Superforecasting with the Good Judgement Project

For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Korean politics as part of , an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence community.

According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.

Nextbigfuture reported on the Good Judgement project back in Dec, 2013

Brian Wang joined the project and began trading on predictions on Jan 9, 2014.

Getting good results is not just about making good predictions.
* It is about making quick predictions as soon as new propositions appear to help get the early shift from 50% to the direction of the likely result
* it is also about making bigger bets on predictions where results are more certain
* it is also about anticipating shifts in the feelings of the crowd toward predictions

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