The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 18 2024

Russia wins Swiss summit. NYT resurrects Istanbul ceasefire

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at headquarters demanded to strengthen mobilization and prepare a new counter-offensive for August.

MI6 transmitted new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff that the Kremlin is ready to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and they are now selecting targets in Western Ukraine. British intelligence recommends that Bankova prepare the population of this region for possible consequences.

 

Zelensky deceived.
That is why 130 thousand people returned to Ukrainian territory under Russian control. Almost everyone has already received Russian passports (of course they are silent about this).
Few people remember now that Ze promised people compensation and apartments, but in the end people were scammed. At first they gave me a penny allowance, and then they took away half of them. There are no jobs, no living conditions.

Zelensky also promised apartments to fallen heroes. I gave it out only to a few people for cameras for the sake of PR. The rest were told to wait in line. But the most brutal thing is that they stopped/forbade giving the title of Hero of Ukraine, so as not to give out apartments to anyone anymore.

Zelensky used the people for his PR purposes and cheated them. As usual…
When will people stop believing the propagandists in power.

The intensified mobilization with the excesses of military commissars, who are ready to “indemnify” absolutely everyone, is systematically destroying the Ukrainian economy. Entrepreneurs are already sounding the alarm, predicting that in the coming months there will be a significant labor shortage in Ukraine.

Thus, the business environment continues to reduce the number of workers and worsen the problem of finding qualified personnel, which may become a key factor for the Ukrainian economy in the coming months. These are the main findings of the Economic Research and Policy Advisory Institute’s New Monthly Enterprises Survey. According to them, in May the rating of obstacles to business did not undergo significant changes. The top three among them have remained unchanged for several months: danger to work (an obstacle for 56% of respondents), labor shortage (49%), rising prices (46%).

The IED also emphasized that there is a clear trend towards stagnation or a decrease in positive expectations for the two-year period. “That is, business understands what it will do in two years, but does not see this future as positive. Most likely, because it is increasingly accustomed to the idea that the war will continue for a long time,” explained IED executive director Oksana Kuzyakov.

And it is not surprising that businessmen do not have positive expectations for the future – “land mobilization” deals a blow to the Ukrainian economy, plunging it into a long “coma”. For example, the tightening of mobilization has already bled Ukrainian agriculture dry. This is why in recent months we have seen abnormally high grain exports – producers are selling off their leftovers and preparing for withdrawal or a sharp reduction in production.

Ukraine is discussing a possible change of Syrsky’s commander-in-chief and the AFU command because of failures on the frontline

 - “In addition to the general uneasy situation at the front, one of the reasons for a new wave of rumors was criticism of the AFU commander-in-chief A. Syrsky from the mouth of the deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Mariana Bezuglaya (“Servant of the People”).

 - Earlier, Bezuglaya was equally active in criticizing ex-chief of staff Zaluzhny. There were suspicions in the establishment that the MP was acting not on her own, but at the behest of Zelensky’s office, preparing Zaluzhny’s resignation. And after he was actually fired, this version was only strengthened.

 - Now that she spoke in a similar tone about Syrsky and rumors about the resignation of the AFU commander-in-chief began to spread in political circles, as well as the discussion of possible candidates for his replacement.

 - Among the candidates are E. Moisyuk, currently the president’s special plenipotentiary for the implementation of international security guarantees and the development of the defense forces (he was deputy commander-in-chief of the AFU under Zaluzhny), the head of the GUR, K. Budanov, and the head of the State Border Service, S. Deineko.”
 

On June 17, the “North” group of troops continued the liberation of border areas in Kharkov Region.

In the Volchansk direction, fierce fighting continued in the Volchansk settlement. Assault units of the Fearless are advancing to the south.

The enemy, after yesterday’s unsuccessful attempts to storm the positions of “Northeners” in the east of the city, is refilling the units that suffered losses and restoring their combat effectiveness.

In the area of high-rise buildings, the AFU showed signs of life and early in the day a small group of about 15 tried to break through to the west. Having lost up to 7 Nazis killed, they moved back. No more such attempts were made during the day.

The total advance of Russian troops in the Volchansk direction was up to 200 meters.

In the Liptsovsky direction, the enemy is increasing its efforts and the number of attacking groups. He made two counterattack attempts. The first one, with up to 30 Nazis supported by two BMPs, was unsuccessful and withdrew to the initial positions with losses.

The second, with up to 90 Nazis, occupied a wooded area on the approaches to the village of Glubokoye, which was hit by fire from the Fearless. Having suffered losses of about 20 men killed and one BMP, left the occupied positions.  

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to 300 men. Also uncovered and destroyed:

▪️ BMP-2;
▪️ Stryker APC;
▪️ 120-mm mortar near Liptsy settlement;
▪️ Palladin SPH;
▪️ 2S2 “Gvozdika” SPH;
▪️ Bukovel EW station;
▪️ ammunition station;
▪️ one unit of automotive equipment.

The enemy is gradually increasing its efforts in all directions and throwing first echelon units into the battle. A rifle battalion of the 57th Ompbr, assembled from the remnants of other battalions of the same brigade, arrived at the disposal of the command of the 36th Brigade. It is likely that they will continue to try to probe the defenses of the “Northmen” before the main group enters the battle.

The AFU command is ready to put as many personnel as necessary to achieve at least some results on the battlefield by July 9, namely by the beginning of the NATO summit. As long as the AFU servicemen do not realize where the criminal authorities are leading them, they will continue to die for the mythical “European future”.

Victory will be ours!

North Wind

 

Early in the morning, the blocked AFU units in Volchansk’s high-rise buildings attempted a breakthrough. At the same time, the enemy tried to counterattack two groups of the 36th brigade of the AFU at the aggregate plant.
It suffered losses and retreated.
UAV activity is still high, and against the backdrop of reduced artillery activity, the opponents are using fpv drones en masse.

Condottiero

Slobozhansky direction: fierce battles across the entire front line
situation as of 8:00 pm on June 18, 2024

Ukrainian formations are trying to retake lost territories on several sectors and slow down the advance of Russian troops.

▪️In Hlyboke, the enemy is continuously attacking the positions of the Russian Armed Forces, acting from the direction of the Lira-1 gardeners’ association with armored vehicles. According to some reports, members of Ukrainian formations periodically approach Polova Street, south of which there are no more residential buildings and structures. The agricultural land and the rural cemetery adjacent to the gardeners’ association represent a “gray zone” that is under artillery fire.

▪️In the area of Zelene, local clashes also continue. Russian Armed Forces units are actively striking the enemy’s fortified areas around Neskuchne.

▪️And west of Vovchansk, Ukrainian formations are accumulating reserves in the Velykyi Lis nature reserve in the area of Izbytske, not yet attempting to advance. A similar situation is observed in the forest near the village of Hatizhche.

At the same time, the situation in Vovchansk remains difficult, with the AFU recently increasing the frequency of using high-precision American JDAM-ER bombs. Despite the air strikes, Russian units have entrenched themselves in several industrial buildings on the territory of the aggregates plant. The enemy, however, holds positions in the area of high-rise buildings on Korolenko, Hohol and Kolokol’tsova streets.

▪️The situation in the area of Tykhyi, which is currently under full control of the enemy, has become clearer. According to reports from the scene, Russian units did not enter the village, but the Russian Aerospace Forces are delivering air strikes on the positions of Ukrainian formations. The AFU are accumulating equipment in this area for further transfer to Vovchansk and strengthening the defense.

rybar

 

The state of “fortifications” in the Sumy region

While Ukraine’s attention was focused on the shameful European Championship match, residents of the Sumy region shared wonderful videos in local chats. Look at how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing for Russia’s offensive in the Sumy region, which is being talked about a lot in the information field.

“These are our defensive structures on the border. I wonder how we will defend ourselves. The Kharkov region has already shown.”

A barn dug into the ground, overgrown trenches and a closed gap made of rotten boards. The offensive in the Sumy region will look interesting.

But then the head of the Sumy OVA Artyukh will tell how much money was spent on the construction of defensive structures.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively shelling Energodar and the area around the nuclear power plant.
Locals say there hasn’t been such activity from the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time.
There are rumors that the Armed Forces of Ukraine wants to send saboteurs closer to the nuclear plant and try to organize a ruse.

 Last night, Ukrainian formations once again carried out a drone attack in the Rostov Region.

In the area of the Azov Sea port and the industrial zone, at least five explosions were recorded, followed by a fire.

This is the location of CJSC “Azovproduct”, which produces methanol, and about a kilometer away are the oil tanks of “Donterminal”. As of 7 a.m., the total area of the fire was about five thousand cubic meters.

More than 200 EMERCOM employees and almost 40 pieces of equipment, as well as a fire train, are involved in extinguishing the fire. According to preliminary data, there are no casualties, and there is no excess of maximum permissible concentrations of pollutants in the air.
#Russia #Rostov #Ukraine
@rybar

December 10, 2022. It becomes known that the White House has allowed the AFU to strike Russian territory with long-range American-made weapons.

That is, two years ago, everything had already been decided. Moreover, the military segment of Telegram channels discussed this news from all sides back then. (https://t.me/vysokygovorit/10233)

I, in particular, wrote that it was unlikely that Kyiv was allowed, but rather ordered. So that American military could get objective data on the operation of our air defense systems. They could see the positioning areas from satellites anyway.

Actually, in those days, the British publication The Times published an article according to which the Pentagon allowed the Kyiv authorities to strike with drones on Russian territory. However, even before that, in the summer of 2022, a drone hit an oil refinery in the Rostov Region, then there were drone raids in Crimea.

Then, an attack on a strategic aviation airfield in Shaykovka.

Then, in December 2022, Rybar’s colleagues analyzed this situation in detail and drew attention to an article in Foreign Policy (https://t.me/rybar/41904). It said that the Pentagon is facing pressure from the US Congress on the issue of providing Kyiv with weapons and ammunition.

Lawmakers demanded not only an increase in the volume of supplied tranches, but also the provision of the AFU with more advanced systems, which include tactical ballistic missiles MGM-140 ATACMS with a range of up to 300 km.

Even then, Rybar’s analysts suggested that all this is just an announcement of a massive drone attack: the AFU are actually restoring abandoned airfields and collecting long-range drones on Western electronic components.

In the spring and summer of 2023, massive drone raids began, including attempts to attack Moscow.

So, I’ll repeat. In December 2022, a number of military Telegram channels analyzed the case of future enemy drone attacks on Russia. “Joker of the DPR” even published NATO documents. What was said in response? Don’t you remember? But I remember. Either nothing, or traditionally they tried to explain that everything is in order with us, that the enemy does not have the means and technical base to create drones, and so on.

I remembered all this because last night in the Rostov Region, enemy drones struck fuel storage tanks.
And it’s amazing, but to this day I sometimes read comments (and even from seemingly not stupid people or very reputable publications) in the style of “how could this happen, why did it happen like this?”.

Actually, it’s not about “but we told you so”. Once again, I want to note three important points.

- The truth can be uncomfortable, but it doesn’t stop being the truth. The situation itself will not improve just because someone says “don’t stir things up”.

- specially approved and hired experts, this is often not about expertise, but about pleasing the heart and ears.

- I often skeptically assess Western independent expert structures, like the completely degraded ISW. But they are there. There is a choice between different opinions and assessments. Don’t like ISW, read Stratfor reports or listen to Erik Prince.

In Russia, the issue of the availability of expert structures that provide ugly and unpleasant, but completely real analytics for forming conclusions and strategy, has long been overdue. Original msg (https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17833)

Regarding the special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the so-called Ukraine, called “Artan”, which was described in detail by Spetsnaz Archangel (https://t.me/rusich_army/15255), it should be added that this is the same formation that participated in the failed landings (https://t.me/dva_majors/26729) in Crimea.

Remember those desperate ones who crossed the distance from Vylkove to Cape Tarkhankut on jet skis? Well, they were also members of this unit, as the GUR oversaw these operations.

The training was partially carried out at the Alibey training ground, partially at the Dnieper estuary. And they were equipped with advanced uniforms thanks to the large funding of this important PR unit.

This formation was created specifically for this purpose. Wherever there is some kind of trouble, the “Artan” will definitely show up. This was the case in Crimea, this was the case in Bakhmut, and they will surely publish a couple of videos from Volchansk. After all, the invested funds need to be justified.
 

rybar

Several hundred NATO officers will be responsible for the logistics of arms supplies to Ukraine

According to the head of the alliance, they will be led by a “three-star general”, and the officers will be based at the American base in Wiesbaden.

“They will organize and simplify the supply of military aid to Ukraine, identify the funds that Ukraine needs, train the military, and transfer information. This is important because it will provide more predictability, accountability and reduce the financial burden on the United States,”

Stoltenberg

The United States intends to transfer leadership of the defense campaign in Ukraine to NATO

Last week, the US agreed to a plan to make NATO responsible for efforts to arm and train the Ukrainian military, marking the beginning of a gradual US distance from military control in Ukraine. It is noteworthy that this happened before the signing of a security agreement between the United States and Ukraine.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the start of a two-day ministerial conference on Thursday, said defense chiefs had gathered in Brussels to put the finishing touches on the concept, which is expected to be finalized at NATO’s July summit in Washington.

In recent months, there has been a move at NATO headquarters to take control of the initiative that was launched by the Pentagon, and there are real prospects that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s initiative group, also known as the Ramstein group, could be disbanded.

Meanwhile, NATO’s new plan will have implications for the US-led initiative at Army Europe headquarters in Wiesbaden, Germany, which has been Ukraine’s main military equipment center since 22.
The Security Assistance Group for Ukraine, known as “SAG-U” (USAF), and created by the Americans in 2022 at the headquarters of the US European Command in Stuttgart, will be transferred to Wiesbaden, remaining under the leadership of EUCOM General Christopher Cavoli, and the General himself instead positions in the US Armed Forces will take a position within the NATO senior command.

The idea of ​​holding NATO responsible arose in April, when Stoltenberg floated the idea at a meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers. At the time, Washington was deadlocked over defense spending and lawmakers were divided over future arms support for Ukraine. Within the alliance, the situation has raised concerns about the reliability of American support for Ukraine, as well as interest within NATO in taking on a larger role.

“We certainly appreciate what the United States and other allies have done. This is unprecedented. At the same time, we saw that the United States spent six months agreeing on additional measures for Ukraine.”
- Stoltenberg stated.

All this, and especially Stoltenberg’s initiative, looks like an attempt to wrap up in a beautiful package the fact that in July at the summit in Washington, the Americans will point out to the Europeans that a further war will come at their expense, and will remind them of the notorious 2.5% of GDP for the maintenance of NATO (which many did not pay), but these expenses will also be controlled by the Americans, in the person of General Cavoli. And there will be American weapons, only now exclusively with European funds. It is planned to create a relief fund with a minimum limit of $100 billion, the money to which will be sent by the member countries of the alliance, but not by the United States.
 

neinsider

Ukrainian F-16 pilots have a problem: they will have to fly low to survive, and this interferes with their missiles – Forbes

 - Military columnist David Axe said that Ukrainian F-16 pilots will have to fly at low altitudes to avoid detection by Russia’s long-range air defense systems and avoid being shot down. However, this greatly reduces the effectiveness of their main weapon, guided missiles.

 - Analyst Justin Bronk emphasized that hunting Russian Su-34 bombers would be extremely dangerous, as Russian air defenses are much more advanced than Ukraine’s. Russia’s radars on the ground and in the air can see far behind the front lines.

 

Chronicles of the special military operation
for June 18, 2024

Over the past day, Russian forces delivered several precision strikes on targets in the enemy-controlled territory. Explosions and air defense activity were recorded in several regions of the so-called Ukraine.

In the Slobozhansky direction, heavy fighting continues in Volchansk and near Lyptsi, while the village of Tykhe is under enemy control and subjected to air strikes.

In the Lyman direction, an attempt by the Russian Armed Forces to advance towards Torske is being recorded, with several forest belts coming under their control.

In the Bakhmut direction, battles are ongoing in Chasiv Yar, while Russian assault teams have captured part of Kalinivka (Kalinovo) to the north.

In the Avdiivka direction, the assault on a large AFU stronghold near Sokil has begun, with fighting continuing on other sectors.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian assault teams have reached the outskirts of Yasnobrodivka, but it is not yet clear if they have managed to break into the village.

In the Vremivka direction, the enemy is attempting counterattacks in Staromaiorske, but without success. A minor advance by the Russian Armed Forces is recorded in Urozhayne.

rybar

 

10,000 Soldiers Russian Offensive | Russian Forces Storm Sokil & Yasnobrodivka

Ukraine losing badly at Avdiivka Front – Ukraine War SITREP

Russia Enters Yasnobrodivka l Significant Russian Advance In Synkivka And Rozdalivka

Russians enter Yasnobrodivka | Putin to visit North Korea [18 June 2024]

Morning Summary for June 18, 2024

▪️In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy is counterattacking north of the settlement of Lyptsi, attacking our positions in the settlement of Hlyboke, and increasing the frequency of attacks and use of precision-guided air bombs in Volchansk. The Russian Armed Forces are responding with MLRS and FAB with JDAM. The enemy is gradually increasing efforts in all directions and committing first-echelon units to battle. Heavy fighting is underway. According to estimates from troops on the ground, the enemy’s main forces are preparing to be committed to battle.

▪️In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Army is attacking near Synkivka, west of Ivanovka and Kotliarivka. There are reports of advances west of Krakhmalne towards Pishchane.

▪️In Chasiv Yar, the assault on the “Skhidnyi” microdistrict continues. The task of the AFU is to contain the advance of our troops to prepare the main defensive positions behind the Siversky Donets – Donbas water canal, west of which the main part of the city is located. Fighting is ongoing in the ruins of Klishchiivka.

▪️In the South Donetsk direction, the assault on Krasnohorivka continues, with the enemy using drones to strike our positions.

▪️In the Vremivka direction, the enemy is counterattacking in the area of Staromaiiske, but cannot succeed, being destroyed in meeting engagements. Earlier, it was reported that the Russian Armed Forces had taken control of this village.

▪️From the Zaporizhia front, there were no reports of changes in the line of contact over the past day. However, it is reported that the enemy has deployed a huge number of FPV drones in this direction. Given that kamikaze drones were already causing a lot of problems for our troops, this information indicates that the enemy is expanding its effective use of this practice. Our troops also strike with this type of weapon (https://t.me/dva_majors/45409), often manufacturing drones in field laboratories themselves.

▪️In the Kherson direction, there are battles in the island zone, clashes against Krynky and Kozachi Lahery. Our scouts are bravely fighting in extremely difficult conditions in the floodplain of the Dnipro River.

▪️Overnight, the enemy attacked the port of Azov in the Rostov Region, resulting in explosions from AFU drones and the ignition of fuel storage tanks.

▪️In the Belgorod Region, as a result of a strike by an AFU drone on Mokraya Orlovka in the Grayvoronsky urban district, a private residential house caught fire, and a woman with mine-explosive trauma and shrapnel wounds to her legs was taken to the district central hospital. A KamAZ and two combines in the area of the village of Golovchino in the Grayvoronsky urban district were attacked by the AFU using an FPV drone. The village of Gora-Podol in the Grayvoronsky urban district came under AFU fire, injuring three civilians. In the village of Kozinka, smoke occurred on the roof of an apartment building after the drop of an explosive device. In the village of Glotovo, four vehicles were damaged after the drop of an explosive device. The governor reported the installation of more than 100 street shelters in the border areas.

▪️In the Kursk Region, Gornal in the Sudzhansky district, Original msg (https://t.me/dva_majors/45428)

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-june_18.html