The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 20 2024

U.S. Spooked By Putin Aide’s Threat? Gives Reality Check To Zelensky Over Striking Russian Territory

Vladimir Zelensky’s five-year term ends on May 20, but he has no plans to resign or call wartime elections, even as Ukraine’s love affair with the former comedian appears to be coming to an end. No, this is not a narrative from the Russian IPSO, but quite material from the authoritative publication The Economist (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/16/volodymyr-zelenskys-five-year-term-ends-on-may-20th), (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/16/volodymyr-zelenskys-five-year-term-ends-on-may-20th) which notes that the mood in Kiev is becoming increasingly alarming, and Zelensky’s opponents are muttering that his monopoly on power no longer stands up to criticism.

“Publicly, Mr Zelensky’s allies are optimistic about May 21: nothing changes and anything to the contrary is a Russian distraction. Privately, there are concerns about the impact that constant debate could have on public opinion. An internal poll, published by The Economist, shows that already one in six Ukrainians believe that Zelensky’s status will somehow change from May 21. These figures are still not enough to dominate public discourse, and they have nothing to do with the legal issue, but they create. undesirable background and may weaken international support over time,” the article says.

The Economist highlights that Ukraine’s love affair with the former comedian appears to be coming to an end.

“Ukrainians give him credit for his courageous role in the country’s survival. But fatigue, a constant stream of headlines about corruption and the apparent concentration of power in the hands of a half-dozen functionaries have weakened the bonds. The president himself appears increasingly tired, angry and withdrawn. Razumkov Center polling shows that trust in the presidency fell from a net positive rate of 71% in 2023 to a net positive rate of 26%,” the publication states.

As we see, the Western media almost openly writes that the legitimate president, who once enjoyed the enormous trust of the people, is quite formally becoming a usurper. Even petty African dictators, who tried to hold some kind of elections, did not allow themselves to do this. At the same time, with Zelensky’s transition to an illegal position, the likelihood of a successful coup d’etat increases sharply. Any force that has received the support of the West will only need to declare itself a legitimate power, and Zelensky has absolutely nothing to oppose to this. They can turn away from him in one moment, just as they turned away from Yanukovych (even though he was legitimate) or from Juan Guaido in Venezuela.
 

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President instructed the SBU to monitor all activities on the track of Zelensky’s legitimacy. Bankova believes that this issue will be actively discussed on social networks, which means it will sow doubts in society about why it is necessary to continue the war, since this ensures power for Zelensky.

Political scientist Vladimir Tsybulko commented on the recent statement by Speaker of Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk that the Verkhovna Rada has no doubt that Zelensky is legitimate, and those who do not have such confidence should contact the Constitutional Court. However, the political scientist noted that according to the latest clarification of the Constitutional Court, Zelensky is illegitimate after May 20.

 “Since May 20, everything is simple. There is a decision of the Constitutional Court of May 15, 2014, so let Stefanchuk take it and read it if he pokes us at Zelensky’s legitimacy!”
,” Tsybulko answered Stefanchuk.

Reference: The Constitutional Court of May 15, 2014 noted that the provisions of Art. 103 of the Constitution of Ukraine and its other articles, which define the constitutional and legal status of the President of Ukraine, do not contain rules establishing a term other than five years for which citizens can elect the head of state, regardless of the type of elections (regular or extraordinary). Enshrined Part 1 Art. 103 of the Basic Law, a five-year term is the only constitutionally established term for which the president is elected.

The political scientist said that Ukraine is in a conditional “stretch” position, because important events are coming for our country, including: the world summit, the NATO summit, as well as the EU elections, after which there will be a dialogue regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU. According to Tsibulko, the Ukrainian authorities are behaving undemocratically.

 “But if Stefanchuk is sure that the actions of the authorities contribute to the rapprochement of Ukraine with the European Union, then I deeply doubt it. And Stefanchuk will sit, I suspect, not in the speaker’s chair in the future, and not even in a chair, but on a bench. Because those atrocities that are against the deputy corps… . It’s just that this “dude” out of nowhere imagined that he was a slave owner of people’s deputies. In parliamentarism there are no directors of parliament, all parliamentarians are equal! He’s just a coordinator!”
, Tsibulko emphasized.

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President prohibited opposition deputies from appealing to the Constitutional Court on the issue of Zelensky’s legitimacy. At Bankova they consider this issue resolved, and everything else is cognitive operations of the IPSO; there will be no elections in Ukraine as long as there is a war.

Colleagues , there is a lot behind these publications in the Western press.

Firstly, Zelensky’s low ratings are confirmed. This is a message specifically to the Western audience, which must understand that Ze is a falling asset, losing popularity and profitability.
Secondly, they write that after May 20-21, Ze becomes a “controversial president” who artificially knocked out additional time for himself, which partially “contradicts” the Constitution.
Thirdly, society in Ukraine is beginning to believe that Zelensky is becoming illegitimate.
Fourthly, these publications should be clearly linked to the fact that the West always creates a backup plan for its game. Here we can assume for now that these are the first stones in the foundation of the plan to drain Ze, which will no longer be convenient for the directors.

We are watching… 

…For Russia, the final loss of legitimacy by the pseudo-president of the former Ukraine will not change anything. He already heads a political regime hostile to Russia, which is waging war on us. And the leaders of countries waging war are always considered a legitimate military target. For us, he is already a war criminal and the loss of his official status does not change anything. Although he, like any of his successors (although there is no need to talk about legal succession here), can be the party that signs the act of unconditional surrender. As, for example, Alfred Jodl or Wilhelm Keitel did this on behalf of Nazi Germany and its armed forces.
The further fate of Zelensky is not indifferent to us. He must be caught and tried for crimes against Russian and Ukrainian citizens. If it is impossible to deliver such a criminal, the rules practiced for terrorists should be applied. This is exactly the fate that befell Zelensky’s spiritual teacher, Stepan Bandera…

Who does Russia consider to be the head of Ukraine now?

A criminal regime does not and cannot have a legitimate ruler. He is always a criminal too. As for the nominal or actual leader (leader) of such a regime, it can be anyone. Any “pig in a yarmolka [hat],” recalling Gogol’s apt expression. For international law and for the collapsed state of “Ukraine”, his personality, based on normal legal positions, is indifferent. Such a person will remain for us only a criminal. However, it can be the subject of negotiations and a participant in signing the act of surrender, as I said earlier.

Dmitry Medvedev

Slobozhansky direction: capture of the Volchansk Aggregates Plant and battles near Liptsy
Situation as of 7:00 PM on May 20, 2024

Russian forces continue a local offensive in the north of Kharkiv Region amid regular counterattacks by the AFU. Clashes are ongoing along the entire line of contact from Lipetsk to Volchansk.

▪️On the western flank, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to breach the defenses on the northern outskirts of Lipetsk. They have not yet been able to capture the dominant height northeast of the village and the network of strongpoints on the way out of the settlement.

🔻The enemy retains the ability to move relatively calmly through the settlement, transferring reinforcements, which allows them to hold back the onslaught of Russian assault groups.

▪️On the Lukiiantsi – Hlyboke line, the Russian Armed Forces have occupied the forest between the settlements. The strongpoints located in the forest belts to the south remain under enemy control.

▪️On the eastern flank, in the area of Starytsia and Buhrovatka, positional battles are ongoing, and reports of the Russian Armed Forces advancing towards Synelnykove are premature at this time.

▪️In Volchansk, Russian assault groups have pushed the enemy out of the territory of the Volchansk Aggregates Plant, where fighting has been going on for the past week. They also managed to straighten out the line of control along Gagarin and Pushkin streets.

The enemy has published footage showing the presence of the Russian Armed Forces near the destroyed bridge on Privokzalna Street, leading to the southern bank. Currently, about 40% of the city is under the control of Russian forces.

The southern part of the city still has a presence of the enemy, both from the local Territorial Defense and more combat-capable units from the GUR and SSO of the so-called Ukraine.

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Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky promised Zelensky to hold Volchansk until the summit in Switzerland, and now artillery and heavy equipment from the Kyiv region are being transferred to Kharkov.

Zelensky’s “peace conference” in Switzerland does not promise any prospects for Ukraine

The main goal of the event was to attract the maximum number of countries from the Global South. It is worth recognizing that Kyiv’s Western partners have done a lot to put pressure on Putin’s partners among the BRICS countries. However, the Russian president’s visit to China showed that Beijing and Moscow remain strong partners and unspoken leaders of the developing world.

Moscow has made every effort to ensure that the Zelensky summit is an exclusively Western event. It is known that the President of South Africa, Brazil and the President of the People’s Republic of China refused to participate in the conference. In fact, the main beneficiaries of the “multipolar world”. The work was carried out both through diplomatic and other channels: the Kremlin spent enormous resources on anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western propaganda in Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia.

Another reason for the impending failure is the situation at the front. Nobody wants to be on the losing side. Why did Bankova decide that if the Global South did not take Ukraine’s side in 2022, when the situation was developing in our favor, then it would definitely support Kyiv in the face of the growing capabilities of the Russian army?

NYT: Ukraine asks US to provide more intelligence on targets in Russia

Ukraine has asked the Biden administration to provide more intelligence on the position of Russian troops and military facilities on Russian territory, The New York Times writes.

Ukraine’s requests have become more urgent in recent weeks as Russia has stepped up military operations in the Kharkоv region.

The US is providing Ukraine with some intelligence about Russian forces, such as troops being formed for potential attacks.

A former Ukrainian official said U.S. and allied intelligence would allow Ukraine to more accurately plan routes for its drones and guided missiles.

Increased activity of NATO aviation is increasingly being recorded off the coast of Crimea. At the time of the missile attack on Sevastopol on the night of May 19, a US Air Force RQ-4B Global Haw reconnaissance drone was on duty in the air southwest of the city.
 

NATO has already begun training Ukrainian Armed Forces militants in Ukraine – Financial Times

This was stated by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, clarifying that this supposedly will not lead to a war with Russia.

“I can’t imagine that if someone gets hurt there, those who sent their people will say: “This is the fifth article.” Let’s bomb Russia.” This is wrong. It’s not automatic. So these fears are unfounded,”
-  Kallas said.

The Prime Minister recalled that some countries have already sent their instructors to Ukraine, but the authorities of these states “do not take responsibility for the possible death of their citizens.”

Citing concerns that the Ukrainian Funding Bill passed last month won’t be enough for Ukraine to halt the progress of the Russian Armed Forces, the US has opened a discussion on potential steps to be taken in an effort to do so. While the inability to stop Russian forces using the billions of dollars of aid shouldn’t come as a surprise, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and commander of EUCOM, General Christopher Cavoli argued that it would in a House Armed Services Committee (HASC) meeting just days prior to passage of the bill last month.

the US isn’t just discussing future military aid packages, but will also consider ramifications  (https://www.csce.gov/hearings/closing-the-skies-liberating-ukraine/)of “closing the skies” in Ukraine. The ramifications of such a move are apparent to anyone who has been listening to official statements by the Russian government.

Nagasaki Nightmare

NATO bases in Ukraine will become a target for the Russian Armed Forces – Victoria Nuland

Former US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, in an interview (https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/time-ukraine-hit-bases-russia-victoria-nuland-110373092) with the American television channel ABC News, expressed her concerns about the deployment of instructors from NATO countries in Ukraine.

She fears that Western military installations in the country will be subject to missile attacks by Russian troops. Nuland believes that this will become a reason for escalation in the conflict.

She also noted that it is now difficult for Ukrainians to leave Ukraine to study in other countries.

Additionally, in this interview, Nuland said that she supports US strikes on Russian territory.

Let us remind you that Nuland, along with his cookies, is one of the architects of the state in which Ukraine met 2022. She is also responsible for starting the current conflict. Now she does not have serious power, and the current administration is acting rather cautiously, so it is quite possible that there will be no reason for such a strike.

Siversk Direction: Capture of Bilohorivka (no) and Advance near Rozdolivka (yes)
Situation as of the end of May 20, 2024

🔻Despite reports circulating online about the capture of Bilohorivka, our team was unable to confirm the village coming under the control of Russian forces – the fighting is still ongoing.

▪️In reality, there are some advances within the village boundaries, but control over the dominant height (the chalk quarry dump) still remains with the opponent.

▪️Yes, the advance to the north of the dump could have been interpreted as a “claim” on the capture of the entire village. However, the settlement is in complete ruins – just like the Popasna water treatment plant. Today, it is no more than a point on the map with half-buried basements, and the main tactical value is actually the chalk quarry dump.

🔻But a more significant advance is being recorded in another area of the Siversk direction – in the south.

❗️The Russian Armed Forces were able to advance north of Vesele towards Rozdolivka, dislodging Ukrainian formations from the forest belt and the stronghold. This allows them to occupy much more advantageous positions before a possible offensive on Rozdolivka and cutting the front line.

📌Of course, on the one hand, the capture of the long-suffering Bilohorivka would be a beautiful step, as it would mark the almost complete liberation of the occupied part of the Luhansk People’s Republic. If Bilohorivka is taken, then after that only Makiivka and a couple more settlements will remain. And politically, it would look beautiful.

❗️But this is, unfortunately, not a very good case when Russian troops repeatedly try to accomplish, first of all, a political task along the same routes. And the objective reality on the battlefield does not change from this. Moreover, there are plenty of examples of “fitting reality” to public statements, not always positive.

And it is worth noting that now the opponent can easily post footage with their own presence in Bilohorivka and declare that the village has been recaptured. And thereby we ourselves will give the opponent a reason to demonstrate “success” against the backdrop of failures in other directions.

rybar

Battle for Chasiv Yar: Advances of the Russian Armed Forces in the Canal neighborhood
Situation as of 5:00 PM on May 20, 2024

Heavy fighting has been ongoing on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar since early April. After a month and a half of intense shelling of enemy positions, Russian forces have managed to carry out several successful sorties into the multi-story residential and private sectors of the neighborhood, significantly expanding their zone of control.

▪️In the central part of the neighborhood, a Russian armored group attacked along Highway O0506, which turns into Zelena Street at the entrance to Chasiv Yar. After losing several armored vehicles, they managed to fight their way to the buildings adjacent to the territory of School No. 77 and deploy infantry. According to some reports, assault groups also managed to consolidate their positions in the first five-story buildings on Horbatova Street.

▪️To the north, Russian troops expanded their control zone in the dacha areas, clearing the area east of the Chasiv Yar Repair Plant, where fighting is currently ongoing.

▪️On the southern flank, the Russian Armed Forces have taken almost full control of the territory of the Stupky-Holubivski-2 nature reserve, as confirmed by footage from objective control: Russian army armored vehicles are relatively calmly driving along the entire forest area, reaching the southernmost outskirts of the Canal neighborhood. The footage published online captured several attempts to enter the residential area.

🔻At the moment, they have not been able to consolidate directly in the multi-story residential area: the fighting is taking place in the area of the garages adjacent to the houses on Obraztsova and Horbatova Streets. However, the very fact of the breakthrough in this area indicates that the Russian Armed Forces have managed to break the enemy’s defense, and the capture of the eastern part of the city is only a matter of time.

rybar

Chasov Yar. The Russian army managed to occupy the line of fortifications in the east of the “Canal” microdistrict, after which Gorbatova Street and part of Zelenaya Street almost completely came under control.

At the same time, our guys cleared several high-rise buildings and one forest belt. The fighting continues. Advancement a kilometer deep into the AFU defense in the morning.

polk105

Ukrainian forces carried out a missile strike on the suburbs of Luhansk. Once again, the enemy used Storm Shadow missiles, one of which was intercepted.

At the moment, there are reports of five injured civilians, and emergency services are working at the scene of a fire in a residential building in the Yubileinyi village.

Kherson Direction: On the Actual Situation in Krynky and the Island Zone

Situation as of May 20, 2024

🔻Alongside news (https://t.me/rybar/60239) from Bilohorivka, there have been reports of the village of Krynky being captured again.

▪️When we talk about Krynky, we need to understand one simple fact: it is just ruins, with basements where Ukrainian formations are holed up. The only value of the bridgehead as such is not the ability to advance, but to serve as bait for Russian forces.

❗️The bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River is covered by enemy drones and artillery, whose crews are on the elevated right bank. And despite systematic mutual strikes, the status quo is essentially maintained.

▪️Control over the islands is also quite tenuous on both sides. According to our sources, the water level in the river is gradually rising due to water discharge from one of the dams upstream. Some reports suggest this is related to strikes on the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, but it could also be the result of the enemy preparing some actions.

▪️As a result, the island zone of the Dnipro can be roughly divided into areas where “they are unlikely to strike us”, “they may or may not strike us”, and “they will strike us 100%”, and this applies in both directions. The partially flooded islands, to put it mildly, are not very suitable for digging in, so in the island zone, both sides operate in small groups on boats, not lingering too much outside the coastal buildings.

rybar

Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 20, 2024

Russian forces struck targets of the AFU in the Mykolaiv Region, as well as a military airfield in Poltava.

Ukrainian formations shelled the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic during the day, according to official data, more than ten people were injured.

In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops liberated almost half of the territory of Volchansk. After taking control of the complex of buildings of the aggregate plant, the advance groups reached the destroyed bridge on Privokzalna Street.

From the Siversk direction, there are reports of a successful assault by Russian units on the positions of Ukrainian formations in Bilohorivka.

In the Bakhmut direction, fierce battles continue on the territory of the Canal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar. On the southern flank, the territory of the Stupky-Holubivski-2 reserve is almost completely under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops are advancing in the area of Netailovo, battles are ongoing in the area of Kolkhozna and Naberezhna streets.

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20000 Russian Troops Storms Chasiv Yar l Klischiivka Are About To Fall

Russian Forces Fully Capture 100% of Robotyne & Netailove

BREAKING: Russian Army Marched Into The KHARKIV Region From A New Direction And Entered ‘ARTEMOVKA’

KHARKIV DIVERSION IS WORKING; so much Russian advances everywhere – Frontline Changes Report

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (20 May 2024)

Part I

▫️Units of the Sever Group of Forces continue advancing to the depth of the enemy’s defences.

Losses were inflicted on manpower and hardware of the AFU 42nd Mechanised Brigade near Glubokoye (Kharkov region).

In addition, two counter-attacks launched by the enemy’s assault detachments were repelled near Volchansk and Staritsa (Kharkov region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 380 servicemen, eight motor vehicles, three 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, and one Bukovel electronic warfare station.

▫️Units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 63rd Mechanised Brigade and 1st National Guard Brigade near Chervonaya Dibrova and Kuzmino (Lugansk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 60 servicemen, one tank, one armoured personnel carrier, three motor vehicles, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

▫️Units of the Yug Group of Forces completely liberated Belogorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic) and took more advantageous lines and positions.

Losses were inflicted on the enemy’s manpower and hardware near Spornoye, Razdolovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 340 servicemen, three tanks, and three motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, two UK-made 105-mm L-119 howitzers, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 howitzer, and one Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station were neutralised. Four AFU ammunition depots were destroyed.

▫️Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 47th Mechanised Brigade, 25th Airborne Brigade, and 142nd Infantry Brigade near Umanskoye, Netaylovo, and Ocheretino (Donetsk People’s Republic).

One counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 143rd Infantry Brigade was repelled near Solovyovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 330 servicemen, one tank, three infantry fighting vehicles, including one German-made Marder and one U.S.-made Bradley, as well as two motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made 155-mm M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer were neutralised.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (20 May 2024)

Part II

▫️Units of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted losses on the enemy’s manpower and hardware near Urozhaynoye and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

One counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade was repelled near Vladimirovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 120 servicemen, two armoured personnel carriers, three motor vehicles, and one 152-mm D-20 howitzer.

▫️Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 65th Mechanised Brigade, 141st Infantry Brigade, 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, and 108th Territorial Defence Brigade near Stepnoye (Kherson region), Stepnogorsk, Rabotino, and Novopokrovka (Zaporozhye region).

One AFU sabotage and reconnaissance group was eliminated on the Pereyaslavsky island.

The AFU losses amounted to up to 30 servicemen, one tank, nine motor vehicles, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one 152-mm D-20 howitzer.

▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces neutralised one German-made IRIS-T air defence system radar station and one S-125 SAM system.

A meeting place of command of the AFU 92nd and 95th assault brigades were hit, as well as the enemy’s manpower and hardware was engaged in 138 areas.

Air defence units shot down 45 unmanned aerial vehicles, one French-made Hammer guided aerial bomb, four U.S.-made HIMARS and Olkha MLRS projectiles, and one Neptune anti-ship missile.