Comet ISON - Countdown to Disintegration Before it Reaches Perihelion

I.Ferrin – THE COMETS’ PAGE:http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/cometspage/  It is called ISON because they used a telescope called the International Scientific Optical Network near Kislovodsk, in the northern Caucasus.
After the discovery was validated by the International Astronomical Union (IAU), interest in the enigmatic wanderer became huge.

Calculations showed that after looping around the Sun, the comet would become a blaze of glory towards the end of the year—a timing that gave it the tabloid title of “Christmas Comet” or even “Comet of the Century.”
But fears are multiplying that the great show will be cancelled.

Light signatures from ISON, which has just streaked past Mars, indicate the comet is about to break up, says Ignacio Ferrin, an astrophysicist at the University of Antioquia in Medellin, Colombia.
“This disintegration will take place before it reaches perihelion,” Ferrin told AFP in an email. Perihelion is an orbit’s closest point to the Sun, which ISON is supposed to reach on November 28.

IMAGE: HUBBLE/NASA

“There are also predictions for disintegration at perihelion. But based on the evidence, the comet will not get there,” said Ferrin.

He explained that comets typically brighten as they get closer to the Sun, crossing a temperature threshold that causes their icy surfaces to evaporate, depositing water vapour, other gases and dust in their wake.
But, said Ferrin, the light curve from ISON slowed down and then remained practically constant, with no sign of greater brightness, as it raced forward.

This is a signature that matches four previous comets that have broken up catastrophically, he said.

Update: October 20,2013
Added a new database by French observers. It shows the same tendency of the light curve to level off. Now five independent datasets show the same result.

See the Magnitude Prediction. http://urania.udea.edu.co/sitios/facom/press.php?#

Phys.org.com – Is the ‘Christmas Comet’ cracking up?http://phys.org/news/2013-10-christmas-comet.html

“The Impending Demise of Comet C/2012 S1 ISON”, I. Ferrin.http://arxiv.org/abs/1310.0552 

Cornell University Library ison
Outgassing Behavior of C/2012 S1 (ISON) From September 2011 to June 2013 http://arxiv.org/abs/1309.2688

Hubble Releases New Comet ISON Observations (Live Hang Out) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeN3W3WfEn4