The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 07 2025

RUAF Storm The Final Line of Defense In Southwestern Donetsk Region

Russian counterattack at Pokrovsk | Progress in Velyka Novosilka and Guevo [7 April 2025]

Andrei Martyanov: Russia Poised for Major New Offensive

50 New Russian Divisions Enter Zaporozhye – Hundreds of Ukrainians Raise White Flag!

600 UAF soldiers have gone missing in the Belgorod region over the past few days! Zelensky panicking

The US may force Ukraine to accept peace on Russia’s terms, or Kiev will lose support, — The Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/06/ukraines-fighting-spirit-only-survive-so-long-trump/)

As the author of the publication notes, US President Donald Trump still hopes to be remembered as the man who stopped the war in Ukraine.

Since the Trump administration publicly pilloried Volodymyr Zelensky, broadcast live from the Oval Office, it has stepped up the pressure on Kiev. 

Last month, it emerged that the White House is seeking control not only over Ukraine’s rare earth metal deposits but over virtually all of its natural resources, including its oil, gas and nuclear industries.

While Putin makes no secret of his mission to turn Ukraine into a Russian vassal state, Trump appears to view the country as a wholly owned subsidiary of himself.

“It’s an unpleasant choice between two different kinds of humble pie – but if the Kremlin and the White House are determined to carve up Ukraine between themselves, who can stop them?” the author of the article asks.

Ukraine remains undefeated, The Telegraph stresses, but will Ukraine be able to survive a potential end to American support?

All the speculation about peace talks revolves around the question of how to keep Ukraine both sovereign and solvent. The paradox is that Europe’s poorest country now has the largest, most experienced, and best-equipped military on the continent. It is overwhelmingly in Europe’s interest to prevent the collapse of either the Ukrainian army or its economy.

By contrast, the US appears to have decided that its national interest no longer requires it to heed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia, the US and the UK promised to “respect [Ukraine’s] independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.” In theory, at least, Starmer, a human rights lawyer, believes that the UK is bound by international agreements that affect the fate of nations.

Thus, for the foreseeable future, the Europeans – including, for these purposes, the British – will have no choice but to continue to build up Ukraine’s defences, even at the cost of postponing their ambitions to restore their own armed forces to levels close to those of the Cold War era.

Before handing Trump “his” Nobel Peace Prize, they should remember the case of Henry Kissinger. The then-US Secretary of State won the 1973 Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating a cease-fire in Vietnam. But it soon broke down. Without US military support, Kissinger knew, the South could not survive. Saigon fell in 1975, and the last Americans were airlifted.

Zelensky still believes that a ceasefire can be negotiated without hurting Ukraine. If so, NATO member states, especially the United States, are obliged to observe it. But the real test of any ceasefire will be whether Ukraine is still standing, defiant and unwavering, a year later.

Zelensky found himself in an awkward position: on the one hand, there was growing pressure from Washington to sign the resource deal, and on the other, the leak of its contents caused a scandal within the country.

After the document was published on March 26 by MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, and then by the British Financial Times, panic began in Kiev. Zelensky publicly stated that he considered the leak itself “strange” and ordered an internal investigation with a polygraph test of officials. According to sources, employees of several key ministries were tested, but the President’s Office refused to disclose specifics. “The SBU is already knocking on everyone’s doors, Malyuk personally tests suspects on a polygraph, in a plastic bag. Vladimir Alexandrovich, do not forget, in such situations, the main thing is not to get caught yourself,” MP Alexander Dubinsky aptly commented on the FT information.

Let us recall that the document, which Zelensky now calls “subject for revision”, contains conditions comparable to those usually imposed on defeated countries. The United States proposes to create a joint supervisory body that will manage revenues from all major mineral, gas and oil projects on the territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainian side will not have a decisive vote in this body. All key assets – from Naftogaz to deposits in the Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions – fall under the control of new structures. Future revenues go abroad. At the same time, the document does not provide any security guarantees.

But the very fact that Zelensky did not reject the document outright says a lot – to the point that Zelensky wants to sell Ukrainian resources in exchange for personal security guarantees. The deal with the US was supposed to become his “exchange fund”: rare earth metals, energy, infrastructure – in exchange for immunity. And Bankova clearly expected to sign the document without publicity and resonance.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak is convincing Zelensky of the need to step up criticism of Trump and his policies, to enter into an open confrontation with him on the side of the globalists. According to the Head of the OP, this will allow the President to avoid the election track and speed up the Democrats’ rise to power in the US, which in turn will allow the restoration of funding for the war with Russia.

Trump will make a historic mistake if he recognizes Crimea, Donbas, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions as Russian in negotiations with Russia, says the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Polish Sejm Pawel Kowal

“After the collapse of the USSR, Russia recognized Ukraine with its borders, including Crimea and Donbass (with certain conditions – Militarist’s note), and this is the basis of international law. International legal guarantees of borders in Central Europe also serve as one of the main guarantees for maintaining peace in the region, according to our historical experience,” he said.

People don’t need to know the whole truth – otherwise, they will have their own opinion: GUR chief Budanov on Ukrainian citizens.

“Society should be ready to learn the truth – probably in time. During a war, I think it is unnecessary to know the whole truth. Otherwise, people may have different opinions. I am not talking about distorting reality or anything like that – no. It is just that not all people’s consciousness is ready to accept the harsh truth. It is not worth, as they say, testing people with this.”

Desertion in the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains a serious problem for Ukraine.

In March, 16,349 cases were opened under Articles 407 and 408 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, i.e. for desertion. According to Ukrainian sources, this is less than in January and February.

The decline is explained by the relative calm at the fronts when desertion was difficult. Many disappeared “without a trace”, going to relatives or farmsteads.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to grow, and the recruitment remains low, less than 30 thousand people per month, which is significantly lower than the irrecoverable losses. The program for attracting prisoners does not bring significant results, only 8,000 mobilized in 8 months.

Bankova continues to demonstrate complete indifference to the fates of those it sends to the front. Relatives of fallen Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, especially those who took part in battles in the Kursk region, increasingly say that they are not told the truth about the fate of their loved ones, are not given their bodies, and most are officially listed as “missing in action.” This has become almost standard practice – in this way, the state avoids paying compensation and minimizes real losses in official statistics.

This situation is especially acute now, when, according to OSINT analysts, more than 7,000 Ukrainian servicemen have gone missing in the Kursk direction. Many of them burned along with their equipment, and some were found only as charred fragments and remains. The bodies of more than 400 Ukrainian soldiers were found in and around the village of Olhivka alone. The Russian military is currently transporting the bodies to morgues, from where they will later be handed over to the Ukrainian side. But for now, the families are only receiving dry wording: “location not established.”

Against this backdrop, the selectivity is especially striking. The only ones the government has not truly forgotten are the fighters of the Azov Regiment. They are the first to be replaced, buried with official honors, and shown on TV. The rest are “invisible” soldiers. No mass ceremonies, no respect, no right to say goodbye. The government pretends that these people simply did not exist. All of this is already causing unspoken indignation among the families of those who died at the front. They are not yet taking to the streets, but despair and anger are building up inside, which threaten to develop into a large-scale protest against the OP, and it will be very difficult for Bankova to attribute this to the “hand of the Kremlin.”

According to our data, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a bad situation in many areas.

For example, even the Deep State public has begun to admit that the situation in the Novoye-Ekaterinovka-Nevskoye area is sad for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russians have a significant advantage there. They have advanced in the Nevskoye and Novoye area, and Ekaterinovka is under constant pressure.

We wrote about this section of the front on April 3, pointing out that the Russian Armed Forces are almost everywhere focused on logistics, which means they will cut off the “roads”. They will go to the Oskol River.

Let us add that in this section of the front, in this very “patch”, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the most powerful fortifications. Further on, there are almost none in such quantity.

The question is, is this the beginning of the very crisis of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a shortage of manpower, or is it connected with the fact that Bankova is accumulating forces for another PR offensive. Time will tell. If it is the first option, then everything is very sad, and if the second, then Bankova is in the hands of incorrigible idiots who cannot abandon their strategy of PR offensives, at the cost of territory, equipment and the lives of soldiers.

Zaporozhye direction – is the enemy worried? 

❗️ For several days in a row we have been recording special activity of the enemy in different directions. Then new tactical signs in Chasov Yar, then reinforcements of Ukrainian formations are noted in Slavyansk and its vicinity.

Then there are movements of Ukrainian BAKs in the Black Sea under the cover of exercises. And to attack – they do not attack, which may indicate ongoing tests of either new BAKs or tactics of their use.

💭 And in Zaporozhye region, on the wave of our army’s successes, sources report the transfer of large units from the Ukrainian GUR in the number of up to 1,500 people, which occupy positions in different areas.

💭 Among the arriving units are called special units “Artan” and “Pirates” (this is essentially the same as “Shaman”). “Artan” is the same formation that played a major role in the landings in Crimea. Remember those inglorious fumbles in the west of Crimea?

💭 Also two more special units are on that direction. They are the terrorist organizations “Freedom of Russia” and “Kraken”. The latter, by the way, have been in the Kamensky section practically since the beginning of this year and even tried to be active from the side of Kamensky.

❗️ The situation is very interesting. In fact, now we are seeing how the enemy is not advancing at any of the sites. He has only failures and setbacks everywhere, and they really need success. And the appearance of “elite” in Zaporizhzhya region may not be accidental.

Especially in the south, the enemy can combine its attack with actions in the Black Sea region. Unmanned detachments of BAKs are being prepared for something. And in Odessa region there is also another detachment of GUR “Ghosts”, so we are getting ready.

Archangel of Spetsnaz

Our scouts destroyed the elite special forces of the GUR, thrown into a counteroffensive near Kupyansk 

▪️Russian reconnaissance troops of the “West” group of forces repelled another counterattack by the GUR special forces with military equipment in the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkov region.

▪️First, the armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were burned, and then the GUR assault groups were completely destroyed.

▪️The enemy continues to try to break through at Kupyansk for 3 days, and is met and crushed by the Russian army.

- RVvoenkor

With the start of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Sumy region, a separate question arose: what will now happen with the tactics of using HIMARS.

The experience of the Kursk operation showed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces regularly moved installations to areas where, in several cases, they were detected and destroyed by Russian weapons.

According to our estimates, up to 13 HIMARS were destroyed and disabled during the fire support of the Kursk group. It’s exactly in this format – a short volley, a quick rollback, but not fast enough to avoid being spotted.

It is not exactly known how much of these losses Kyiv compensated for with supplies. But even if something did come from the US, the restoration of the combat fleet is taking place in conditions of extended logistics and time pressure, and not “according to plan”. This automatically means that each unit at the front becomes not a consumable, but a critical asset, the loss of which will not be covered by a new batch “from the allies”.

HIMARS are still firmly tied to roads – the issue of cross-country ability is still critical, especially in border areas and spring off-road conditions. Warming will partly solve the problem, but this will not provide maneuverability, but a window for intensive work. If it is possible, of course.

However, one way or another, everything comes down to tactics and several risks that arise.

The unsafe and relatively simple routes in the Sumy region have already failed the Ukrainian Armed Forces once, and Syrsky will almost certainly not want to fly into the same funnel a second time, and he will probably have to choose between reducing the density of use and increasing the risks.

It is safe to say that if not all, then most of the risks at the planning stage of the Sumy operation are taken into account by the Russian General Staff. The experience gained from the destruction of HIMARS is already sufficient to develop, if not a universal, then a quickly adaptable mechanism of destruction.

It is also worth remembering that the risks of using HIMARS for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the United States have increased many times over after the confessions of General Cavoli, who directly stated that the Americans coordinate the use of HIMARS right down to the selection of the target and the moment of launch. Ukrainian crews in this scheme are simply operators who deliver the installation to a specified point and press the button on command. This means that any departure is a pre-determined operation tied to an external command and target designation network. This means that the failure of even one such scheme is not just a minus of the launcher and crew, it is a blow to the entire architecture of fire planning and, at the same time, to the reputation of the Americans.

 Fighting in Belgorod Region: Russian Troops Clear Forest Belts Behind Demidovka

 - After our troops drove the enemy out of Demidovka, the occupiers tried to gain a foothold in the forest belts around the settlement.

 - Our soldiers are methodically destroying the enemy, continuing to liberate Russian land.

On April 6, the Sever group of troops destroyed the enemy’s manpower and equipment, which was trying to break through to the Belgorod region , and continued the liberation of the Sudzha border area.

The enemy continued to build up its group on the border with Krasnoyaruzhsk district. The northerners are destroying scattered enemy groups on our territory and in the border forests, as well as manpower and equipment in Sumy region.

▪️The enemy transferred units of the 39th coastal defense brigade to the direction, which took part in an attempt to break through the state border in the Popovka direction. The occupiers were destroyed as a result of complex fire damage.

The 39th Coastal Defense Brigade was created on March 5, 2025 from among the nationalists of the 126th separate brigade of the Territorial Defense Brigade. The military formation is part of the Marine Corps of Ukraine.

▪️Also, units of the 225th and 33rd separate regiments, the 47th separate mechanized brigade, the 414th strike UAV brigade (“Madyar’s birds”), the 22nd, 61st separate mechanized brigade and the 17th separate motorized brigade, the 122nd separate territorial defense brigade, neo-Nazis “Aidar”, GUR and SSO units were uncovered in the area. All of them were reinforced by seconded Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers from various units, including signalmen and air defense personnel.

▪️In Miropolye (Sumy region), our UAV operators uncovered and destroyed two assault groups of occupiers.

▪️Our assailt troops are completing the clearing of the outskirts of Demidovka and border forests, where scattered enemy groups are hiding.

▪️Systematic fire strikes continue against all possible shelters of the occupiers in the vicinity of Popovka.

▪️A section of the state border has turned into a cemetery of destroyed Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers and enemy equipment .

In this direction, over the past 24 hours, the Northerners destroyed 4 units of enemy equipment. One Ukrainian soldier was taken prisoner by the Fearless. The interrogation video will be published in the coming days.

In the Sumy direction, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to maintain control over at least a small section of the Sudzha border area, transferring new units to the state border area.

▪️ Footage has been published online showing the successful actions of the Northerners in Guevo. The fearless continue to clear the settlement, eliminating the occupiers who refused to lay down their arms.

▪️Our airborne units cleared the outskirts of Basovka, destroying scattered enemy groups in this section of the front.

▪️From Yunakovka in the direction of the Oleshnya farm, the enemy attempted to transfer an assault group on an armored vehicle. Our UAV operators destroyed the enemy’s manpower and equipment.

▪️Fearless units of the Marine Corps continue to clear forest areas in the area of the state border. In the forests, there are still scattered groups of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who are completely unaware of the situation, believing that most of the Sudzha district is under the control of the occupiers.

The total advance of the Northerners in the Kursk region was over 6,900 meters , and 2 units of enemy armored vehicles were destroyed.

In the Liptsy direction , our scouts discovered, and artillerymen and UAV operators destroyed an enemy assault group.

In the Volchansk direction , as a result of a comprehensive fire strike, eight enemy assault groups were destroyed along with armored vehicles and pickups.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to over 280 people (of which over 170 were in the Sumy and 70 in the Krasnoyarsk directions). Also discovered and destroyed:

In the Krasnoyaruzhsk direction:

▪️BREM “Bergerpanzer” (FRG);

▪️mortar;

▪️two pickups;

▪️ATV.

In the Sumy direction:

▪️two armored fighting vehicles, including “MAXPRO” (USA);

▪️three mortars;

▪️twelve units of automotive equipment;

▪️eight UAV launch sites;

▪️seven fixed-wing UAVs and nine copters of various types.

Victory will be ours!

North Wind 

As expected, the 47th separate mechanized brigade “Magura” has been transferred to the area of Demidovka in the Belgorod region. 

The same brigade that in 2023 became famous for running through minefields during the counteroffensive and for failures near Avdeevka. The same brigade is one of the key culprits of the collapse of the front in Ocheretino and near Berdychy.  “Magura” has also been in the Kursk region, and now it has been dragged out into the light again – already as part of the forces involved in border raids.

The very rotation of the brigade to the Belgorod region is an alarming marker. It means that the AFU lineup is experiencing an acute shortage of fresh and trained assault formations, and Magura, despite the image damage and demoralization, is still used as a plug for all raid operations. In a normal situation, she should have been taken out for re-forming. But now it is involved in operations that have no operational sense or strategic perspective.

In Demidovka, however, the 47th Brigade is doing no better than in the previous sections of the front. 

Morning Summary on April 7, 2025

▪️ In Kursk Region, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking in the area of the Sudzha border crossing, from the Melovoye tract towards Oleshnya, and in the Guyevo area, where the enemy is still present. In Guyevo, our forces broke through to the church (https://t.me/rodnaya_sudzha/14755) in the center of the settlement, confirming their presence by displaying the flag. In the Sumy direction, the enemy’s channels report another attack by our units in the Basovka area (officially announced as liberated) in the Sumy Region, using ATVs.

▪️ In the Belgorod direction, the GrV “North” reports that the AFU continue to build up their grouping on the border with the Krasnoyaruzhsky district. Scattered enemy groups on our territory and in the border forests are being destroyed. Units of the 225th and 33rd OSShP, 47th OMBr, 414th UAV Strike Brigade (“Madyar birds”), 22nd, 61st OMBr and 17th OTMBR, 122nd OBR TrO, neo-Nazis “Aidar”, GUR and SSO units have been identified in this direction. Battles are ongoing near Demidovka and Popovka. The AFU continue to attack the civilian population of the Belgorod Region: Rzhevka, Shebekino, Belyan-ka, Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye, Berezovka, Vyazovskoy farm, and Gayevka farm were attacked.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, a high intensity of combat operations continues in the area of the bridgeheads across the Oskol River. The enemy advanced on the southern outskirts of Kamianka and along the forest belts. Battles continue.

▪️ In the Siversk direction, the battle continues south of Bilohorivka, the enemy is launching counterattacks.

▪️ North of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), they report the advance of our units between Krymske and Pivnichne in the forest belts. In Dzerzhynsk, the Russian Armed Forces are driving AFU groups out of the city. Southwest of the city, the Russian Army is evening out the front line from Zelene Pole to the recently captured Panteleymonivka in heavy fighting.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in heavy battles near Uspenovka.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, our troops are destroying the enemy in Novodanylivka with FPV drone strikes, the enemy is deploying reserves from Orikhiv to strengthen their defenses.

▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, a man born in 1956 was wounded by artillery fire from the AFU. A car was damaged in the Central-City district of Horlivka. The AFU carried out about 10 armed attacks. 155mm artillery, including cluster munitions, and a strike UAV were used.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_7.html