Steven Crowder: "80 Percent Chance the Next President Is a Democrat" (Video)
In this 4 November 2026 published Triggernometry video, host Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster talk with Steven Crowder who discusses why the right is splitting, from Trump’s record and the Iran war to the online personalities he accuses of selling conspiracy theories. He also argues that “woke 2.0” is just the old agenda repackaged, takes on economic populism and class mobility, and shares his Israel stance and his lawsuit against CNN.
Political commentator Steven Crowder stated that there is an 80 percent chance a Democrat will win the 2028 presidential election if Democrats flip the U.S. Senate and control both chambers of Congress. Crowder shared this assessment as a warning to conservative voters against sitting out elections in protest.
Crowder outlines a scenario where Democrats control both chambers of Congress during a Republican presidency. He stated that under those historical conditions, Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the presidency in 2028. Note that this figure represents Crowder’s personal commentary and political analysis as of November 4, 2026, rather than formal polling data. According to summaries of his remarks shared by debatenation1 on Instagram on November 12, 2026, Crowder pushed back against commentators encouraging conservative voters to abstain from voting or vote Democratic to force a political reset. He argued that the individuals driving internal fracturing within the conservative movement have historically been inconsistent.
Crowder argued that if conservatives withhold their votes and allow Democrats to win, the Republican Party will not respond by nominating a more populist candidate. Instead, he warned that the party would revert to nominating establishment candidates similar to Mitt Romney or John McCain.
In related commentary on the PBD Podcast published on November 7, 2026, Crowder warned that Republicans risk taking the wrong lessons from the 2026 midterm elections. He argued that moderating conservative stances or retreating from populism would be a strategic mistake.
https://youtu.be/Dtjhtm_TW2E
00:00 Trailer
01:28 Steven Crowder’s Journey to the Right
08:03 Trump’s Victory and the MAGA Divide
11:04 Trump’s Record and Foreign Policy
14:11 Is the Left Abandoning Free Speech?
17:43 Ad: Ethos
18:53 The Future of the Republican Party
25:25 Trump’s Changing Economic Views
27:20 The Culture War’s Lasting Impact
30:50 Why Woke 2.0 Could Be Worse
32:07 The Changing Definition of Consent
34:04 How the Left Repackages Woke Ideas
37:10 Abortion and Democratic Politics
40:32 Ad: Shopify
41:32 Economic Populism and Class Mobility
50:00 Immigration and the Welfare State
56:30 Charity, Tipping and Personal Responsibility
01:06:16 Brazil’s Political Crisis
01:09:09 Why Political Debate Is Broken
01:12:31 How Generations Shape Political Views
01:15:25 The Rise of Right-Wing Conspiracy Media
01:18:25 Evidence, Truth and Conspiracy Theories
01:45:59 What’s The One Thing We’re Not Talking About?
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