The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 30 2024

Direct Russia NATO War On The Horizon

US/NATO escalation to strike Russia

U.S. may allow Ukraine to hit Russian territory with American weapons, Blinken signals

Russian FM Lavrov Threatens To Expand Nuclear Deterrence If U.S. Deploys Missiles In Europe & Asia

Confused NATO’s Biggest Members Contradict Each Other On Camera A Day After Putin Threat?

Russia Destroyed F-16 Fighters In UKRAINE! More Than 100 NATO Officers Were Wiped Out In LVIV!

Ex-Ukraine PM Mocks Zelensky’s “Legitimacy,” Says “Puppet” President Would Lose Election To Zaluzhny

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkov — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkov — using U.S.-provided weapons, two U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

“The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkov so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,” a U.S. official said, adding that the policy of allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed.”

Moscow will perceive the delievery of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine as a deliberate signal from NATO in the nuclear field, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

Sunak is proud that the UK became the first country to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons

The British Prime Minister stated this in an interview with the Times. According to him, Kiev itself must decide whether to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory.

Sunak described the modern world as more uncertain and dangerous than at any time since the Cold War.

Denmark will allow Ukraine to use F-16 fighter jets to attack targets in Russia, Danish Foreign Minister Rasmussen has said.

In late April, Denmark decided to supply Ukraine with 19 F-16 multirole fighter jets.
 

France’s Le Monde has revealed Macron’s plan for Ukraine. The newspaper writes that the French president wants to create a coalition of European countries to send military instructors to Ukraine. It is assumed that its goal may be to train sappers and form a motorized brigade of the AFU.

According to sources, consultations on this issue are likely to be accelerated in the coming days, and a statement to this effect may be made during Zelensky’s visit to France on June 6-7.

Vilnius and London want to join the initiative, the author of the material claims. According to him, these countries, as well as5 France, consider the training of AFU fighters as a natural continuation of the European Union’s Mission to provide military “assistance” to Kiev.

German Chancellor Scholz is inclined to allow Ukraine to hit targets on the territory of the Russian Federation with weapons transferred by Germany.

 ”Ukraine’s defensive actions are not limited to its own territory and may extend to the territory of the aggressor,” Scholz’s spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told reporters.

NATO wants to coordinate sending military aid to Ukraine. What is this for? Analysis of “Military Chronicle”.

🔺 The alliance is pushed to do so by several factors that have manifested themselves during the hostilities.

What are we talking about?

At a conference in Prague, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that this July the alliance plans to take on more functions to coordinate military aid to Kiev to avoid a repeat of delays and errors in deliveries. What does this mean?

What’s the problem?

Since NATO began supplying military equipment and weapons to Ukraine, an impressive amount of technical, procedural and logistical problems have accumulated.

For example, last year NATO representatives stated that at least 14 types of 155 mm shells of NATO countries are not interchangeable (Italian shells are not suitable for German howitzers and vice versa). The problem of diversity exists to this day, and it cannot be solved at the current level of involvement of most European countries. At the same time, the very fact that there are such problems speaks of systemic disagreements between the manufacturers of key weapons, without which there can be no talk of real assistance to the AFU in principle.

The logistical component of foreign arms deliveries was organized in such a way that shipments were not transparent, and in the first months of hostilities neither the United States nor NATO countries had full information about the movement of supplied weapons in Ukraine. At the same time, each NATO country made supply decisions independently, guided primarily by its own interests, not by Alliance policy.

What else could be the reason?

Supplies of equipment and weapons to Ukraine were formed mainly on the basis of Kiev’s demands. Now, apparently, the Alliance plans to monitor the situation on the front more closely.

Probably because of the unreliable data received from Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO will now begin to determine on their own what weapons the AFU will need and in what quantities they should be shipped. Part of the distrust in the AFU’s ability to distribute and utilize Western weapons is due to several reasons, among them a low level of mastery of the art of battlefield planning. This problem, in turn, has led to reactive decisions – to plug holes on the front.

Improper planning resulted in significant overconsumption of artillery shells (which required building new factories and emptying army depots around the world), as well as heavy losses of M777 howitzers, self-propelled artillery, and armored vehicles, most of which were used contrary to NATO regulations (such as the M1 Abrams tank in Avdeevka).

What conclusion can be drawn?

Given that the leadership of some EU countries is voicing the idea of transferring their instructors to Ukraine, we may be talking about transferring (at least partially) the Ukrainian army to manual control by the commanders from the US/NATO.

This is happening largely after the accumulated claims against the AFU generals (Zaluzhny, Syrsky, Pavlyuk and others), since it was the Ukrainian army command that formed the list of weapons and equipment for combat operations and itself gave orders that led to their irrational use and losses.

In this scenario, there is a high probability that the next AFU commander-in-chief will be directly subordinate to the command of NATO forces in Europe and execute the decisions of foreign experts in the field of war planning.

Military Chronicle

It’s hard to imagine a dialogue about peace given the rule of the “war party” in Kiev – Lavrov

Other statements made by Russian Forein Minister:

▪️ Agreements to resolve the crisis must be based on the principle of equal and indivisible security.

▪️There is an opportunity to “accelerate” the political decision – the West must stop supplying weapons.

▪️Moscow is open to negotiations, but we are talking about peace, not a truce.

▪️Moscow hopes that sooner or later forces will appear in Kiev that care about the interests of the Ukrainian people, but for now there is no other option but to continue the SMO.

▪️By supplying Kiev with F-16 fighters, NATO is trying to make it clear to Russia that the United States and the alliance are “ready for literally anything.”

▪️Moscow and Beijing agree on the need to increase defense cooperation in different formats.

▪️Russia and China are forced to take into account negative trends in the Asia-Pacific region and take measures to stop their consequences.

▪️The White House is not interested in the fate of the civilian population of Russian cities; it has become an accomplice in the crimes of Kiev.

▪️Russia can take steps in the field of nuclear deterrence if the United States deploys intermediate- and shorter-range missiles.
 

The program of the summit on Ukraine is not ready?

Swiss Foreign Ministry: the program of the summit on Ukraine is still under development

“The focus will be on thematic areas of international interest and affecting a large number of states, such as nuclear security, food security, as well as the human issue in war”
 - shared Swiss Foreign Ministry spokesman Pierre-Alain Elchinger.

Switzerland actually confirmed Zelensky’s words that the summit will discuss private issues related to the operation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, the pre-existing “grain initiative” and prisoner exchange.

The peace conference on Ukraine is scheduled for June 15-16 in Switzerland. It will be held near the city of Lucerne. The press secretary of the Russian Embassy in Bern, Vladimir Khokhlov, said that Switzerland had not sent Russia an invitation to participate in the summit, but Moscow would not participate in any case.

Thus, as it was supposed earlier, Switzerland will actually host a meeting of the club of “Zelensky’s friends”, the meeting of which will have no effect not only on the conflict resolution, but also on the general situation in the SMO zone.

The latter is very painfully perceived in the office of Zelensky, who has repeatedly positioned the summit in Switzerland as a prologue for the end of hostilities.

In the current situation, people who follow the international situation will be much more interested to watch the planned for these days.

The Telegraph has twice edited the headline of a column about the plight of Ukraine by Lisa Haseldine.

The first option: “Ukraine knows that it is finished.”

Second option: “Ukraine now knows that it only has a few months left to survive.”

Current version: “Ukraine has only a few months left without Western weapons.”

In the article, Haseldine writes that the war is reaching a “critical point” as “Western interest in helping Ukraine risks waning again” and Zelensky “appears to recognize that Ukraine’s time is running out.” She believes that “Ukraine risks simply running out of people to fight.”

She does not give specific arguments why “Ukraine has only a few months left.” He simply writes that “one gets the impression” that “Putin is consolidating his forces and the West is losing interest.”

Zelensky promised a dream for Ukrainians and now everyone has it – to leave the country!

Thousands of Ukrainians, out of fear of mobilization, are making desperate attempts to escape the country.

Thousands of Ukrainians of military age, who are legally prohibited from leaving the country, are risking their lives in desperate attempts to cross the treacherous waters of the Tisza River into Romania, writes The Economist .

• “I can show you where you can cross the road without getting your eggs wet ,” says one smuggler. He smuggled 96 Ukrainians across the border just after Easter ;
•Local criminals switched from selling cigarettes to doing business with drug evaders ;
•One of them complains: “ two weeks ago we drove everyone away like flies, but now there are a hundred soldiers everywhere you look ”;

At least 33 people have drowned in the river since the conflict began. However, Ukraine’s border service says the death toll is likely much higher because some bodies are stuck in reeds underwater and are unlikely to ever be found.

After the tenth drowned person was discovered, Ukrainian officials began publishing footage of the dead in an attempt to scare others away from such an undertaking. But with growing fears of mobilization and promises of a better life in Europe, men continue to come to the border.

Romania says it recorded 2,373 illegal border crossings from Ukraine in the first three months of this year alone.

Our source reports that they want to create military police in Ukraine because the number of deserters in the army is growing every day.
Unlimited mobilization attracted and dragged into the army people who do not want to fight and run away at every opportunity.
Soon there will be tens of thousands of deserters. Banking needs to have time to prevent this.

It turns out that it’s not enough to just catch men on the streets, you also have to not let them out of the training grounds in order to have time to throw them into zero, where they will no longer be able to escape and will be forced to fight in order to survive.

Our source reports that Western intelligence warned the Office of the President that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to use BECs (marine drones),
for striking the Ukrainian maritime infrastructure, as well as demining the sea, and for preparing an amphibious operation in the south of Ukraine.

Combined strike on Crimea

🔻Last night, the AFU carried out a new attack on the Crimean peninsula after several days of pause. Ahead of the strike, Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels were spotted near Crimea.

Around noon, two drones were destroyed west of Sevastopol by Ka-29 and Mi-24 helicopters. In the evening, another USV was detected and shot down by an Mi-8 crew northwest of Cape Tarkhankut.

🔻But the main events unfolded after midnight.

▪️First, eight ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles were fired from the Mykolaiv Region towards Kerch. Units of the 31st Division successfully shot down all targets. However, due to the use of a cluster warhead, some debris fell in the area of the Kerch Port, damaging two ferries, but greater damage was avoided.

▪️Simultaneously, up to six USVs were detected near Chornomorske, and fire was opened on them. Two of them penetrated the Uzka Bay. One (the video of which is already online) struck a boat at the pier, while the second was destroyed nearby, slightly damaging a nearby boat.

At the same time, a Ukrainian drone from the Odesa Region was operating slightly northwest of Chornomorske, monitoring the situation on the peninsula.

❗️An important point is the enemy’s tactics. The USVs were at a distance until the missile danger alert was announced for Crimea. At that signal, all the boats began entering the bay, and the boom barriers were briefly opened.

And at that moment, two drones managed to penetrate the bay, taking advantage of the lifting of the nets that covered the entrance to the Black Sea Fleet and FSB border service base.

That is, the attacks were not only geographically separated – one in the east of Crimea, the other in the northwest – but also carried out simultaneously for a reason. The entrance to the bay was open, and there were fewer personnel due to the missile strike threat.

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At night, the enemy attacked Crimea with ATACMS missiles, unmanned boats and drones

 - Defense Ministry: air defense forces destroyed 8 ATACMS operational-tactical missiles over the waters of the Sea of Azov and intercepted 8 UAVs over the waters of the Black Sea near the coast of the Crimean peninsula.

 - Two uncrewed boats traveling in the direction of the Crimean peninsula were destroyed in the waters of the Black Sea.

Advisor to the head of Crimea, Kryuchkov: During the repulsion of an enemy attack on the transportation infrastructure of the city of Kerch, two ferries – a road ferry and a railway ferry – suffered damage from the debris of downed missiles, and the glazing of the superstructures was damaged. There were no casualties among sailors and civilians. After the damage is assessed, the ferry crossing will be resumed.

Enemy launches drone strikes in Belgorod Region, there are casualties

▪️ Governor Gladkov: the AFU attacked a gas station twice using kamikaze drones. The incidents took place at the entrance to the village of Zamotye in the Graivoron urban district.

▪️ A civilian was injured as a result of the fall of the first drone. Doctors are providing him with all the necessary medical assistance. The windows at the gas station were broken and the canopy and facade were damaged, a passenger car and a tractor were also hit by shrapnel.

▪️ A gas station was damaged in a second attack. No fire.

▪️ The AFU also attacked the village of Gruzskoye several times with kamikaze drones. A civilian was injured as a result of one of the explosive device detonations. The buildings of the local branch of the Russian Post and the temple of the village were damaged – the facades were cut and windows were broken. Three passenger cars were also damaged, one of which caught fire.
 

U.S. State Department Speaker Matthew Miller  justified Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod, because according to him there are no civilians left in the city, therefore all of the targets are military.
 

Kiev region is being prepared for defense

The video shows “dragon teeth” and labyrinthine trenches. Ukrainians place anti-tank concrete pyramids in three rows, stringing barbed wire between them.

“Well-protected defensive lines are something that worries every Ukrainian; this is something we are actively working on together with the military,”
- said Ruslan Kravchenko, head of the Kiev Regional Military Administration.

It is also reported that the authorities of the Kiev region are checking fortifications in the region after a scandal with possible money laundering during the construction of defense lines in the Kharkov region.

On May 29, the grouping of troops “North” continued the liberation of the border areas of Kharkov region

In the Volchansk direction, fierce fighting continues in the village of Volchansk. Due to the acute shortage of personnel, the AFU command has transferred units of the 101 separate security brigade of the General Staff of Ukraine to the city in order to contain the offensive of the Russian troops. The units of 101 OEBR attempted a counterattack and, having suffered losses (about 20 men), withdrew to their original positions.

Meanwhile, units of the 71st Oebr of the AFU continue to hold multi-storey residential buildings in the center of Volchansk, where they are systematically destroyed by artillery and aviation of the “North” group.    

In some parts of the direction, the advance in depth amounted to 400 meters.

In the Liptsovsky direction, the assault units of the “North” group advanced to a depth of 150 meters, and also repelled a counterattack by the 5th separate battalion of the 13th obron of the NSU. The enemy lost up to 10 personnel killed.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to 250 men. Also uncovered and destroyed:

▪️ T-72 tank;
▪️ two Osa SAMs in the villages of Russkiye Tishki and Ukrainskoye;
▪️ two 120-mm mortars in the towns of Volchansk and Sinelnikovo;
▪️ BBMs in the village of Svitlichnoye;
▪️ four vehicles.

The AFU continues to pull in a huge number of reserve units, but only 82 Odshbr, 36 Obrmp and 71 Oebr have real experience in intensive combat operations. Most likely, the enemy intends to conduct a counterattack in several phases:
1. exhausting our units by sending into combat brigades that have not previously participated in assault operations;
2. introducing prepared assault units of 82 odshbr and 36 obrmp into the battle for a breakthrough.

The AFU compensate for the catastrophic lack of high-explosive artillery ammunition by using FPV drones and cluster munitions produced by the United States, but their resource is not infinite either.

Victory will be ours!

North Wind

Group “North” destroys enemy strongholds in high-rise buildings in Volchansk

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold positions in the area of   high-rise buildings with significant forces.

A direct assault threatens heavy losses and our troops use tanks, aviation and artillery, demolishing the enemy’s fortifications.

In the second video the Lancet attacked a moving Osa air defense system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, exploding nearby and hitting it with shrapnel, and the Ukrainian crew fled.
 

Ukraine has assembled an impressive grouping of up to 14 brigades near Volchansk. And although many of them are present here only in separate battalions, nevertheless, the force is impressive – up to 20,000 soldiers and officers. This, as of today, more than one and a half times exceeds our forces involved in the offensive. This ratio has led many experts to assume that the AFU is preparing to launch a counterstrike here.

Such a counterattack, if successful, could allow the AFU command and the political leadership of Ukraine to claim that the Ukrainian army retains sufficient combat capability not only to defend stubbornly, but also to deal counterstrikes to the enemy and seize the initiative. In addition, if the AFU is able to push back the Russian Armed Forces from the occupied territory of Kharkov region, it will be a visible military success, which will strengthen both the belief of its own population in the strength of the AFU and the confidence of its Western allies that the Ukrainian army is determined to fight to the end. Especially since we are talking about a fairly compact territory of several tens of square kilometers.
But there are several critical problems on the way to this success, without solving them, the AFU can hardly count on success.

The first of them is the dominance of Russian aviation in the air, which with its UMPK bombs is capable of flattening a vast territory in a matter of minutes, and advancing under Russian bombs is an extremely difficult task, involving huge losses, and, given the Russian superiority in artillery, such a counterattack could be suicidal.

 At the same time, behind the back of the Russian group storming Volchansk, there are large reserves, which, according to the enemy, amount to up to 35,000 people. And these reserves themselves, in turn, are preparing for an offensive in the coming weeks.

The next unfavorable factor is that the AFU missed tactical surprise. The concentration of Ukrainian troops here was discovered in time and today Russian intelligence already has detailed data on the grouping being created. Russian troops are preparing for defensive battles, equipping positions and accumulating the necessary resources. Just three days ago, such a counterstrike might have taken the Russians by surprise, but today it is already expected and the troops are preparing for it.
Does this mean that under these circumstances the Ukrainian military leadership, represented by Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, will abandon plans for a “counterattack”? Not a fact! Syrsky, who since last winter and his replacement as commander-in-chief Zaluzhny, is in extreme need of a victory, as today his asset is exclusively defense and the loss of many key nodes of the front. Therefore, Syrsky may take a risk. To ensure success, he can try to concentrate here as much as possible the military aid he is currently receiving from the U.S. and Europeans – equipment, weapons, ammunition, including the latest – ATACMS missiles, Himars, as well as his drone strike companies, to try at the initial stage to launch a massive strike on Russian command posts, communication hubs, warehouses, destroy them, and then, with the help of drones and artillery, to paralyze the transfer of reserves, to organize a road hunt for everything that moves and, thus, to isolate the area of the main strike. In fact, to bet on the “air offensive” and “shake up” the Russian defense, and then the introduction of the most trained and experienced brigades in the battle to throw the Russians back to the border.

Now the main NATO combat planning centers in Europe are involved in working out this plan, calculating various options and selecting the most probable one. At the same time, both the AFU General Staff and NATO headquarters realize that another unsuccessful offensive may provoke a large-scale crisis of the entire front, and there will be nothing to compensate for the wasted reserves.

Whether Syrsky decides to take this military adventure or refuse it will become clear in the next week. Beyond the threshold of this term, the AFU will have no serious prospects for a successful offensive in this direction.

ramzayiegokomanda

Military expert Boris Rozhin about the situation in the Ocheretinо breakthrough zone in the Donetsk section of th SMO by 00.30 on May 30, 2024

1.
Karlovka.
After the liberation of Netailovo, the main battles took place on the outskirts of Karlovka. The enemy lost some of its strongholds.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces also lost control of the Netailovo-Nevelskoye road. Previously, they lost the Netaylovo-Umanskoye road.
The zone of control of the Russian Armed Forces in the Netailovo area has expanded, especially to the south of the village.

2.
Umanskoe.
The Russian Armed Forces are fighting near the outskirts of Yasnobrodovka and have expanded their zone of control to the north and west of the outskirts of Umanskoye.
In the near future, the Russian Armed Forces will strive to clear Yasnobrodovka and reach the water barriers that the enemy hopes to rely on in the future.

3.
Novopokrovskoe.
The Russian Armed Forces began an assault on the village from the north and northeast, simultaneously maintaining pressure on enemy positions west of Semenovka.
The liberation of Novopokrovskoye will allow the front to significantly advance westward from the Berdychi-Orlovka-Tonenkoye line.

4.
Ocheretino.
The Russian Armed Forces do not maintain pressure west of Ocheretino in the direction of Sokol. The enemy launches counterattacks and continues to lose Western equipment.
To the northwest, fighting continues on the southeastern outskirts of Novoaleksandrovka.
There is progress north of Ocheretino in the Kalinovo area, where the enemy has lost another stronghold.
The enemy is still holding back advances in the direction of Rozovka.

In general, the Russian Armed Forces continue to firmly hold the initiative west of Avdeevka and do not allow the enemy to stabilize the front, where the most critical situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is now developing in the area of   Karlovka and Umanskoye.

After the capture of Netailovo, the Russian army advances to the Karlovskoe reservoir with the support of aviation

On the flank of Avdeevka, the Russian Aerospace Forces are leveling enemy positions, breaking the defense lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to facilitate the advance of our ground forces.

“The Russians were able to reach the approaches to the Karlovskoye Reservoir,” enemy resources reported on Monday.

The front line is approaching Karlovka. The Karlovskoe Reservoir is a natural water barrier along which are the defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, where the enemy is trying to stop the breakthrough of our troops.

The Russian Army is advancing in the Pokrovsk and Artemovsk directions

▪️Ukrainian military analysts publish new maps showing the advance of Russian troops.

▪️On the flank of Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces advanced north and south of Netailovo in an area up to 2.12 km wide to a depth of up to 700 meters. Having brought up reserves, they began wide-ranging attacks in a southern direction, planning to bypass Nevelskoye and approach the gully north of Krasnogorovka.

▪️In the Chasov Yars direction, fighting continues east of Kalinovka, for the Canal microdistrict, near Ivanovskoye and in the Kleshcheevka area, where Russian troops have entrenched themselves on the eastern outskirts of Alabastrovy pond in an area up to 1 km wide.

▪️Advance is also noted in the Andreevka area near Artemovsk.

RF plans to launch a new offensive north of Kharkiv [30 May 2024]

‘Russia Sending More Troops To Kharkiv’: Ukraine Army ‘Panics’ Amid Barrage Of 51 Missiles & Drones

Ukrainian Forces Encircled In Vovchansk

VOVCHANSK KILL BOX is working; Netailove abandoned by Ukraine; Heroic Bradley rush! – Ukraine SITREP

Important Development! Russian Gains Put Nevelske Node In Danger

Massive Russian Gains Between Semenivka And Novopokrovske

Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 30, 2024

Russian forces delivered several precision strikes on various targets on the territory of the so-called Ukraine and the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia Regions, as well as the DPR. Once again, the “Starokonstantinov” airfield and infrastructure in the Odesa Region were hit.

The enemy launched a massive combined attack on the Crimean Peninsula, using missiles and unmanned boats. Most of the ammunition was intercepted, but there was damage on the ground and at sea.

In the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces are advancing in the vicinity of Klishchiivka and Bohdanivka, while heavy fighting is going on around Chasiv Yar.

In the Avdiivka direction, progress is being made in the area between Soloviovo and Berdychi, and fighting continues around Ocheretyne.

In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing north and south of Netailovo, expanding the area of control around the village.

There is also progress in the Novomykhailivka – Volodymyrivka area in the Vuhledar direction. There, assault groups of the Russian forces have occupied several forest belts.

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