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CDC warns that by Jan 20, 2015 Ebola could reach 1.4 million cases with 70% fatality without more successful intervention and progreess

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This week’s MMWR, Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic—Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015, estimates the future number of cases if current trends continue. The MMWR also adjusts the number of cases based on estimated underreported cases.

By September 30, 2014, CDC estimates that there will be approximately 8,000 cases, or as high as 21,000 cases if corrections for underreporting are made.

Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.

Cases in Liberia are currently doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone and Guinea are doubling every 30-40 days.

Halting the epidemic requires that approximately 70% of Ebola cases be cared for in Ebola Treatment Units or, if they are at capacity, at home or in a community setting in which there is a reduced risk of disease transmission and safe burials are provided.

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Source: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/09/cdc-warns-that-by-jan-20-2015-ebola.html


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    Total 3 comments
    • Smoovie

      It WILl be in your neighborhood. Prepare to DIE :!: :mrgreen:

    • neanderthal

      I will take this as the good news for the day.

    • nappinglady - 1931

      There never will be a proper death toll, there are so many that are just laying about in the brush, in houses/huts… it probably is way more than is reported now. I do think that this is being greatly under reported.

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