Exit polling shows Catholics almost evenly split between Democrats, Republicans in 2026 midterms

Catholics voted about equally for Democrats and Republicans in the 2026 midterms, exit polls show, with Catholic voters shifting their alignment from 2024 to help propel Democratic politicians to their historic victories on Nov. 3.

Exit polling data released by NBC News shows the Catholic vote almost equally split between Democratic and Republican politicians this year, with the network reporting 50% of Catholic voters choosing Democrats and 49% choosing Republicans.

The even split marks a notable departure from the 2024 presidential election, which saw just 39% of Catholic voters casting ballots for Democrat Kamala Harris and 59% of them voting for Republican Donald Trump, according to NBC data from that year.

Andrew Chestnut, the Bishop Walter F. Sullivan chair in Catholic studies at Virginia Commonwealth University, told EWTN News that the results represent a “notable shift” from 2024, though “it remains to be seen whether this represents a lasting political realignment.”

He noted that a closer read of polling data reveals a more nuanced view of the Catholic voting bloc.

“The preliminary exit polls underscore the considerable diversity of American Catholicism, with 56% of white Catholics voting Republican compared with 65% of Hispanic Catholics who favored Democrats,” he said.

“Equally noteworthy is the generational divide, with 65% of Catholics under 29 voting Democratic,” he said, though he pointed out that “younger voters’ preferences do not necessarily predict their political allegiances later in life.”

The stronger Latino Catholic vote for Democrats likely reflects a response to Trump’s hard-line immigration policies, Chestnut said. The president’s public criticism of Pope Leo XIV earlier in the year “could also have influenced some voters,” he noted, though “the extent of either effect is difficult to establish.”

Though the Catholic vote in the midterms broke markedly from 2024, the 2026 numbers are similar to other recent elections in which NBC obtained exit polling data. Exit polling in 2016 showed 46% of Catholics voting for Hillary Clinton that year and 50% voting for Trump, while in 2020 Catholics voted for Democrat Joe Biden over Trump by a 52% to 47% margin.

Though Catholics were evenly divided between both major parties in 2026, other religions broke heavily for Democrats, according to the exit poll data.

Muslim voters reported voting Democratic 86% of the time, according to the network’s data, while 68% of Jewish voters cast Democratic ballots.

Those who identified their religious affiliation as “none,” meanwhile, were 78% in favor of Democrats, with just 20% voting Republican.

Chestnut said high Democratic support from “nones” reflects the “growing electoral significance of religiously unaffiliated Americans,” while high Muslim support “point[s] to the diversity of the partyʼs religious coalition.”

Regarding the Catholic vote, meanwhile, “ultimately, the results reinforce the importance of Catholics as a potentially pivotal constituency whose voting patterns reflect differences in ethnicity, generation, and political outlook, rather than any unified Catholic political identity,” he said.