Climate Change Will Lead to Negative Effects on Population Dynamics of an Amazonian Anole

Climate change is negatively affecting Squamates all over the world, and the perspectives for the next 50 years are worrisome. Although more than 200 studies were published in the last 20 years on this subject, only 23 present some information on Anoles, and none of them focused on population dynamics – until now. In the most recent issue of Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part A: Molecular & Integrative Physiology, Diele-Viegas et al. evaluated the possible effects of climate change on two populations of three species of lizards from the Brazilian Amazonia, including Norops fuscoauratus.

The idea of this research came from the first author, Dr. Luisa, during her PhD classes back in 2017. She was taking classes on population ecology and had the idea of to combine environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which considers survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics andevaluate the impact of climate change on population dynamics of her study objects, Amazonian lizards. She thus started to search in the literature for articles that focused on something like what she was thinking, and discovered that this had not been done before, at least not for squamate reptiles. She also noticed that data on Amazonian lizards’ life history is very scarce on literature, which could be a deterrent to her getting the job done. After speaking with her advisors (Dr. Fred Rocha and Dr. Fernanda Werneck), Luisa decided to estimate a tolerance index considering the relationship between the upper temperature limit of the animal activity restriction and the environmental temperature of the microhabitat in which this animal occurs and used this index as an approximation of the populations’ survival rates. This allowed her and her advisors (both coauthors of this article) to circumvent the data scarcity and put Luisa’s idea into practice, leading to the publication of this article.

Considering the tolerance index mentioned, the authors predicted that Norops fuscoauratus is likely to became locally extinct at one of the evaluated sites, Reserva Ducke, which is an almost urban reserve in the Amazonian heart. The hatchlings’ tolerance to environmental change was considered the most sensitive vital trait evaluated, highlighting the species’ vulnerability. Also, considering that the response to selection is likely to be too slow in anoles, an evolutionary change in N. fuscoauratus is unlikely to occur considering current rates of environmental change, which reinforces the species’ vulnerability at local scale. This study represents the first effort to evaluate population sensitivity to climate change among reptiles. The authors highlight the need for new studies focusing on this subject to provide theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions to avoid the extinction of several species around the world. Also, Luisa highlights that, as scientists, we should always value our ideas – our curiosity is the fuel that moves science into progress.

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