Paper: The Systemic Misuse Of Extreme Scenarios In Climate Science
Climate science research and assessments have misused scenarios for more than a decade.
Symptoms of this misuse include the treatment of an unrealistic, extreme scenario as the world’s most likely future in the absence of climate policy and the illogical comparison of climate projections across inconsistent global development trajectories.
Reasons why this misuse arose include:
(a) competing demands for scenarios from users in diverse academic disciplines that ultimately conflated exploratory and policy-relevant pathways,
(b) the evolving role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – which effectively extended its mandate from literature assessment to literature coordination,
(c) unforeseen consequences of employing a nuanced temporary approach to scenario development,
(d) maintaining research practices that normalize careless use of scenarios in a vacuum of plausibility, and
(e) the inherent complexity and technicality of scenarios in model-based research and in support of [climate] policy.
As a consequence, the climate research community is presently off-track. Attempts to address scenario misuse within the community have thus far not worked.
The result has been the widespread production of myopic or misleading perspectives on future climate change and climate policy.
Until reform is implemented, we can expect the production of such perspectives to continue.
However, because many aspects of climate change discourse are contingent on scenarios, there is considerable momentum that will make such a course correction difficult and contested – even as efforts to improve scenarios have informed research that will be included in the IPCC 6th Assessment.
Read the abstract here
Download full paper (PDF)
Source: https://climatechangedispatch.com/paper-systemic-misuse-extreme-scenarios-climate-science/
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).