Doug Martin: Exceeding Expectations

Doug Martin Fantasy 2012 

The rookie with perhaps the biggest impact in fantasy football this season has been Tampa Bay’s running back Doug Martin. Taken at the end of the first round (31st overall), Martin quickly unseated incumbent LeGarrette Blount. Playing outside of the national spotlight on an up and down Buccaneers’ squad, Martin was able to fly under the radar. That all changed with the Bucs’ blowout victory on national television on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. Martin rushed for – what was then a season high – 135 yards and added 79 yards receiving – also a season high.

The question of Martin’s prospects for the rest of the year now seem ridiculous after his monster 251 yards rushing – a Tampa Bay record – and four touchdowns against the Raiders. Just how good can he be? Are these last two weeks an aberration, or have the Bucs found their running back for the long term? More importantly, the primary fantasy question still remains. Doug Martin: trend or mirage?

In a league where the workhorse running back is a dying breed, Martin has quickly become one. The Boise State rookie has over one hundred more carries than the team’s second leading rusher – Blount. Martin doesn’t always come off the field on third down either. He is no Roger Craig, but he has shown he can catch the ball and has averaged over two catches a game. The bottom line is he is not coming out of the game in critical situations. As he gets more comfortable in the offense he is sure to become more involved in the passing game.

Most offenses only go as far as their quarterback will take them. Coming into this season, Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman was coming off a bad year. He threw 22 interceptions last year and only 16 touchdowns. This year the Kansas State alum is having almost as good a year as his Wildcats alma mater. He has thrown just five interceptions and through eight games has matched last years’ touchdown number. The improved quarterback play will obviously give Martin more scoring chances by making the offense as a whole more effective and will make defenses respect the passing game, opening up running lanes for Martin.

On the down side, the schedule in the second half of the season – while not filled with the National Football League’s elite, does pose some potential problems for Martin. They have to play division rival Atlanta twice and San Diego, Denver, St. Louis and Philadelphia each once. All of those teams are in he top twenty in the NFL as far as yards per game is concerned. All but the Falcons are in the top twenty against the rush.

To make matters worse, one of the team’s best offensive linemen, Carl Nicks, is out for the rest of the season. Yeah he is just a guard you might say, but he is regarded as one of the best guards in the league. His absence didn’t hurt Sunday, but should make running in between the tackles more of an adventure for Martin going forward.

Going forward is what owners should be concerned with. The playoff push is coming. Where does Martin stand coming down the stretch? Can the Bucs offense be trusted enough to make their rookie a weekly starter on a fantasy playoff team? The real question is what do you, as a Martin owner, put more stock in – his and his offense’s rise over the last month of the season, or the potential drawbacks with injuries and a less than favorable schedule? Even with his monster day those are decisions each Martin owner will still have to make.

Twitter: @Gridironexperts
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Gridiron-Experts/265450496744