Currency forecast by quarter through 2015

Scotia Bank of Canada has a 14 page currency forecast which looks at most major and minor currencies into 2015 by quarter.

The US Dollar (USD) is in high demand, outperforming most major peer currencies around the world. Convergence of solid macroeconomic developments and bullish dynamics in US debt and equity securities support a continuous appreciating path for the US currency. Both Canada and the US will benefit from a robust US economic cycle. The Canadian dollar is expected to stabilize, whereas the Mexican peso (MXN) may be subject to adjustments linked to shifts in US monetary policy direction.

The Euro (EUR) is directionally weakening against all currencies on the back of persistently fragile economic conditions, unattractive interest rate differentials, and escalating geo-political risk factors. The British pound (GBP) has adopted a defensive tone after a prolonged phase of fundamentally-inspired currency strength; however, growth and interest rate differentials in the UK support a positive currency outlook. The Russian Ruble (RUB) should continue to weaken, prompting loss of international reserves assets and central bank intervention.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to retain a soft tone driven by damaging economic effects related to fiscal consolidation efforts under way and from a broad-based market move in favor of the USD. The Chinese Yuan (CNY) continues in its relentless multi-month appreciation in line with the authorities’ commitment to structural reforms and capital account liberalization.

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