Europe Facing Catastrophic Flooding by The End of The Century

The scientists found unprecedented flood risk unless timely adaptation measures are taken.

In order for Europe to keep future coastal flood losses constant relative to the size of the economy, defence structures need to be installed or reinforced to withstand increases in extreme sea levels ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 metres.
Why the added risk?

Climate change is the main driver of the projected rise in costs from coastal flooding, with the importance of coastward migration, urbanisation and rising asset values rapidly declining with time.

This is a change from the current situation globally, where rising risk has primarily been driven by socioeconomic development.

The rising extreme sea levels are primarily driven by the growing volume of water in the oceans as a direct result of temperatures increasing, a process known as thermal expansion.

Another major contributing factor is ‘ice mass loss’ – ice melting from glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica and making sea levels rise.
Background

In conducting this study, scientists used the JRC’s LISCoAsT – Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool, under the framework of the PESETA project and in cooperation with the European Commission’s department for climate action.

LISCoAsT is a coastal flood impact assessment tool that considers the spatial and temporal dynamics of all major components contributing to a flood’s severity and impact.

This includes dynamic, gridded projections of exposure, and changes in all extreme sea level components, from sea level to tides and storm surges.

Using the tool, the scientists conducted a global scale assessment accurate to 100 metres, around the same length as a football pitch.

The results of the studies have been published in Nature Climate Change and Nature Communication.

Contacts and sources:
European Commission Joint Research Centre