Space Commercialization: Some Thoughts

So, apropos of the launch of four Axiom Space astronauts to the International Space station, I did a short interview with a writer in Singapore about the future of space commercialization. They asked me what I thought two big directions for commercialization would be. Now there are many directions space commerce can and will take. I chose two that have piqued my interest: space tourism and asteroid resource mining. Space tourism is more likely to happen sooner, mostly because the infrastructure for mining is still to be built. And, of course, the market needs to be defined and built. There ARE companies thinking about this, so it will happen. It just remains to be seen WHEN it will happen.

Space Commercialization: People Have Opinions

I noticed that after the Axiom launch, the discussion about commercializing space ramped up on the social media channels. Some people are all for commercializing space, while others disapprove of anything that smacks of space tourism for rich folks. I get that. We actually discussed it on the Weekly Space Hangout last week. Part of the conversation focused on the idea that it’ll be a long time before “regular folks” go to space. For the time being, rides to space are limited to the folks who can pay for it. Or, the folks are being sent by government agencies.

Surprise: It’s Not a New Idea

In truth, space has been commercialized for a long time. You could look at it one way and realize that the involvement of commercial enterprises has always been there. Who do you think built spacecraft for NASA? Aerospace companies. And that was the first step toward commercializing and industrializing space. That hasn’t changed. There are many companies involved in space and always have been. And, the whole New Space movement is predicated on younger, nimbler companies stepping up to do the business of space. A Harvard Business Review article published earlier this year pointed out that there are actually two main parts to the “space sector”—what they call “space for Earth” and “space for space.”

In “space for Earth”, companies are involved in creating goods and services produced in space for use here on the ground. That includes some very venerable “product”: Earth-observing satellites, national security assets, and research done on orbit (such as on the ISS).

Newer activities, such as the launch of Starlink (to provide Internet access), and advanced telecommunications, comprise others. It seems like there’s a Starlink or other launch every week or so. This ready access to space by SpaceX, ULA, RocketLab and others benefits from decreased launch costs for hardware, and so on. That’s really helped, for example, the satellite industry.

What’s the Future of Space Commercialization?

The future of space tourism and asteroid mining and the creation of goods and services produced in space for use on orbit, or on the Moon, or on the way to Mars—that’s a little farther out. I’m talking about things like building habitats, supply stations or research stations, bases for asteroid exploration, or jumping-off points to Mars, for example.

One other thing that I want to say is that while there is a lot of scoffing going on about the rich guys flying in space, the advent of space tourism isn’t that far away. And, if you can make money transporting the non-rich folks up for a suborbital or a quick stay at a station, there’s nothing stopping you from transporting folks who want to live and work in space—and that’s going to spur on a lot of other businesses.

We’re already seeing the seeds of this in the current commercialization—and that commercialization started way back in the 1960s. We maybe just didn’t realize it at the time. But, like it or not, the era of space commercialization is now entering new levels of investment in both funding and human capital.

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