plan. It is not entirely clear where the drones were heading, but we do not exclude the possibility of the Crimean Bridge.

An important point is that our units were able to detect the impending attack and subsequently destroy half of the USVs, which indicates an increase in capabilities both in terms of finding drones and destroying them, despite various modifications.

rybar

Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 16, 2024

Over the past day, the Russian Armed Forces struck targets in Myrhorod, as well as objects in the Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy Regions. In turn, Ukrainian formations carried out another combined attack on Crimea.

In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops are advancing with fighting towards the northern outskirts of Lyptsi, in Volchansk there are ongoing heavy clashes with the enemy, who is pulling up reserves towards Kharkiv.

In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian Armed Forces are striking the positions of the AFU in Chasiv Yar and its environs. Positional battles are ongoing north and south of the city.

In the Avdiivka direction, clashes continue north of Arkhanhel’ske and in the fields west of Berdychi.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops have reached the western outskirts of Georgiivka, clearing the last houses on Central Street. The development on Pishchana Street remains under the control of the enemy.

rybar

  

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (16 May 2024)   
   
Part I

▫️Units of the Sever Group of Forces advanced to the depth of the enemy’s defences and inflicted losses on units of the Kraken nationalist formation and the International Legion, as well as manpower and hardware of the AFU 125th Territorial Defence Brigade and 15th Border Guard Detachment near Dergachi, Liptsy, and Volchansk (Kharkov region).

Two enemy counter-attacks were repelled near Staritsa and Glubokoye (Kharkov region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 205 servicemen, three tanks, two armoured fighting vehicles, eight motor vehicles, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one 122-mm BM-21 Grad MLRS combat vehicle.

▫️Units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front lines and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 21st Mechanised Brigade near Krasny Liman (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Two counter-attacks launched by units of the AFU 44th Mechanised Brigade and 1st National Guard Brigade were repelled near Berestovoye (Kharkov region) and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 40 servicemen, three motor vehicles, and two 152-mm D-20 howitzers.

▫️Units of the Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 5th Assault Brigade and 116th Mechanised Brigade near Chasov Yar and Antonovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 520 servicemen, four armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, and one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system.

▫️Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 47th and 100th mechanised brigades near Novoaleksandrovka and Yevgenovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Eight counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 71st Jaeger Brigade, 92nd Assault Brigade, 23rd, 24th mechanised brigades, and 142nd Infantry Brigade were repelled near Arkhangelskoye, Solovyovo, Umanskoye, Netaylovo, and Novoselovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 390 servicemen, two tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one U.S.-made 155-mm M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (16 May 2024)   
   
Part II

▫️Units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade and 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Velikaya Novosyolka and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 125 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, and one 152-mm Giatsint-B howitzer.

▫️Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 65th Mechanised Brigade and 128th Mountain Assault Brigade near Nesteryanka and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 40 servicemen and four motor vehicles.

▫️️Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces wiped out one uncrewed surface vehicle depot.

In addition, strikes were delivered at one temporary deployment area of the Sonechko nationalist formation of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of the Defence of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries, as well as the enemy’s manpower and hardware clusters were engaged in 113 areas.

Air defence units shot down three MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force.

Moreover, 25 unmanned aerial vehicles, seven U.S.-made ATACMS and Tochka-U operational-tactical missiles, five U.S.-made HIMARS and Olkha MLRS projectiles, five French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, and four U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles were destroyed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key ally and State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin has issued a warning to the U.S. and Europe. He warned that Ukraine was dragging the United States and Europe into a major global war and on May 16 urged Western leaders to act responsibly to avoid a catastrophe. He said that Ukrainian lawmakers were trying to convince the United States to allow Kyiv to use US-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory.

‘Doesn’t Make Sense…’: UK Rejects Idea To Send Troops To Ukraine; Offers This Alternative


Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_16.html


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