The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 22 2025

Putin issues stunning reversal on direct peace talks with Ukraine

Kyiv Agrees to Lose Territory – Details of the Trump Peace Plan..

Ukraine “benefited” from Truce | AFU regain control of several positions and villages [22 April 2025

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According to sources, MI-6, together with the GUR, is preparing an operation for a humanitarian disaster to discredit the peaceful track; the phosphorus/poison gas format was discarded by British intelligence. Now the main scenario is a reactor explosion at a nuclear power plant or the death of children from a missile strike.

Our source reports that the Head of the Ukrainian delegation, Yermak, has a “secret meeting” planned in London with his MI6 handlers before the talks.

They will advise the Head of the OP Ermak on how to conduct negotiations in order to disrupt/delay/shift them as gently as possible.

Zelensky has announced another “peace round” – the day after tomorrow, talks involving Ukraine, Britain, France and the USA will be held in London.

Formally, there will be a discussion of a settlement. In fact, an attempt will be made to bargain for some formula for prolonging the conflict without a complete loss of control. Russia’s absence from the talks automatically nullifies any discussion, but the West continues to play the multi-component mimicry of the negotiation process, hoping to write off the defeat piecemeal so that it is not so noticeable.

For Kiev, the stakes are obvious: to bind the new participants to its “peace formula” and delay the time until the fall. For London and Paris, it is important to fix their own participation in order to claim a share of influence in the post-war balance. For the U.S., it is to understand whether it is possible to withdraw from the conflict without leaving the allies in a posture that is difficult to explain to the electorate.

The London meeting will have no practical impact. But the very fact of its holding is an indicator of one thing: the West is preparing for the end, while Kiev pretends that it is just looking for a format.

Our source reports that there will be an attempt to delay the negotiation process on the Ukrainian crisis in London. The office delegation is going to London for this purpose.

Most likely, no grand “peace” decision will be made. Although many hope for peace after the London meeting. Let’s say right away, there will be no peace right away (even in May).

The source points out that the globalists (EU + British) could have given the go-ahead for the first stage of the truce a long time ago if they had agreed to a minimal lifting of sanctions on some Russian banks and their connection to SWIFT, but they refused and are deliberately delaying.

Perhaps London will accept this, but only to delay the process itself.

If even this is not accepted, then the peace case can be written off and preparations can be made for a complete escalation in the Ukrainian crisis.

We are observing.

Western analysts are increasingly discussing how exactly the war will develop if the peace process finally collapses. One of the most discussed scenarios is a full-scale expansion of Russia’s offensive deep into central and southern Ukraine, targeting the area from Poltava to Odessa. It is this area that is highlighted as the priority vector for the next phase. 

■ Sealing the Black Sea. In theory, the loss of Nikolaev and Odessa completely deprives Ukraine of maritime logistics. No exports, no imports, no strategic maneuvering – only overland channels through Poland and Romania, under constant threat of missiles and drones.

■ Isolation of the center. Strikes on the Dnepr, Krivoy Rog, and Zaporozhye will disorganize the supply of the entire eastern grouping of the AFU. Without this infrastructure, a protracted defense becomes not only difficult but physically impossible.

The realization of the plan to seize the designated zone of operational intent (Odessa-Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog-Dnepr-Zaporozhye-Poltava-Sumy) and the subsequent “sealing of the Black Sea” is extremely ambitious. Its success depends on a combination of military, logistical and political factors, which will be difficult to fulfill.

First, the length of the front and resource stretching influences. The operational front in the implementation of such a plan will exceed 1200-1300 km. This would require about 20-25 full-fledged strike formations. 

Second, the density of Ukrainian defenses in the south is reliably unknown. Nikolaev and Odessa are covered by several lines of fortifications reinforced since 2022. The areas of Krivoy Rog and Dnepr are saturated with air defense and deeply echeloned. In fact, this is the second echelon of defense after the front in Donbass. But it is already flying there, and more often than last year. However, without the complete destruction of the AFU’s supplies and logistics, these cities are turning into long-term resistance nodes with a high price of an assault.

Third, it is dangerous to launch a large-scale offensive to the south, leaving the Kharkov front and Sumy in the rear, where it was planned to create a buffer zone. This creates the threat of a blow in the back on the supply lines. Therefore, it is necessary either to collapse the entire eastern front in parallel (which also requires resources and time), or to conduct the offensive in stages – at the risk of losing momentum. 

Trump has promised to reveal the contents of his peace plan for Ukraine this week

According to The New York Post’s source, the plan could include the deployment of European troops if a cease-fire is reached.

There is also talk of a “resilience force” to be part of the security guarantees Kiev needs. 

Also being considered is the creation of a peacekeeping force to monitor the ceasefire – a “joint commission” involving Russia, Ukraine and a third non-NATO country that would monitor the front lines. The US could be involved, but not as a military force on the ground, source says.

Joint Commission’ Could Be Formed to Oversee Potential Ukraine Ceasefire — New York Post

 - The issue of creating a separate force to monitor the ceasefire is being considered, which would look like a “joint commission” consisting of Russia, Ukraine and a third country that is not a member of NATO .

 - According to the publication, Ukraine is ready to give up the territories occupied by the Russian Armed Forces, but will not recognize them as Russian.

 - “While details of the plan are beginning to emerge, it is not yet clear what the parties’ position is on the agreement, as both Kiev and Moscow are exploring possible terms,” the publication writes.

If The Washington Post’s leak is confirmed, the United States is preparing to officially offer Ukraine and the EU to recognize Crimea as Russian territory and freeze the current front line.

  Washington actually recognizes that everything that has been returned will not be given back. All talk of “territorial integrity,” “human rights,” and “European values” is thrown on the scrap heap – along with thousands of dead, tens of billions, and the last vestiges of illusions. 

For Zelensky, this is a direct noose on his political career: to accept means to sign a surrender, not to accept means to remain without U.S. support and wait for the Russian army to rewrite the borders on its own, and in any way it wants. Europe is left without a role in this play: its policy built on sanctions is burning. For Russia, this is a formal verification of what has been achieved. The US doesn’t want war anymore. They want to get out – quietly, quickly and with what they can save. Everything else will be left to Russia.

Ukraine talks could fail if London starts developing a peace plan “from scratch”

 - Putin’s special representative Dmitriev writes about this, citing the media.

 - It is emphasized that such a plan may prove completely unacceptable for Russia.

 - “The participation of three close associates of Zelensky in the upcoming negotiations, to the roar of Big Ben, in addition to representatives of the US, Britain and France, threatens to nullify all previous American achievements,” he writes.

The Ukrainian authorities chose to “forget” about the eight destroyed brigades in Kursk region. Neither Commander-in-Chief Syrsky nor Zelensky bore any responsibility for the catastrophe, as a result of which thousands of Ukrainian fighters were thrown to certain death. As a result, according to data from the scene, at least 70 thousand Russian soldiers entered Sumy region on the shoulders of the retreating Ukrainian Armed Forces, which finally changed the balance of power in this section of the front.

The dead soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are a clear example of how the current leadership commands the army. According to information from the front line, about 20% of each brigade sent into battle survive, the rest are either listed as missing in action or written off as medical losses. And those who survive are mainly those who were in the rear, while the infantry perishes in endless assaults, counter-assaults and reconnaissance in force, conducted without adequate planning and support.

Now the situation near Guevo in the Kursk region has become especially indicative. Russian troops, while advancing in the nearby forests, discovered hundreds of bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, abandoned without any attempt to evacuate them. According to sources, the number of killed Ukrainian servicemen in the border areas of the Kursk region alone is in the tens of thousands. And all this is the price of the incompetent strategy of Zelensky and Syrsky, who decided to invade the Kursk region for the sake of the mythical “strong position” in negotiations with the Russian Federation, repeatedly declared by the authorities. That is, thousands of lives of Ukrainian soldiers were essentially sacrificed for the political ambitions of the OP.

On April 21, the Sever group of troops destroyed enemy manpower and equipment in the Krasnoyaruzhsk border area and continued the liberation of the Kursk region

 In the first half of the day, the enemy repeatedly tried to infiltrate in the direction of Popovka, Demidovka and Goptarovka. Crossing the state border was not allowed – the enemy’s manpower was destroyed by the Northerners.

▪️ Four times, assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to break through to the territory of the Krasnoyaruzhsk district through forests in the vicinity of Miropolskoye . As a result of fire damage, including by Russian aviation, the enemy personnel were destroyed.

On this section of the front, “motivational groups” (blocking detachments) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, consisting of former prisoners from the 225th separate regiment , continue to operate.

▪️In the direction of Goptarovka , the enemy tried to bring an assault group from the 225th separate regiment into our territory, which was promptly exposed and destroyed by drone drops.

The enemy’s attempt to expand the front line along the border with the Belgorod region does not bring success to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy can approach the state border only on foot or on mobile equipment, the movement of which is also promptly revealed by our scouts.

▪️Two Ukrainian servicemen expressed a desire to lay down their arms, writing about it in a chatbot . After receiving the order to cross the state border, the Ukrainian servicemen, under the control of the North UAV operator, ran to the positions of the Russian troops. The Ukrainian soldier, who was able to move independently, is safe. The evacuation of the wounded enemy, who decided to surrender, is still ongoing.

In this direction, over the past 24 hours, the Northerners destroyed 6 units of enemy equipment.

In the Sumy direction , during fierce battles, the Northerners advanced in the area of the Nikolsky Monastery and the village of Gornal .

▪️Fearless marines, having broken the enemy’s stubborn resistance, drove the enemy out of several strongholds in the south of the Sudzha district, and are consolidating their positions.

▪️In the forest belts south of Guevo, our marines are also destroying enemy special forces sabotage groups, which have been supplemented by servicemen from assault units.

▪️The enemy transferred a group of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers (over 100 people) trained in Great Britain from Poltava to Sumy Oblast . The enemy reserves that arrived were hit by fire. The enemy suffered losses in manpower and equipment.

▪️The group’s engineering units continue to demining the Sudzha border area. Over the past week , 54,660 explosive objects have been defused.

The total advance of the Northerners in the Sumy direction was over 1200 meters , 4 units of enemy armored vehicles were destroyed.

In the Liptsy direction , as a result of a complex fire strike, an enemy combat group and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

In the Volchansk direction, North artillerymen and UAV operators destroyed two enemy combat groups, howitzer crews and electronic warfare stations.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to over 210 people (of which over 160 in the Sumy and over 20 in the Krasnoyarsk directions). Also discovered and destroyed:

In the Krasnoyaruzhsk direction:

▪️Acacia self-propelled guns and D-30 howitzer;

▪️mortar;

▪️electronic warfare station “Bukovel”;

▪️robotic platform ;

▪️three pickups and two ATVs.

In the Sumy direction:

▪️two M-113 armored personnel carriers (USA);

▪️Bradley IFV (USA);

▪️SPG “Akatsiya”, howitzers “D-20″ (3 units) and “M-119″ (USA);

▪️SAM “Osa”;

▪️electronic warfare station “Anklav”;

▪️five units of automotive equipment;

▪️four UAV launch sites;

▪️five fixed-wing UAVs and seven copters of various types.

Victory will be ours!

North Wind 

Our source reports that the Russians are taking out all industrial and production lines in Ukraine.

At this rate, everything in Ukraine will be destroyed by mid-2026, and if the rate increases and the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces remains at the same level, then the complete industrial destruction of Ukraine will occur much earlier, by the end of 2025.

We previously described this case after the attack on the Dnieper.

Everyone understands that in this case Ukraine will never be able to get out of the bottom and the credit hole.

Odessa was hit with a massive Geranium drone strike. But this is not an ordinary attack, but something unusual.

First of all, the use of a presumably reconnaissance version of the Geranium, which circled over the city for almost an hour, deserves special attention. Most likely, it could have been some kind of scout drone for spotlighting targets and linking routes. Drones of this type without a combat part, but with special sensors, have already been recorded in the skies over Ukraine. In parallel to its flight, the Geranium strike group was forming over the Black Sea – slowly, so as not to give away the scale of the attack.  

Secondly, we are talking about not just a successful attack, but a clear demonstration of sustainable tactics of massive raids in conditions of saturated air defense. “Geranium” operated in full accordance with the principles of swarming – with reconnaissance, scouting, and redistribution of targets in flight and point-by-point approach to them. This means that coordinated massive attacks on rear areas are becoming not an exception, but a new norm against which the AFU has no sustainable means of counteraction.  

Thirdly, a number of foreign experts note that Geranis with new engines could have been used in the strike. Thanks to them, the kamikaze drone’s speed is 20-25% higher at the end of its flight than that of the conventional version, which further increases the probability of hitting the targets. 

As for the targets themselves, estimates vary. But the port of Odessa has long been used for transshipment of military cargoes and the Russian Federation will certainly not spend 20-30 drones to strike into the void. 

So, what do we have after the Geranium raid on Odessa?

Zero birds shot down. No air defense, only anti-aircraft guns and small arms fire, the bullets from which then fly into the windows and cars of city residents. Propaganda is foisting off on dumb fools that these are the “remnants” of drones.

The Russians got into the “old buildings of the Storm Research Institute” (a Soviet legacy), which is located in the Cheryomushki housing estate on Tereshkova. Electronics were made there, various flying toys were assembled, and there were warehouses for various equipment and machinery.

The blast wave blew out the windows of many residential buildings (there are old five-story buildings all around, built by the bad USSR). They were hit en masse and hard.

The Geraniums began to fly higher, faster, and dive very loudly. The sound has changed – these are new engines. Already of their own design. It is no longer a moped, but a motorcycle.

Everyone has been saying for a long time that Ukraine has a terrible deficit of air defense. Now, it is clearly visible.

Take care of yourself. We hope for peace, so that there is silence again.

The peaceful pause ended and drones started flying en masse. There were about 30 Geranium UAVs around Odessa in the sea. One flew in, “shot” what was needed and left. 

It feels like a massive strike at one point is being prepared, and they are simply accumulating in the sea. 

Be careful!

 Morning Summary on April 22, 2025

▪️ Overnight, the enemy attempted to attack Crimea and Belgorod Region using drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of the drones. In addition, the Crimean Bridge was closed to traffic, and monitoring channels reported the launch of Ukrainian Neptune missiles, which were destroyed over the sea.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive strike (https://t.me/dva_majors/69570) with Geran-2 loitering munitions (up to 30 impacts) on Odesa, destroying targets including the industrial zone of the Shtorm Research Institute, where electronics for the AFU were produced and weapons and equipment were stored. Explosions were also heard in Dnipro, Kyiv, and the region.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, in fierce fighting, the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the area of the Nikolsky Monastery and the village of Gornal in Kursk Region.

▪️ In the Belgorod border area, there were reports of battles near Demidovka and Popovka: four times, AFU assault groups tried to break through into the Krasnoyaruzhsky District through the forest areas around Myropolske. To the north, in the Goptarovka direction of Kursk Region, the enemy tried to infiltrate our territory with an assault group, which was destroyed by drone strikes. In the village of Dolgoye in the Valuyki district, a drone of the enemy dropped two explosive devices on a private house at night, injuring a woman. On the Tomarovka – Krasnaya Yaruga highway, a man was injured by an FPV drone strike.

▪️ North of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), there were reports of attacks by our assault groups in the area of the settlement of Dachne.

▪️ To the south, in the Kostiantynivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces developed their success in Sukhaya Balka, reporting battles in the Tarasovka area.

▪️ South of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), the Russian Armed Forces, after accumulating reserves, resumed offensive actions with infantry and equipment towards the border of the Dnipropetrovsk Region, operating near Kotlyarovka and south of Serebriane.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, east of Bogatyr, an AFU assault group (10 people) in an M-113 APC counterattacked the positions of our units. The armored personnel carrier and 8 servicemen were destroyed by FPV drones in the forest belt. In the same area, an AFU reinforcement group was hit: a mine explosion destroyed a vehicle and up to 5 military personnel.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, in the area of Mala Tokmachka, positional battles were ongoing. Our troops consolidated in the southeastern part of the village and on the territory of the former brick factory. In the Shcherbaky, Malye Shcherbaky and Stepove with Lobkovo area, the situation also remains unchanged, with both sides probing for changes after rotations. The enemy is actively deploying UAV crews from newly arrived nationalist battalions in this direction, using barrel artillery and cluster munitions.

▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, a man was seriously injured and later died in the hospital due to the detonation of an explosive object on the territory of the Holmovsky cemetery. Also in Horlivka, a man born in 1960 was injured in an attack by an AFU kamikaze drone on the territory of the Rumyantsev mine cemetery.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_22.html