The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world

THE PEOPLES PAPER  Please publish our stories and share them on social media. We are dependent upon donations. Visitors welcome to visit  BOOKS or BUY FROM  AUTHOR   [email protected] 

On December 21, 1989, tens of thousands of unpaid Romanian miners gathered in Revolution Square to listen to ‘calm down’ platitudes from Communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu. In cowed silence they heard the tyrant out until 8 minutes into his speech, one miner punched the air and screamed ‘OUT!’

Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu, centre, in his final address to the people on Dec. 21, 1989.

A horrified silence followed and then ten, thirty, one hundred, a thousand and thousands of fists were launched into the air with the ‘OUT!’ chorus on lips.

Failing to control the gathering storm, Ceausescu his with his family and entourage inside the building of the Central Committee of the Romanian Communist Party. Just four days later, the dictator was dead and his regime replaced.

Much the same was happening throughout Europe from the Baltic States, through Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and in Moscow itself. The collapse of the Soviet Union followed.

In 2014, a few Ukrainian protesters sponsored by Washington DC and deceived by the EU into believing ‘regime change would guarantee EU membership, gathered in Maidan Square, Kyiv. Days later, the reasonably popular elected government was overthrown and the 40% popularity-rated President Yanukovych fled the country.

In 2003, the people of Georgia ousted Eduard Shevardnadze through the bloodless Rose Revolution. Protestors stormed the parliament building holding the flowers in their hands.

Earlier this year, the presidents of Sudan and Algeria both announced they would step aside after decades in office, thanks to peaceful campaigns of resistance.  In each case, civil resistance by ordinary members of the public trumped the political elite to achieve radical change.

Compelling research by Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist confirms that civil disobedience is the most powerful way of shaping world politics. Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. Around 3.5% of the population participating in the protests ensured serious political change.

By the end of this process, they had collected data from 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns. And their results were striking.

Overall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests.

This was partly the result of strength in numbers. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to succeed because they can recruit many more participants which can cause severe disruption that paralyses normal urban life and the functioning of society. The nonviolent campaigns attracted around four times as many participants (200,000) as the average violent campaign (50,000).

Once around 3.5% of the whole population has begun to participate actively, success appears to be inevitable. 

The anti-Soviet Singing Revolution in Estonia and the Rose Revolution in Georgia all reached the 3.5 per cent threshold. There weren’t any campaigns that failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event

By engaging broad support across the population, nonviolent campaigns are also more likely to win support among the police and the military, the very groups that the government should be leaning on to bring about order.

During a mass protest, the members of the security forces may also be more likely to fear that their family members or friends are in the crowd. Or when they’re looking at the numbers of people involved, they may conclude the ship has sailed, and they don’t want to go down with the ship.

In terms of the specific strategies that are used, general strikes are probably one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, single method of nonviolent resistance.

Ordinary people, all the time, are engaging in pretty heroic activities that are actually changing the way the world, and those deserve some notice and celebration as well. ~ Mike Walsh.

Second source  BBC 

Video Last speech of Nicolae Ceaușescu, 21. December 1989

Video Anniversary of the final days of Ceaușescu regime

Video  TIMISOARA DEC 1989 ROMANIAN UPRISING

MICHAEL WALSH is a worldwide journalist, broadcaster and author of 64 book titles with 36 years experience. Like other journalists of integrity, he no longer writes for corporate media, opting instead for true journalism.

NEVER MISS ANOTHER STORY: Home Page right-hand column scroll down and click FOLLOW.  PLEASE LIKE US and SHARE. 

MICHAEL WALSH is a journalist, broadcaster and the author of RISE OF THE SUN WEEL, EUROPE ARISE,  TROTSKY’S WHITE NEGROES, MEGACAUST,  DEATH OF A CITY, WITNESS TO HISTORY, THE BUSINESS BOOSTER , THE FIFTH COLUMN VOLUME I and II, FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT SPEAK, IMMORTAL BELOVED, THE ALL LIES INVASION, INSPIRE A NATION Volume I, INSPIRE A NATION Volume II , SLAUGHTER OF A DYNASTY , REICH AND WRONG,  THE RED BRIGANDS, RANSACKING THE REICH ,    SCULPTURES OF THE THIRD RIECH: ARNO BREKER AND REICH SCULPTORS  , SCULPTURES OF THE THIRD RIECH:  JOSEF THORAK AND REICH SCULPTORS ,   The Exiled Duke Romanov Who Turned Desert Into Paradise , THE DOVETAILS and other book titles. These illustrated best-selling books are essential for the libraries of informed readers.

MICHAEL WALSH BOOK CLUB: Set up a Standing Order minimum of €25 (£25) to my UK bank account each month to receive every 3-months a FREE SIGNED copy of any book from our BUY FROM AUTHOR LINK.

THE BARNES REVIEW is considered by historians as the world’s most prestigious source of bona fide essays and information. Michael Walsh is a key member of the periodical’s Board of Contributing Editors. See www.BarnesReview.com   https://barnesreview.org/

THE LIVERPOOL  TETRALOGY

The revenge of a predator is a city-vigilante epic better than Death Wish A LEOPARD IN LIVERPOOL , 30 lavishly illustrated first-hand stories by a Liverpool sailor  BELIEVING OF LIVERPOOL, Latest Killer-Thriller From Michael Walsh the City Vigilante Supremo The Stigma Enigma , A powerful thought-provoking paranormal romance The Soul Meets, How to form a naughty ménage a trois THE DOVETAILS.

Latest Michael Walsh bestsellers: Those who fall victim to the taxman, banks and moneylenders are victims of legalised mugging  DEBTOR’S REVENGE, The Business Booster shows you how to double your profits not your workload THE BUSINESS BOOSTER 

The dissident author’s books available for purchase by visiting his website BOOKSTORE, BUY FROM AUTHOR and POETRY  links.

We are in debt to our donors (click ESPRIT DE CORP) who finance the distribution of spin-free real news and fearlessly expressed views.

KEEP REAL NEWS OPEN: Donate by using Western Union, MoneyGram, Ria, registered mail or contact Michael Walsh: [email protected] or [email protected] 2) Follow our blog. 3) Share our stories and 4) buy our author-signed books. 5) Receive free newsletters by writing subscribe to [email protected]

Michael Walsh currently has eight books listed under BUY DIRECT. Royalties will be ploughed into adding further popular titles declared taboo by the treacherous troika; Amazon, Facebook, and Mainstream Media. When ordering the book contact Michael Walsh by email [email protected] to receive your signed copy.

www.mikewalshwritingservices.wordpress.com

BOOKS THAT CHALLENGE, INSPIRE, INFORM Michael Walsh, ‘Writer of the Year’ with a strong global following. Nearly 64 interesting Amazon book titles famed for changing and improving lives. CLICK TO VIEW  www.mikewalshwritingservices.wordpress.com

New stories every day!

THE ETHNIC-EUROPEAN

The Voice of Ethnic-Europeans Worldwide

https://europeansworldwide.wordpress.com/

https://ethnic-european.blogspot.com/