The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 20 2024

Ukraine To Invite Putin To Next Peace Summit?

Battlefield Earth The Russian Mega Alliance

 Putin on the terms of the peace talks put forward by Kiev:

If negotiations are linked to the withdrawal of our troops, then, to all appearances, this will never happen. Because the Kiev regime does not want to leave power and does not want to hold normal elections in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution. That is, they will drag on forever with the ceasefire and they are interested in keeping our troops on these territories because they are not interested in holding elections.

Putin – on readiness to go to the end:

They [in the West] are saying that they want to achieve a strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield. What does this mean for Russia? For Russia, it means the end of its statehood. It means the end of the thousand-year history of the Russian state. I think this is clear to everyone. And then the question arises: why should we be afraid? Is it not better for us to go to the end? This is elementary formal logic.
 

 “Zelensky’s peace summit failed”: Britain came to the conclusion that Zelensky’s plan against Russia did not work.

“Zelensky’s peace summit in Switzerland was supposed to demonstrate world support for Kiev and point out Russia’s isolation. But everything turned out the other way around. Kiev’s plan against Moscow failed because countries important to its implementation either did not take part in the summit or refused to sign the final communiqué. The conference showed how much Kiev has lost support from the Global South. In practice, Ukraine faces a terrible winter. The world appears to be in a “pre-world” position. Scholz recently predicted that the war would end at the “next” peace summit – and that Russia should be invited. If the Zelensky summit demonstrated anything, it was that international support for forever war is waning and the time for ugly compromises has begun.”

The conference in Switzerland turned out to be a complete failure. The “Global South” did not attend, and those who did did not sign the declaration. In fact, attempts to consolidate the world on anti-Russian principles, which were promoted by the Ukrainian government, were unsuccessful. Likewise, the issue of Zelensky’s international legitimacy was not resolved, although Bankova was counting on this. It is noteworthy that after such a fiasco of the Office of the President, the next such conference may not happen at all.

A total of 78 countries signed the communiqué, focusing on nuclear safety, food security and the return of prisoners. And although the summit was intended to show Russia’s international isolation (and at the same time strengthen diplomatic isolation), it did not unite the whole world, but only recorded a split in the international community on the Ukrainian issue – the leading countries of the Global South either ignored the conference (like China) or did not began to sign the final declaration. At the same time, the summit took place at an unfortunate moment, when Ukraine does not have serious successes on the battlefield. This has caused many countries to be more cautious in supporting Ukraine. Moreover, the peace summit did not become a top topic in the world media, which mainly noted either its failure or ambiguous results.

Zelensky continues to persuade other countries to “conditionally sign” and support the communique of the forum in Switzerland on the Ukrainian crisis.

The problem is that these are situational victories, each country can cancel its “conditional support” at any time and Bankovaya understands this.

 It comes to the point that Bankova, through its international lobbyists, bribes the leaders of poor countries by promising to give them free food, to buy something from them or through them, and also transfers round sums of money to the personal accounts of these leaders – source.

Zelensky and Ermak are saving their skins with state money.

The agreement on security guarantees signed with the United States finally closes Ukraine’s path to NATO and consolidates the country’s status as an instrument of war, essentially a consumable item. This is approximately what the current policy of NATO countries is aimed at.

That is, Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO. But they will leave the illusion in the West, and will continue to keep it in front of Kyiv because of fears that without this incentive, Ukraine will surrender and will not fulfill its task of inflicting maximum damage on Russia. However, skeptics also say that the “doors” to NATO will be closed to Ukraine for completely different reasons. Not only is the West not eager to go to war with a nuclear power, but also the level of corruption in Ukraine has grown so much that no one wants to take the country “on balance”. And indeed, the West understands this very well, as well as the fact that the Ukrainian authorities continue to “cut” billions of dollars in funds allocated to them by their partners to fight the Russian Federation. The last and most noteworthy thing is that the European Union has created a commission to combat corruption and theft of Western aid to Kyiv, in particular, within the framework of a 50 billion euro aid fund to Ukraine until 2027. However, these funds will more than likely be “sawed up.”

It won’t get any better. The US authorities should not have refused the proposal of Russian President Vladimir Putin to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

The Biden administration, if it had real diplomats working for it, could try to use the Russian leader’s proposals as a starting point for negotiations. Moreover, the question of who controls Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye does not concern us at all,
- said The American Conservative.

The publication noted that this is perhaps the best deal that Kiev can get in the near future. But Washington ignored the plan because “delusions of grandeur got in the way.”

“Won’t survive.” Zelensky will not negotiate for fear of losing power.

Given the state of affairs on the ground in Ukraine – economic collapse, millions of refugees and hundreds of thousands of casualties in the war – Kiev should consider making peace with the Russian Federation. But they won’t do this for the simple reason that Zelensky most likely will not survive later,

- says American political expert James Carden.

In addition, the analyst emphasizes that representatives of the far-right forces that started the conflict in 2014 will seek the final removal of Zelensky. According to the political scientist, they will be able to do this, given that the constitutional term of office of the Ukrainian leader has long expired.

Information about the preparation by the enemy of a “strategic offensive operation” in two directions is increasingly being confirmed.

Data received from the statistical centers of the TCC of Ukraine speak about the intensified collection and accumulation of people at the recruitment points. Little  information about overfulfillment of the mobilization plan is leaked to the Ukrainian media.

Chief Commander Syrsky, fulfilling the decisions of Zelensky’s bet, is preparing a “breakthrough grouping” of up to 100 thousand people in the direction of “South” and “North”. Yes, the qualitative composition of this force leaves much to be desired, as well as its supply, but the fact remains.

For these purposes, in the spring a purge was organized in the ranks of the AFU, the commander of the TRO South of the AFU was jailed, in early May the entire leadership of the USC “South” and “North” was replaced, and the previous commander of the South was appointed head of the Odessa Military Academy, on the bases and ranges of which they are now conducting exercises and training of personnel together with foreign instructors.

Plus, the concentration of foreign military personnel continues in Odessa and Kharkov. Over the last month, only in Odessa from 200 to 500 military of the French legion have arrived, and in Kharkov about 300.

Le chance finale of Ukraine is moving to a decisive stage.

Condottiero

Our source in the General Staff said that the new law on mobilization now covers 60% of the plans from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This situation does not suit Syrsky, who promised Zelensky to launch a new counter-offensive at the end of August before the US elections, which is why mobilization methods will be tightened from July.

The biggest problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is aerial bombs.

The Western press again confirmed our insight that F-16s are needed to protect against Russian aircraft.

 F16 will arrive in Ukraine and will be able to protect Kharkov from KABs, – The Guardian

The Russian Armed Forces launch aerial bombs at a distance of 50 to 70 km.

Therefore, the West has now given permission to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use ATACMS missiles so that they will try to destroy the air defense and airfields of the Russian Armed Forces.

Colleagues, aviation bombs are a huge trump card of the Russian Armed Forces due to the fact that they demolish all the major fortified areas of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which changed the course of events. Now, with a few bombs, you can demolish a large fortified area, burying a hundred enemy fighters there at once or destroying the control center, which gives an advantage in the war.

The Russians have only improved FAB – 3000, but imagine if they start beating FAB/KAB – 6000 or 9000, what will happen to LBS then.
That’s why the Ukrainian Armed Forces so need to get F-16s and a lot of air-to-air and air defense missiles in order to somehow level the game for a while.

Claimed to be the first use of FAB-3000 with UMPC on Ukrainian positions in Litspy, Kharkov region.

The bomb was clearly slightly off target, but the consequences were still serious.

Russia’s Three-Ton FAB-3000 Guided Bomb Used On Ukrainian Target In Kharkiv

Russia obliterates Ukrainian towns by retrofitting bombs, expanding airbase network

Here is the first objectively confirmed use (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/127448) of the FAB-3000 M-54 aerial bomb with a planning and correction kit (JDAM). The target was the positions of the AFU in a medical facility in Liptsev, where fighting is taking place on the approaches.

The power of the munition can be roughly estimated from the video: although the bomb did not directly hit the building itself, the blast wave and shrapnel literally destroyed all the surrounding structures, leaving only ruins.

📌 Of course, a direct hit on the target would have caused much more serious damage. However, the accuracy of JDAM-equipped munitions, while still lagging behind Western analogues, has become much higher over the past year. Especially considering that the Russian Armed Forces practically had nothing like this before 2023.

At the same time, the need for gliding FAB-3000s in the current version is sometimes debated due to logical technical features, characteristics and nuances of combat use. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the arsenal of means of destruction of the Russian Aerospace Forces has become even greater.
 

rybar

Since morning, Ukrainian experts have been trying to understand “what it was tonight”.

Chronology:

Four TU-95s launched missiles, Western tracking stations recorded them, but air defense did not record their flight, and the missiles were detected only when they hit targets in Dnepropetrovsk and Vinnitsa.

At the same time, the piglets have already reported on the “destruction” of 4 invisible missiles.

A total of nine missiles were fired by strategists tonight. About 40-50 Geran-2 UAVs were also involved in strikes on the rear of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Condottiero

Visualization of night strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector. The raid on targets in the Kyiv, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions was mainly carried out by kamikaze drones “Geran-2″.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities

Last night, Ukrainian forces carried out another strike on Russian oil infrastructure. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense systems intercepted about 15 drones from the AFU in six regions, but some UAVs managed to reach their targets.

▪️In the Republic of Adygea, a hit occurred on the territory of the Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt oil depot in the village of Enem, causing a fire on the facility. By 6 am, the emergency services extinguished the fire, which covered an area of about four hundred square meters.

▪️In the Tambov Region, drones attacked the Platonovskaya oil depot in the eponymous village. The fire is still being extinguished, with all regional emergency services involved.

▪️In the Krasnodar Region, the city of Slavyansk-on-Kuban was hit, where an AFU drone crashed into a residential building, killing a local resident. The likely target was the Slavyansk ECO refinery, which had been attacked before – one of the largest enterprises in the region.

🔻Today’s raid once again demonstrates that the main targets of the enemy’s rear attacks remain both oil depots and refineries. Such attacks allow the enemy to inflict significant damage – in Azov, the fire has been raging for more than two days.

This raises the question of the need to improve measures to counter Ukrainian drone raids: from rapid detection and warning of UAV threats to strengthening the protection of critical facilities. Otherwise, the number of enemy attacks will only increase, as will the number of facilities hit.

rybar

Russian oil refinery burns after being hit by drones in Krasnodar

Overnight, the enemy conducted drone raids at Adygea, Kuban, Rostov, Orel, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, killing a woman

 - Defense Ministry: 6 UAVs were shot down over the Republic of Adygea, 3 each over the Bryansk region and Krasnodar Krai. One drone each was destroyed over Rostov, Belgorod and Orel regions.

 - Governor of the Krasnodar region V. Kondratyev: a resident of Slavyansk-on-Kuban was killed as a result of an AFU drone attack.

 - Head of Adygea M. Kumpilov: an oil depot caught fire in the Takhtamukaisky district of Adygea after a UAV attack, the fire has already been extinguished.

In a statement by Vladimir Putin during his visit to Vietnam, he said that Russia’s proposals for resolving the conflict in so-called Ukraine will change depending on the situation “on the ground”.

As previously mentioned (https://t.me/rybar/60945), this is a manifestation of a consistent rhetoric, according to which Russia is open to negotiations, but the conditions for the Kyiv regime will become worse with each passing day. It is through this lens that one should currently perceive all the statements of officials about possible negotiations.

At the same time, Putin’s statements about possible changes to the nuclear doctrine clearly appeared in response to the recent decision of NATO countries to allow the AFU to strike with long-range cruise and other missiles at “old” Russian regions.

The need to amend this document has been brewing since 2022, and not only (and not even so much) in the context of the SMO zone. After all, on the westernmost and easternmost borders, there are places where the risk of direct confrontation with the US and its allies is quite real.

At the same time, the scope of the necessary changes is largely determined by the current situation. Who knows, perhaps the downing of just one RQ-4 will significantly reduce the activity of the Western air force over the Black Sea and the desire of the US and the EU to supply so-called Ukraine with other weapons – in such conditions, it may not even be necessary to rewrite the nuclear doctrine.
 

rybar

Donetsk direction: Advance of the Russian Armed Forces near the Karlovo reservoir
Situation as of 3:00 PM on June 20, 2024

In the Donetsk direction, Russian forces have advanced west of Netailovo, and in Krasnohorivka they continue to storm the positions of Ukrainian formations in the northeast.

▪️On the northern flank, fighting is ongoing in the gardening cooperative on the approaches to Karlove. On the opposite bank, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced towards the former elite cottage settlement. Consolidating this area will allow them to take the northern and central parts of Karlove under fire support to assist the assault teams.

▪️If Russian troops have also managed to gain a foothold on the outskirts of Yasnobrodivka, the AFU will have no other option for retreat except to break through under fire to the northwest towards Skuchne with heavy losses.

▪️In the south, fighting continues in the central part of Krasnohorivka. From the east, Russian troops are breaking through the enemy’s defenses along Nakhimov Street and the bank of the Lozova River, forming a “semi-cauldron” for the AFU units defending in the private sector and on the territory of Shevchenko Park.

▪️In Maksymilianivka, the Russian Armed Forces have entered the eastern outskirts, and fighting is also ongoing in the forest plantations southeast of the settlement. At the same time, the enemy still holds the northwestern outskirts merging with Heorhiivka.

rybar

F-16s arriving in summer will defend Kharkov from Russian fighters – The Guardian

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said in an interview with the newspaper that тher country allowed Ukraine to use fighter jets transferred to it to carry out attacks inside Russia.

“Allowing Ukraine to use weapons across the border increases the effectiveness of their military operations,”
- she said.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces were also allowed to use their F-16 fighters to attack targets on Russian territory by Denmark.

Moscow previously warned that the aircraft would become a target for the Russian Armed Forces and would be destroyed at the transfer stage.
 

On June 19, the “North” group of troops continued the liberation of border areas in Kharkov Region.

In the Volchansk direction, fighting continued in the Volchansk settlement. Units of the “North” forces are forcing the AFU out of the forest area at the bend of the Volchya River.

The enemy, mainly at night, is still trying to evacuate the wounded and transfer reserves.  Fearless supreas these attempts by artillery fire. During the day up to 60 Nazis were destroyed.

No counterattacks by the AFU have been reported for the second day. The arrival of the first units consisting of prisoners to act as part of the assault units of the Kiev regime’s forces has been confirmed.

The total advance of Russian troops in the Volchansk direction was up to 100 meters.

On the Liptsovsky direction there is a build-up of the enemy grouping. During the day the Fearless repulsed one counterattack of the AFU with the number of over 15 people. Up to 5 Nazis were killed, one was taken prisoner.

During the past 24 hours the enemy losses amounted to 280 people. Also uncovered and destroyed:

▪️ PzH-2000 SPH;
▪️ SPH M109;
▪️ BREM in the vicinity of the village of Losevka;
▪️ howitzer, D-20 in the vicinity of Borshchevaya settlement;
▪️ howitzer, D-30 near the village of Zemlyanoy Yar;
▪️ three 120-mm mortars near Staritsa, Volchansk and Malye Prokhody;
▪️ UAV control point in the vicinity of the village of Vilcha;
▪️ AN/TPQ-50 RADAR STATION;
▪️ anti-aircraft ZU-23;
▪️ combat supply point near the village of Volchansk.

The past 24 hours were characterized by the active work of our artillery in destroying enemy firing positions. The enemy has concentrated a large number of forces in both directions. While the AFU command is thinking where to strike the main blow, they are losing personnel and precious time.

If the Ukrainian army does not show results by the beginning of July, Western aid can be forgotten for a long time and Kiev understands this very well. They do not realize only one thing, that this Western aid has never saved the lives of Ukrainians, but only fueled the conflict, taking hundreds of thousands of lives.
 
Victory will be ours!

North Wind

Putin – on the situation near Kharkov:

As for the Kharkov area, I have already said, there is no secret here, I told you that six months ago. I said that if the shelling of our border settlements continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone on Ukrainian territory. They continued, these shellings, and we did what we said we would do.
Yes, we know that mainly the Americans, the Europeans are forcing the Ukrainians at any cost again, I want to emphasize that, at any cost, to push our units to the state border line, and they plan to present this as a major success in 2024 in connection with the expected NATO summit and then the elections in the United States. Well, we’ll see what actually happens, but this command “at any cost” – and I assure you it is, I know what I’m talking about – of course, if it is not based on realities, it will again cost the Ukrainian armed forces very dearly.
But we’ll see, actually, what will happen. In any case, as we understand – and I said that we have no goals to approach Kharkov and so on – this is still such a tactical direction – and the enemy will try to present it as a strategic success, if he succeeds. We’ll see what he actually succeeds in.
 

AFU are throwing prisoners to slaughter in the border area of ​​the Kharkov region, trying to hold back North group

At night, the enemy brought units of prisoners into battle. We won’t say anything about their preparation; everything can be seen in the objective control footage. The infantry moves along the road in a column one at a time with a minimum distance straight towards the destroyed bridge, which is under fire from Russian artillery around the clock.

They were first attacked from the AGS, then artillery joined in, putting the enemy to flight. From a group of up to 15 people, only 4 people were able to escape, the rest are still lying on the approaches to the bridge. Why this suicidal action was undertaken is still unclear.

Chronicles of the special military operation
for June 20, 2024

Ukrainian formations have again carried out a drone attack on oil refining facilities in Russian regions. A fire broke out on the territory of the “Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt” oil depot in Adygea and the “Platonovskaya oil depot” in Tambov Region.

Russian troops struck at energy infrastructure facilities on the territory of the so-called Ukraine. One of the hits was on the Slavyansk TPP, located in the temporarily occupied part of the DPR.

In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian Armed Forces units repelled a series of counterattacks by the enemy in the area of Hlyboke, where it is trying to break through from the Lira-1 gardeners’ association on the northern outskirts of Lyptsi. Several attacks were also thwarted in Volchansk.

In the Artemivsk direction, Ukrainian formations are trying to hold positions on the eastern bank of the dried-up “Siversky Donets – Donbas” canal, fiercely resisting on the western outskirts of the Canal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar.

In the Oleksandrivka-Kalinovo direction, Russian troops are advancing both in Druzhba and, according to some reports, towards Rozivka (Oleksandropil) to further increase pressure on Novhorodske (New York).

In the Donetsk direction, Russian units with the support of armored vehicles advanced to the outskirts of the cottage settlement on the northern bank of the Karlovo reservoir. At the same time, fierce fighting continued in Krasnohorivka.

rybar

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Ukrainian Counterattacks in Vovchansk [20 June 2024]

Morning Summary on June 20, 2024

▪️ In the Kharkiv direction, fighting continues in the settlement of Volchansk. The enemy is trying to evacuate the wounded and redeploy reserves under the artillery fire of our troops. The AFU counterattacks have subsided for the second day. However, there are reports of the arrival of AFU assault units consisting of convicts. In the Lyptsi direction, the enemy is building up forces.

▪️ In the Svatove-Kupiansk direction, the enemy expects an offensive by the Russian Army on Borova. In the Toretsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces advanced from the former entry-exit checkpoint “Mayorsk” to the eastern outskirts of the village of Pivnichne, capturing a pumping station and a section of the railway up to 2 km deep. There are also reports of the advance of our troops towards the settlement of New York (Novhorodske).

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the situation has not undergone significant changes. The enemy is conducting artillery shelling and attacking our troops with drones. In the front-line village of Myrne, a Ukrainian drone killed a civilian by attacking a car.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, the situation has not changed, with small infantry groups active on both sides. The enemy is daily receiving dozens of FPV drones for strikes. Yesterday morning, a UAV of the AFU crashed into a residential high-rise building in Nova Kakhovka. On the bridge over the canal between Kakhovka and Vasylivka, a UAV of the AFU attacked a civilian car in which a family from the Zaporizhia region was traveling. The son died, the father was hospitalized with a concussion. Two enemy missiles exploded on the territory of the village of Raisky in the Novokakhovka city district.

▪️ The Belgorod Region was under extremely frequent shelling over the past day. Seven civilians were injured: in Shebekino, Graivoron and Berezovka.

▪️ High intensity strikes were also noted in the Kursk Region: the settlement of Tyotkino was repeatedly attacked, a civilian was killed after a strike on a car. Novyi Put, Yelizavetovka, Otruba in the Glushkovsky district, Uspenovka and the village of Gordeevka in the Korenevskoye district, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Gornal, Oleshnya in the Sudzhansky district were shelled. A missile of the AFU was shot down over the Medvensky district. In the border areas, 37 Ukrainian drones were eliminated or suppressed by small arms and electronic warfare means.

▪️ In the Krasnodar Territory, Slavyansk-on-Kuban was attacked. A private house was completely destroyed. A civilian woman was killed. In the villages of Enem in Adygea and Afipsky in the Krasnodar Territory, drones struck oil refineries, and the fire is ongoing.

▪️ As a result of strikes by the Nazis on Donetsk and Horlivka (DPR), two civilians were killed and seven were injured.

Summary compiled by: Two Majors (https://t.me/dva_majors) Original msg (https://t.me/dva_majors/45581)