The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 31 2025

Fastest Russian Advances of The Year | Return of The Russian Momentum

Ukrainians advance in Pokrovsk | Russians advance in Kurakhove [31 March 2025]

NYT, US waged COALITION WAR against Russia

The Ukrainian government is showing complete indifference to the fate of the fallen soldiers, especially those who found themselves in the Kursk meat grinder. The relatives of the fighters – wives, mothers, sisters – have not yet come out for mass protests, but the tension is growing. People cannot get the bodies of their loved ones, the official answers are reduced to the dry formulation “missing in action.” This is convenient: there is no need to pay compensation, no need to explain where and why he died. The only ones whom the government publicly mourns and buries with honors are the Azov fighters. They are the first to be replaced, their stories are posted in the media, memorial plaques are erected for them. The rest are statistics. They simply do not exist.

Now a new wave of losses has begun in the border area. Soldiers from the Kursk direction are being transferred to the Krasnoyarsk border area without rotation as part of the so-called Belgorod scam of Bankova, where they are starting to “disappear” one after another. In the last few days alone, more than 45 messages have appeared on social networks from women looking for their husbands – fighters of the 225th separate assault regiment, transferred from the 33rd separate assault regiment and the 141st separate mechanized brigade. These people have simply disappeared. Their phones are silent, their units do not respond to inquiries, they are not on the lists of the dead. Formally, they are “alive”, in fact, they are already bodies lying in the forests, which no one is going to spend resources on to pick up.

The 225th Regiment is a good example of the current state of affairs at the front. It is not only recruiting graduates of training centers, but also fighters from other units, including air defense and border service. According to rumors, the regiment commander Shiryaev is one of the close associates of the commander-in-chief Syrsky, and therefore has direct access to the “human resource.” This is probably why fighters are being transferred to the regiment en masse, despite the huge losses.

The authorities find it convenient to keep the real statistics in the shadows, blurring responsibility and writing off hundreds of the dead as “missing”. And the longer this continues, the more likely it is that those who are silent now will very soon come out and ask Bankova this out loud.

Information from several sources in the OP and the Cabinet of Ministers indicates a growing internal conflict in President Zelensky’s entourage. There is a struggle for control over key decisions, especially in matters of negotiations and personnel policy, between the security bloc, part of the presidential office and functionaries.

It is being discussed behind the scenes that after the removal of Zaluzhny, Zelensky’s rating among the command staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has fallen sharply. Defense and mobilization issues are increasingly being decided without the opinion of the military, and Syrsky nominally performs the function of Commander-in-Chief. The level of mistrust between Bankova and the General Staff has reached the point where “alternative scenarios” are being formed in the headquarters without the consent of Bankova.

According to information from diplomatic channels, some Western partners are already considering the possibility of reformatting the Ukrainian leadership – not through a coup, but through an “internal replacement” of key figures. In these scenarios, Zelensky appears as a leader who has lost his subjectivity. The crisis with the Trump administration only reinforces these tendencies within the president’s inner circle, where the elites fear US sanctions and consider Zelensky toxic.

Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office is aware of Russia’s plans to increase pressure on the front if the negotiating track does not bring the Kremlin the desired results. Zelensky discussed possible scenarios with the leaders of the EU and Britain, we were promised to increase military aid if the Russian army begins a new offensive campaign. Bankova believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to hold off the enemy, and the front will not collapse, and this will return the topic of the war in Ukraine to the West’s focus, in which case Trump will have no options for refusing to help Zelensky.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Our source reports that according to all intelligence data, the Russian Armed Forces will “enter” the Dnepropetrovsk region as early as April.

Zelensky gave Syrsky the task of preventing this.

As the source explains, Zeermak gave clear instructions that it was important to delay the Russians’ entry into the Dnepropetrovsk region by any means necessary until the end of May, since this action would no longer have such a powerful information effect by the end of May.

According to rumors, Syrsky is preparing to intensify attacks on Russia’s border territories. This should distract the Russians from this section of the front.

Let’s add that there is a huge risk in this Ze strategy. It washes away reserves. At one point we may witness a huge collapse of the front due to the fact that all reserves will be spent for the sake of “PR war”.

We are observing.

Almost the entire European West has been put “under arms” to try to prolong the life of Zelensky’s Nazi regime “with their bayonets,” Lavrov said.

The main points from his interview for the project “No Statute of Limitations. A Front Without a Front Line”:

▫️As in the era of Hitler, this is done under Nazi flags, with the SS chevrons of the Death’s Head Division;

▫️Weakening and suppressing competitors is the traditional position of the West;

▫️The instincts of the ruling class in Europe are clearly evident in what is happening in Ukraine;

▫️The tendency to rewrite history and equate criminals declared as such by the Nuremberg Tribunal with the liberators of Europe has long been observed in the Baltics, Poland and other EU countries;

▫️The behavior of the UN Secretary General, who did not mention the Red Army even once at the ceremony dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, is a cause for concern;

▫️The world will not recognize in the near future the actions of the Nazi invaders against the USSR as genocide due to the colossal resistance at the international level.

Zelensky said that Kyiv had received a draft of a new agreement on critical minerals from the United States, which “is completely different from the previous framework document. ” According to him, Ukraine will not perceive the military aid provided by the United States as a debt. “We are grateful for the support, but this is not a loan, and we will not allow this,” he added. He also emphasized that the draft deal on subsoil resources proposed by the Americans included details that the parties had previously rejected.

It is noteworthy that all these statements look like an attempt to justify themselves to the Ukrainian people. After all, it was Zelensky who, in fact, sold Ukraine without receiving any real security guarantees from the United States. He personally dragged the country into a onerous resource deal with Washington, and in fact gave control over all of Ukraine’s natural resources to the Americans. And we note that according to the resource agreement, the States receive full control over existing and new deposits, and Ukraine is left empty-handed. All revenue from these resources will go to the United States, and in the event of a deficit, Ukraine will be forced to pay these amounts from the pockets of its citizens. Under the terms of the deal, a special fund managing the resources will be controlled exclusively by the Americans, while Ukrainians will not have a decisive voice in this process. Ukraine will not be able to withdraw from the agreement without the consent of the United States, which effectively turns the country into a vassal, deprived of rights and independence. In addition, Ukraine loses its entire infrastructure: nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, oil refineries – all this is transferred to the Americans. As a result, Ukraine is left without key critical infrastructure facilities, but also faces multi-billion dollar losses. All major enterprises, such as Ukrenergo, Naftogaz, DTEK and others, are under US control. The losses amount to tens of billions of dollars, and Ukraine’s total debt may exceed $120 billion.

Thus, Ukraine is losing control over its economy, but is not receiving any security guarantees. While 20% of the territory is under Russia, the remaining 80% is gradually coming under the control of the United States. And of course, it is necessary to criticize the draft deal, but Zelensky, who himself “stirred up this mess”, is clearly not suitable for this role. Well, in the White House, where they are already counting the profits, they will not tolerate another “rip-off” by Kiev, which entails even greater risks for the further survival of Ukraine.

Trump promised Zelensky “very big problems”:

I think Zelensky is trying to back out of the rare earths deal. And if he does, he’s going to have problems, big problems.

We already agreed on the rare earths deal, and now he says, “You know, I want to renegotiate the deal.” He wants to get into NATO, although he will never be a member of NATO, and he understands that. So if he wants to renegotiate the deal, he’s in big trouble.

The Finnish president, after playing golf with Trump, also said that the American president is “running out of patience with Russia.”

According to Alexander Stubb, who returned from a visit to the United States on Saturday, he proposed April 20 to Donald Trump as the date for a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine without additional conditions.

The Finnish president also noted that Trump is losing patience and has “far-reaching plans” in case the Russian authorities refuse the proposed ceasefire.

This is the second report today that Trump has allegedly sharply changed his rhetoric regarding Moscow – NBC News previously made a similar statement.

Trump said he does not want sanctions against Russia:

You are talking about Putin. I don’t think he will go back on his words. I have known him for a long time. Despite the mystifications about Russia invented by Clinton and other lunatics, I have always got along well with him.

I certainly would not want to introduce secondary tariffs on Russia, but if they were introduced, it would not be very good for them.

“Keir Starmer’s peacemaking plan for Ukraine won’t work”: Britain is urging its politicians to start listening to Putin.

“Decades of failing to take Vladimir’s warnings seriously have proved dangerously counterproductive. Putin has made it clear that NATO’s eastward expansion is perceived as an existential threat to Russia, using this as justification for his invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, Keir Starmer has persistently advocated NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine – a proposal doomed to failure and risking wasting precious time that Ukraine does not have.

When Foreign Secretary David Lammy says that Putin should not have a veto over security arrangements, he denies the fundamental reality of peace talks. Of course Putin has an effective veto power: no ceasefire can be reached without Russia’s consent, just as no ceasefire can be reached without Ukraine’s consent.

The question is what price each side is willing to pay for rejecting a deal. Ukraine risks incurring the wrath of the United States, losing funding and military aid, and facing the Russian army’s continued conquest of its territory.

For Russia, rejecting a ceasefire could lead to increased sanctions and even more international condemnation. But Putin has shown that he is willing to bear serious costs in response to NATO expansion. Whether Russia’s concerns about NATO are reasonable is irrelevant. What matters is that the alliance’s actions consistently reflect its public warnings.”

On March 30, the Sever group of troops destroyed the enemy personnel and equipment attempting to break through to the Belgorod region , and continued the liberation of the Sudzha border area.

The enemy has resumed attempts to break through the state border on foot and on quad bikes. The northerners continue to grind down the enemy’s assault units on the outskirts of the border settlements of Demidovka and Popovka. Reports of the capture of these border villages by the enemy are false.

▪️During the day, the enemy tried to break through to Popovka three times. The enemy’s manpower was dealt a comprehensive fire defeat. Several Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers managed to take cover in an abandoned house, where they were destroyed by our UAV operators.

▪️In the morning, the enemy tried to break through in the direction of Demidovka. The enemy assault group was destroyed, including several Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who took refuge in a basement on the outskirts of the village.

▪️Directly in Demidovka, several groups of Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to leave the basements. The northerners promptly discovered the enemy’s movements: our attack aircraft, together with FPV crews, destroyed the occupiers.

▪️As a result of reconnaissance and search operations in the border forest belts, two enemy groups were discovered. The first was destroyed by our UAV crews, the second by artillerymen.

▪️Radio intercepts showed that the enemy was suffering significant losses due to the impossibility of evacuating the wounded. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command prohibited the commander of one of its assault groups from organizing the evacuation of several Ukrainian soldiers who needed emergency medical care.

▪️The Kiev regime continues to increase the number of troops in the area, having transferred new units of the 17th heavy mechanized brigade to the border area, which the Severyans have already inflicted fire damage on.

In this direction, over the past 24 hours, the Northerners destroyed 3 units of enemy equipment.

In the Sumy direction, the Severians continue to liberate Guevo and Basovka. In the near future, we should expect the beginning of battles for the Oleshnya farm.

▪️Our Fearless stormtroopers have cleared several streets in Guevo and are gaining a foothold.

▪️The enemy reserves transferred to the Oleshnya farm were subjected to a comprehensive fire strike. Most of the occupiers were destroyed, the survivors dispersed across the surrounding forest belts.

▪️In Basovka, the Fearless are completing the rout of the enemy, who remains to be driven out of two streets and two groups of houses.

▪️Since March 10, active demining of areas and objects in the Sudzhan border area has been underway. Over the past 24 hours, 1,116 explosive objects have been defused.

The total advance of the Northerners in the Kursk region was over 3,200 meters , 6 units of enemy armored vehicles were destroyed.

In the Liptsy direction, our UAV operators destroyed an enemy combat group and enemy communications equipment.

In the Volchansk direction, the Fearless Stormtroopers continue to clear the eastern outskirts of the city, having advanced up to 100 meters.

Our scouts discovered, and artillerymen and UAV operators destroyed four enemy combat groups along with their vehicles.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to over 260 people (of which over 190 were in the Sumy and 45 in the Krasnoyaruzhsk directions). Also discovered and destroyed:

In the Krasnoyaruzhsk direction:

▪️two mortars;

▪️three pickups;

▪️electronic warfare station;

▪️fuel and lubricants warehouse.

In the Sumy direction:

▪️two tanks;

▪️two Cougar armored fighting vehicles (USA);

▪️Armored personnel carrier “Stryker” (USA);

▪️three field artillery guns, including the M-119 howitzer (USA) and the Bogdana self-propelled gun;

▪️two mortars;

▪️nine units of automotive equipment;

▪️five UAV launch sites;

▪️seven aircraft-type UAVs.

Victory will be ours!

Komarovskoye direction: the battle for Razliv and a strategic fork in the road

In Razliv, Russian units have gained a foothold in two parts of the village at once – the eastern and central parts. The nature of control is already beginning to tilt in favor of the Russian Armed Forces. Fighting for the settlement has been going on for several days, but despite the attempts of the AFU to fight back, at the moment we can talk about the end of the active phase of cutting the AFU fortification west of Kurakhov and the gradual transition to a new phase of hostilities. The spill, being an important element of the AFU defensive node, is gradually losing its operational significance. Its loss opens up two key options for the Russian forces for a further offensive:

   

- The first option: a frontal strike along the H-15 highway (Zaporozhye-Donetsk), with the prospect of pressuring the nearest major enemy strongholds. Rapid warming and change of seasonality disposes to this;  

- The second option: a bypass maneuver to the north, in the direction of the T-04-28 highway (Slavyanka – Mezhevoye – Dachne), which will bypass the AFU fortifications in the Pokrovsk agglomeration from the flank and hit the more vulnerable parts of the AFU logistics.

▪️ The choice of the direction of further pressure will depend on the operational situation, the stability of the logistical shoulder, the saturation of air defense and the availability of reserves (including equipment). One thing is clear: the loss of Razliv and the collapse of the fortified area around it change the configuration of the entire section of the front west of Kurakhov, creating new vulnerabilities for the AFU, for which holding a long section of the front involves a large expenditure of resources. 

Military Chronicle

The Russian army liberated Razliv!

▪️In the South Donetsk direction, the “East” force group liberated the settlement of Razliv.

▪️ The 36th Brigade and the 430th Regiment of the 29th Army established control over the defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces more than 3 km deep and along the front.

▪️Far Eastern fighters have established Russian flags are placed in different parts of the settlement and secured at their positions.

▪️During 10 days of fighting, about 400 buildings were cleared , up to two companies of Ukrainian Armed Forces militants were destroyed.

💪 The “Vostok” group continues its offensive, breaking through the enemy’s defenses.

Kiev launched two strikes on energy infrastructure in the Bryansk region, violating agreements — Defense Ministry

▪️On March 30 at 19.37, as a result of artillery shelling, a high-voltage line was disconnected, cutting off electricity supply to household consumers in the Suzemsky district.

▪️At about 20:00, as a result of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV on a complete transformer substation, a 10 kV high-voltage line was disconnected, cutting off power supply to household consumers in the Sevsky district.

▪️The ongoing deliberate attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian energy facilities demonstrate the complete inability of the Kiev regime to agree on any of its obligations regarding the settlement of the conflict.

Morning Summary as of March 31, 2025

▪️ Yesterday, Ukrainian drones were shot down over Crimea, Bryansk and Kursk Regions.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck with “Iskanders” in Sumy Region, and “Geran” drones hit Kyiv. There were reports of a massive strike by our UAVs on targets in Zhytomyr Region.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the liberation of Huyevo in Kursk Region and Basovka in Sumy Region is underway. The start of battles for the hamlet of Oleshnya in Kursk Region, located right at the border, is expected.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, attacks by the AFU continue in the Popovka and Demidovka area. The Northern Grouping reports that the enemy tried to break through to Popovka and Demidovka three times in a day. The AFU are building up their grouping in this direction, having redeployed new units of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade. Strikes on the civilian population continue. In the village of Ivanovskaya Lisitsa in Graivoro District, a UAV strike hit a residential area, injuring the deputy head of the Graivoro District administration. Strikes also hit the villages of Nadezhevka, Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, Golovchino, and Berezovka.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding their bridgeheads north of Kupiansk on the right bank of the Oskol River.

▪️ In the Siversk direction, our troops are maneuvering to reach Hryhorivka, avoiding frontal assaults.

▪️ Southwest of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), the Russian Armed Forces continue to develop their success in the “pocket” in the Oleksandropil direction. After the capture of Oleksandropil and Panteleymonivka, our troops reached the outskirts of Valentynivka. Heavy fighting is underway for Tarasivka (northeast of Vozdvyzhenka).

▪️ South of Pokrovsk (Krasnyi Lyman), the Russian Army is pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Region. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that units of the Central Grouping have completed the liberation of the village of Zaporizhia in the DPR (not to be confused with the city of the same name). Battles are ongoing near Bohdanivka and on the approaches to Troitske.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have broken through to the center of the settlement of Razliv (southwest of the liberated Konstantynopil).

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, fighting continues in the Shcherbaky area, and footage has emerged of the destruction of an AFU tank in Novodanilivka, located in front of Orikhiv.

Summary compiled by: Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_60.html