Secret Agencies’ Activities Continue against Pakistan
By Sajjad Shaukat
Pakistan is the only nuclear country in the Islamic World. Besides, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is likely to be completed in the near future. Therefore, some Western countries, especially India and Afghanistan are continuously using their secret agencies in destabilising Pakistan, as development of this country annoy them.
In this connection, on February 11, this year, some media entities pointed out that Counter-Terrorism Wing of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) had issued summoned to the Pakistani Journalist and activist Gul Bukhari-a critic of the military. At present, she is living in the United Kingdom.
Afterwards, a circulated document said that FIA’s Counter-Terrorism Wing had initiated 35 inquiries against the “anti-state elements which also include militant group Balochistan Liberation Army and Haqqani Network who were involved in spreading provocative propaganda against national security agencies, judiciary and the government”.
It is notable that some media outlets reported on February 9, 2020 that a former spokesperson and the leading member of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ehsanullah Ehsan fled to Turkey after escaping from a prison in Pakistan. Ehsan was involved in the murder of thousands of Pakistanis through bloody terror attacks especially in Lahore, including the targeting of education activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai.
Meanwhile, on January 27, 2020, Paksitan’s police revealed that they have arrested prominent rights activist Manzoor Pashteen-the leader of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM), who is known for its harsh criticism of the country’s military in order to complete the anti-Pakistan agenda of some foreign powers.
Arrested in Bahrain through Interpol, Gilaman Pashteen who is PTM’s activist and is close friend of Manzoor Pashteen strongly condemned Manzoor’s arrest.
In this regard, Bahrain Mirror. Com wrote on February 7, 2020: “Bahrain is to deport a Pakistani resident Geelaman Pashteen to his country…who is an active advocate of the rights of Pashtuns facing persecution in Pakistan…According to information…Pashteen was arrested on Wednesday (February 6, 2020) by the Bahraini security authorities under pretext of a red notice against him from the Interpol”.
It is mentionable that the PTM held a public crowd in Bannu on January 12, this year, during which prominent leaders, including Manzoor Pashteen and MNA Ali Wazir and Mohsin Dawar, addressed the gathering in a video circulating on SM. Ali Wazir said that “we will cut down the barbed wires and fences which Pak Army has erected on Pak-Afghan border”.
Many times such statements have also been made by Afghanistan-based TTP and its representatives to criticize Pakistan and its security forces. But, Manzoor Pashteen never condemned violence against Afghans by the US-Afghan forces and externally sponsored Islamic State group ISIS.
As India has been experiencing violent protests across the country against the Anti-Muslim law, Indian Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 (CAA)/(The National Register of Citizenship) in wake of continued lockdown in the Indian occupied Kashmir and violations of Line of Control (LoC) by shelling inside Pakistani side of Kashmir, likes of PTM have been pushed by the foreign Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS) to instigate violence in Pakistan.
It is noteworthy that three people were killed and five soldiers injured in a clash between security forces and PTM protesters on May 26, 2019 in North Waziristan.
In this respect, the former DG of Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major-General Asif Ghafoor had said: “A group led by Mohsin Javed and Ali Wazir, assaulted Kharqamar check post, Boyya, North Waziristan tribal district…five soldiers were injured due to the firing of the group…three individuals who attacked the check post lost their lives during the exchange of firing. MNA Ali Wazir along with eight others has been arrested while Mohsin Javed is at large…Only few are inciting and using the people against state institutions for vested agenda. No one will be allowed to undo the gains of decades long national struggle and sacrifices especially of brave Pakistani tribals…Some of the people have become agents of the foreign forces. They are misguiding people by doing propaganda against the state.”
In this context, police registered an FIR against the PTM workers for shouting slogans against the army and Pakistan.
In fact, PTM was erected as a bogey by hostile agencies in the name of Pashtuns. Three leaders were created from local breakaway faction of Awami National Party (ANP) and activists of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Mohsin Dawar, who was courted in US by Hussain Haqqani’s (Former Ambassador of Pakistan in the US) SAATH forum and Stimson centre has become a pawn in the hands of anti-Pakistan agencies, mainly operating from Afghanistan. PTM leaders are pursuing the agenda through a web having signatures of foreign Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS).
Case of the US Army veteran Colonel Lawrence Sellin can be quoted as a new example. He has started tweeting on anti-Pakistan themes about China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan, Balochistan, Sub-nationalism (Pashtun, Sindhi, Mohajir, Baloch). He has been following the narratives mostly of Afghanistan’s intelligence agency National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Indian RAW which are in connivance with Israeli Mossad. He also writes anti-Pakistan Blogs and articles. The Baloch, PTM, sub-nationalists and Hussain Haqqani are his followers on twitter.
After reverses in Afghanistan and peace agreement between the US and Taliban, PTM leadership finds their space squeezed on both sides of Pak-Afghan border. Therefore, RAW and NDS are trying gimmicks and tricks in this losing battle and resurrection of PTM bogey is last ditch effort to save face.
Under the cover of fighting terrorism, these secret agencies which are in collaboration are supporting the militants of ISIS and TTP, including their linked outfits which have been conducting terror-assaults in Afghanistan and Pakistan as part of the secret strategy of the US-led countries—double game of America. Besides Pakistan, these terrorist groups have also been destabilising Tibetan regions of China and Iranian Sistan-Baluchistan through subversive activities.
Particularly, India and Afghan government which want to prolong the stay of NATO forces in Afghanistan are also playing double game with America. New Delhi knows that after the withdrawal of the NATO forces, Taliban will eliminate the secret network of RAW, TTP, the NDS and Mossad in that lawless country. Hence, these intelligence agencies are especially using the terrorists of TTP and ISIS in wakening Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It is of particular attention that this was the first time in the history of Pakistan that polling was held for elections of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in the merged tribal districts of FATA on July 20, 2019. In August 2019, 21 MPAs who were elected from merged districts, joined KP Assembly. But, PTM had opposed these elections. Pakistan Army played a key role in restoring peace in the tribal regions. Therefore, almost all political parties nominated their candidates for the constituencies. Army made strenuous efforts to bring the people of FATA in the mainstream of the country.
The tribal regions remained troubled for over a decade ever since the US-led so-called war on terror started. Pakistan’s Armed Forces and particularly Army have successfully broken the backbone of the foreign-backed terrorists by the military operations Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, while country’s primary intelligence agency ISI has broken the network of these terrorist groups by capturing several militants and thwarting a number of terror attempts. Besides other provinces, peace has been restored in the KP. In this regard, thousands of terrorists were killed and huge quantity of explosives seized during the operations of the security agencies.
Notably, to sustain the hard-earned peace, Pakistan Army is rapidly completing the fencing of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. It would stop preventing illegal cross-border movement—including those of terrorists who enter Pakistan from Afghanistan’s side and bring the drug-weapon trade to a halt. More than 800-kilometres of roads have been constructed in the tribal districts for their connectivity with other areas of the country, resulting in growing trade activities Therefore, an orchestrated campaign through external sponsored media and activation of the PTM and other anti-Pakistan entities to incite the Pashtoon population has been accelerated.
It is mentionable that external powers which have been supporting the Baloch Sub-Nationalists are also behind the anti-Pakistan elements as part of their unfinished anti-Pakistan agenda. They leave no stone unturned in misguiding the people of the Balochistan and particularly those of the KP by creating one after another issue. In this regard, the PTM and other anti-Pakistan hostile outfits like TTP have connections with RAW and NDS which aim at accentuating the ethnic cleavages in the country, influencing Pashtun population in pursuance of strategic objectives of the foreign powers. Especially, PTM has opposed the amalgamation of FATA/PATA with KP province, while, this amalgamation will result into multiple benefits for the people by overcoming their multi-faceted problems. Therefore, the merger of these regions was welcomed by the tribal people.
Some online sources suggested on June 6, 2014 that during the election campaign, Afghan presidential front-runner Abdullah Abdullah escaped an assassination attempt. Without any investigation, Kabul blamed Islamabad and the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group based in Pakistan for the attempt. In fact, RAW-NDS were behind that assassination attempt to create further unrest in Afghanistan, because it suits their clandestine designs both against Afghanistan and Pakistan.
As part of the double game, next phase of RAW-NDS may be collapse of the President Ashraf Ghani’s government, as non-Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks have started joining the Taliban.
In the recent past, some online reports disclosed that Mohsin Dawar and Ali Wazir, who are currently visiting Afghanistan, were received by Afghan National Army (ANF) at border and were transported from there to Presidential palace in ANF’s Helicopter. Such a protocol by enemies force raised a finger of suspicion about PTM and NDS nexus.
Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations
Email: [email protected]
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
Solution to Pakistan Imports/Trade deficit
The burgeoning Pakistani import kills the PKR (due to deficit and FX timing of flows in the spot cash and IBR market) and is a drain of FX earnings
But the solution is simple – just 5 steps.dindooohindoo
Step 1 – Ban all luxury imports
Ban all luxury imports,like the destruction of wine and alcohol cedars by Babar,in his conquest of Hindoosthan – as a moral proxy for the jehad in Kashmir,and the character required,to support the Kashmiri freedom struggle against Hindoo oppression.Within that,Liquor,Tobacco,Intoxicants and Cosmetics are easy for a Muslim and would appeal to the common Pakistani (as a sacrifice made by the Rich Pakistanis – in terms of abstinence)
Next are pristine luxuries – watches, cell phones,jewellery,cars and expensive bikes etc – which are really not required at this juncture.,Imports of Liquor etc can be allowed only for Diplomats and Foreign tourists in quotas renewed each year – and imported by CANALISED IMPORTS by Pakistan PSU only.(Embassies,in any case,can import free of restrictions under UN conventions)
Lastly, are autos.There is no need for people for import cars/bikes,if they already have 2 vehicles. So A TBT can be imposed that a certificate is sought on number of vehicles by actual user – at the time of remittance.Some people will use drivers names to import autos – so better to ban them outright.
At a later stage, sole manufacturing and assembly rights can be given to a few licensees to make these items in Pakistan so that the cost of power,labour and some materials are in PKR and the profits are retained for some time,so that some FX is saved,and the rest is postponed.
Most Asian nations are sitting on unused capacities and so low capital goods imports is not an issue,in any case
Step 2 – Restructure Imports paid by Inter bank route
For all imports paid by “inter bank route on CAD or DA” – shift it to LC mode on usance mode (from the Pakistani importer bank).The problem is that some importers may be making small imports and so the cut off limit by value, of imports by amount,can be set.The objective is to roll over the LC payments,as far as possible – so that the date of USD outflow is deferred,for the Pakistan banking system.
If cost of LC usance (on life cycle mode) is high – the importers can use SB LCs to secure the suppliers (who will discount the drafts on Day 1) and the rollover financiers.
As a result,the Pakistani importer will have surplus cash in that period and some importers will divert it – so that cash has to be blocked/liened by the bank on the date of the 1st date of rollover.During the tenor of the LC rollover,the FX position has to be hedged as a mandatory rule and the cash invested in safe T- Bills or Short dated GSecs,to finance the cost of the FX covers.
The importer wil earn a treasury profit,and will have time to fine tune the date of crystallisation of the FX rates on the date of remittances – vs using the IBR TTSR,as of today.In the alternate – Blue chip entities (in terms of ethics) can use the cash surplus of the LC,to discount supplier bills (whose deemed cost of capital is 25-30% per annum) with significant margin improvements for the importer and the suppliers
There is no dearth of banks who will roll over Pakistani LCs of 1st class banks (In Dubai/London/EU/New York. .For Non 1st class banks – some Pakistani Top rated bank or Foreign bank in Pakistan can add confirmation of the LC.LCs can by creative tools be rolled over – forever – till Jesus returns to earth.Some Hedge Funds also might also do it,as it is safe bet with a yield ,way over the USPR.
This will avoid squeeze of USD in the IB markets – data about which is known to bankers,and so is also known to speculators and then the grey market.It affords flexibility in pushing out USD payments at various points of time – and can be restricted at any time by the SBOP.The Uncertainty in the SBOP policy on rollovers will ensure that the market is unaware of the CRYSTALLISED FX Liability on ANY DATE for the banking system (as there will never be a CERTAIN CRYSTALLISED DATE)
So no punter will be able to speculate in the FX market,as the SBOP can change the crystallised liability on any date (unless the SBOP leaks the data) and the date of CRYSTALLISATION CAN BE CHOSEN IN SOME CASES, WHEN THE PKR HAS APPRECIATED
For large importers in Pakistan importing on 90 – 120 days clean credit for many years on a regular basis – factoring and forfaiting limits can be set up in Dubai/London etc., to make the suppliers draw bills of exchange (drafts) for the rollover period of say 180 days or 270 days,which are accepted by the Pakistani importers.The drafts can be factored or forfaited by overseas financiers,with recourse to the importers (at say LIBOR + X points) and with recourse to suppliers (at a lower rate). The Risk is that the Pakistani importer signs the draft and disappears with the money (for the companies with doubtful ethics).In such cases,the importers bank can co-accept the drafts (and block or lien the importer funds)
In the alternate,if the supplier cost of capital is lower, the supplier can “extend longer credit based on SB LC” issued by Pakistani importer (banker) and then “keep rolling it over” – based on “effective rates and arbitrage”
Step 3 – Grey Market Imports
This is the market where “no import duty is paid” and the USD is bought in cash “in advance” in Karachi or HK or Guangzhou. None of the imported items are necessities – denial of which will lead to death of the user.Some portion of the imports are made by baggage imports by air – which is an evil,which can be overlooked.
Speculators take advantage of the squeeze in the interbank and the DEMAND of these grey market imports,to play havoc in the spot market – which hits the headline on the newswire.
The solution is to identify say “500 high value imports by Tariff codes” and BAN Them – and direct only imports vide canalised imports from Pakistan PSUs (called,say SOPSU) with liaison offices in Dubai,HK/Singapore/Guangzhou/Shanghai.The Pakistani importers can identify their supplier and cargo – the chinese supplier will raise the bill on the SOPSU,who will stamp it as accepted – after the Pakistani importer has accepted it – on a back to back basis.The SOPSU will accept it after the Pakistani importer has deposited the PKR in Pakistan,with the SOPSU.
The Chinese importer will take the SOPSU accepted bill to any Chinese bank and get the money. Of course, now the money is “on recprd and liable to Chinese Tax”.However,in Foshan,Chengdu,Dalian,Shanghai,GZOU there are many Chinese financiers,who can discount a draft endorsed by a chinese and PAY IN CASH (with no questions) so long as the drawer has no restriction/objections.
Surely,some Chinese and Pakistanis will start “printing SOPSU acceptances” – SO THE SOLUTION IS TO DIGITISE ALL LIVE ACCEPTANCES and UPLOAD THE SAME,for all discounters to be aware of it (and this is to be printed on the acceptance)
The SOPSU will pay the Chinese banks on deferred payments (after 6/12/18 months) at the pegged rate,on date of acceptance plus interest.
This will take out all the Spot cash USD-PKR demand,in Karachi/HK/Dubai.
Next,it is the Pakistani importers turn to take delivery from the Chinese after receipt from the Chinese banker – and clear it from Pakistani customs
the way he wants (as he is doing today).It is easy to know that the chinese exports recorded from chinese ports do not reach (on paper) the stated ports of import in Africa,West Asia,East Asia and South Asia – so the Pakistani trader can operate the way he wants.
The other way is that the SOPSU can canalise all the logistics in BULK by booking containers with Shipping lines and get much lower freight rates.Some Chinese and other flag carriers with Old Ships and Containers can be used to cut down the freight – where the containers are on the last voyage to the Karachi scrapyard etc. In such cases,the imports will be on record – so the importer will pay only the DEEMED DUTY (bribes) which he is paying currently + freight saved.Since the State has wiped out the hawala and FX punters and launderers, the duty can be lowered to the level of the DEEMED DUTY + freight saved ,as the corruption in Customs is wiped out,FX is controlled and all FX racketeering is wiped out.
Most importantly, since the Pakistani importer has paid the import amount in PKR to the SOPSU on Day 1, the SOPSU will earn interest in PKR,for say 36 months at 20% per annum – which is 30%,and might close out the import financing on a date,wherein the PKR has appreciated (w.r.t the date on Day 1 – as the SOPSU would know the intervention plans of SBOP).For exporter nations,where there is no currency peg w.r.t the USD, the SOPSU will need to hedge the exposures (but the cost will be far below the Treasury gains)
Step 4 – Making Exporters pay for Pakistan Import Duties and FX mismatch (defacto basis)
W.r.t the “indusrial raw materials” legally imported by entities in Pakistan – the imports are “scattered and in small lots” based on “JIT concepts” – and the suppliers are loading “country,price (exchange traded) and credit risk” in the price
These imports should be canalised by a SOPSU whose sovereign status will ensure that there is no country and credit risk in the price.In addition ,since purchases can be be aggregated on a BULK shipment,and ALSO for a LONG TENOR, THE BENEFITS OF STRATEGIC SOURCING WILL ACCRUE. For LME/CBOT/NYMEX/DALIAN/SME products,price formulas and hedges will TAKE OUT THE price risk BUILT INTO THE PRICE – and could reduce the price sharply, in some cases.
If required,the SOPSU can issue a SB LC or a comfort letter,for purchases for 12 months and identify bankers in London,who will provide pre-shipment credit to the exporter of the industrial material (w/o recourse to the SOPSU)
Long term contracts will reduce costs of affreightment.
Then the SOPSU can find bankers to roll over the financing of the purchases,for 12-18 months,with the supplier getting payment on BL SOB.
This will save 15- 25 % in purchase costs and the SOPSU would have deferred the FX outflow with treasury gains,and the BL can be endorsed
to the pakistani user on High seas,or the SOPSU can clear the cargo and sell it to the user
In essence,the cost of the supply chain to Pakistan,is lowered by 20%,and the FX out flow is pushed out by 18 months,and there are treasury gains.The Pakistani user can pay the SOPSU, the way he is paying in the existing mode.
W.r.t the industrial raw materials illegally imported (w/o duty or misdeclaration) by entities in Pakistan – the imports are scattered and in small lots
based on JIT concepts – and the suppliers are loading country and credit risk in the price and THE PAKISTANI IMPORTER IS PAYING ON CASH DOWN MODE (in USD) AS THESE CARGOS ARE MISDECLARED – AND SO,THE CARGO IS INSURED AS X WHEN IT IS Y,AND WITH A VALUE OF A WHEN THE VALUE IS C .
These imports should be canalised by a SOPSU,AS ABOVE, AND THE SAVINGS CAN BE OFFERED TO THE IMPORTER AND HE CAN ASKED TO PAY THE SAME AS IMPORT DUTY.THIS WIPES OUT CUSTOMS CORRUPTION AND ALL HAWALA IN THIS TRADE and ACCRUES REVENUE TO THE STATE. THE IMPORTER WILL PAY THE ENTIRE AMOUNT ON DAY 1 (AS HE IS PAYING TODAY) AND THE SOPSU HAS A ROLL OVER PERIOD OF 18 months,with huge treasury gains and possibility of closing out the trade at an appreciated PKR
Step 5 – Crypto
Pakistani IT experts can tie up with some Chinese engineers to “start a Crypto” for Arabs,Bangladeshis,Lankans and Pakistanis working overseas for their remittances and student fees.This Crypto can be used by DIE HARD PAKISTAN smugglers for payments to suppliers – so that the PKR:USD is not pressured AT ALL FOR GREY MARKET IMPORTS.
The Crypto Algo can be altered,to delete forensic trail,after a certain layer.