Is It SHTF Safe While Living Within 50 Miles Of 1-Million People?

Over the years I’ve often addressed the general topic of population density versus one’s security, well-being, and ability to survive following a long lasting SHTF event. Let’s have a new look at the issue, but this time from the standpoint of living in a seemingly safe geographical location – except that you’re still within 50 miles of a region with 1 million or more people…

The scenario is the following…

Let’s hypothetically say that you are living rural or in a region of suburbia with a relatively low population density. You feel pretty safe. You may even be living in a very small town or off the beaten path to the extent that it ‘feel’s like you’re far away from ‘the city’.

But here’s the flip side:
Within a 30 minute drive (or an hour) there is either a city or a population-dense region of 1 million or more people. You and your neighbors may even commute into this region for work…

The question:
Will you be safe during a long-lasting SHTF event?
To answer that question, you might consider the following in your decision matrix:

How severe is the SHTF event? Has it crippled essential services?

How long has the event been unfolding and how long until these people ‘truly’ become desperate and reach a point of serious ‘unrest’?

What will the 1 million people do? Will they sit and wait for help or for an ‘end’ to the event?
Or will some of them take to the road?

For those who take to the road while they search for essential services and supplies, will they potentially make it to your region 50 miles away?

How far might they get, and would they even become a potential threat to where you live?

Or would the chaos be mostly and only confined to the population-dense region (or city) itself?
The notion of the ‘zombie hordes’ comes into play. Will it actually happen?

If living within 50 miles, will you be in danger even while living relatively rural?
What’s the cutoff? 25 miles? 100 miles? more? less?
Lets hear your opinion about the hypothetical of living pretty close to population density, but seemingly far enough away so as not to be part of that region… Is it ‘safe enough’?

If not, then ‘why’? If yes, then ‘why’?

High Resolution Population Density ‘Dot’ Map

Population density is an important factor when it comes to analyzing many different things.

In the context of our website (preparedness and risk awareness), we might for example, examine population density versus the wide array of risks which could affect many numbers of people – including the various ways to mitigate or avoid them (the risks and/or the people) – and to plan emergency actions based on the expected behavior of the varying densities of people (disaster, SHTF, etc..)

A new and powerful high resolution mapping tool has been recently developed to indicate population density – literally detailing each person’s census location in the United States, displaying hundreds of millions of dots on the map…

Up until now, population density maps have generally been color shaded representations of regions, even so far as resolving down to the county level. This new map tool however resolves every person as a single dot on the map, and enables the user to zoom in to any region or neighborhood.

Brandon Martin-Anderson, a graduate student at MIT took ‘block data’ from the 2010 Census and transformed it into points on a map. One point per person.

Population Density Dot Map And How It Works

US Census data is available down to the level of the “census block” – in cities these often correlate to city blocks, but elsewhere they may be delineated by other features.

This map tool accesses the census data and gets the shape and boundaries of each block and the number of people recorded as living there. Then it places one dot for each person in the block shape.

There are 10 zoom levels to the map, resolving down to the neighborhood level. There is also a toggle on/off for labels with state boundaries, roads, etc..

As you experiment with the various map zoom levels and the blend of dots that they display, it becomes remarkably evident as to where the people live and where they are concentrated in varying degrees of density.

As you’re planning your preparedness actions or your bug-out route, this population density dot map is a great tool…

Map Of Money Paths Traveled And Population Density

A study performed by two grad students at Northwestern University reveals the patterns of human mobility, the movement of people, within the United States. The study was conducted by using a tracking system to ‘follow the money’, to track the serial numbers of one dollar bills as they made their way around the United States. After a while, patterns developed that indicated the paths that people took (and still take) as their dollar bills changed hands.

The interesting thing about the results is how it can be compared to existing United States population density maps. Knowing how important that population density is to the chances of survival following major disaster, I decided to overlay the ‘follow the money’ map with a population density map, and I added a third layer upon which I drew shaded areas where it appeared that fewer dollars exchanged hands. The assumption that I am made while doing this was that paths or regions that indicate less money changing hands was proportional or related to the travels of humans.

This third layer of ‘fewer dollars traveled’, coupled with actual population density, may provide a more focused view of the geographical regions within the United States that may be more conducive to survival after the apocalypse, should there ever be one.

Here is the map indicating the patterns of human mobility (follow the money). The interconnecting yellow and red lines indicate the paths that money travels. The red lines are more heavily traveled.

I added an overlay in the following map where I shaded areas that appeared to be mostly free of heavily traveled routes. It is all fairly subjective, while some regions are obviously less traveled than others.

In this last map, I’ve added a population density map (including state boundaries) over the shaded map, which now provides a better look as to where the less traveled regions actually are located.

A few observations and thoughts…

The assumption that fewer dollar bills changing hands equates to fewer people traveling the routes is somewhat flawed in that it could also mean that a given region simply has less money to spend, or spends less.

When you look at the shaded region in the south which includes parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and parts of Arkansas, you can clearly see that the region is fairly populated as indicated by the blotches of red and yellow of the population density map. So, in that part of the country, the fact that there is a bit less money changing hands is probably not so much to do with less travel as it may have to do with people having or spending less money. Having said that, that same region is not nearly as populous as the rest of the east, and may still represent a good choice for a survival location for a number of other reasons…

Hardly any money changes hands near the border of Mexico and Canada. This stands to reason due to national borders and currencies.

Looking at the shaded regions in Nevada makes sense because much of the state is desert. It’s split into two regions because a major freeway runs across it from Sacramento over to Salt Lake City (and all the way across the country).

There’s an interesting swath from southwest Texas up through eastern New Mexico, skirting eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Then there’s eastern Utah,  parts of Wyoming and Idaho, north and eastern Montana, and parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska.

Oh.. and there’s that bit of upper Maine.

You can see for yourself and make your own estimations by looking at the first map. There are lots of additional factors that go into the formula for an ideal survival location. This observation may simply be one of them. I found it very interesting to overlay the human mobility map (the dollar trail) with a population density map, and to draw observations. Plus, I like maps…

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source: modernsurvivalblog.com

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