Julian Edelman: 2014 Fantasy Football Profile and Projection

Over the course of the next few months leading up to the 2014 NFL season, we will post fantasy football profiles with full-season projections for all fantasy-relevant players. That process begins today with Patriots receiver Julian Edelman.

With plenty of turnover in the team’s receiving corps going into the 2013 season, Edelman had a breakout campaign. Shattering previous career highs, Edelman finished with 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns.

In fact, Edelman was so much more involved in the team’s passing offense last season that his 2013 numbers exceeded his previous career stat line (69/714/4) over four NFL seasons combined.

As productive as Edelman was over the course of the 2013 season, he was especially productive in the final eight games including the playoffs. With a minimum of six catches and 64 yards in each of those eight outings, Edelman posted a robust 69/729/5 stat line during that stretch.

That pace would equate to a 138/1,458/10 line over a full 16-game season!

One of the factors that contributed to Edelman’s production was the injuries and/or inconsistency of the team’s other receivers and the absence of tight end Rob Gronkowski for a little more than half of the season.

With Gronkowski in the lineup, Edelman had 35 catches for 364 yards and three scores over seven games. With him out of the lineup, Edelman had 70 receptions for 692 yards and three scores in nine games. On a per-game basis, Edelman had an average of an extra 2.8 receptions and 24.89 yards per game with Gronk sidelined.

That said, Edelman began that dominant end-of-season stretch with Gronk in the lineup and had back-to-back games of nine catches and 101-plus yards in Weeks 12 and 13. (Gronk tore his ACL in Week 14.)

Going into the 2014 season, there will be some uncertainty surrounding Gronkowski’s status for the start of the year as he recovers from offseason ACL surgery, but early indications are that he will be ready. Even so, he has had six surgeries in roughly a year and a half so there are legitimate durability concerns with Gronk.

Even if he doesn’t match last year’s breakout numbers, Edelman will remain Tom Brady‘s most reliable target among wide receivers out of a group that includes Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and others. Better in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, Edelman will be a solid, if not spectacular, borderline WR2/WR3 in standard-scoring formats for 2014.

2014 Fantasy Strength of Schedule

Only the Dolphins wide receivers have an easier fantasy strength of schedule than the Patriots in both standard-scoring formats and point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. In two of their three (fantasy) playoff matchups, they face two defenses that allowed the fifth-most (Chargers) and sixth-most (Jets) fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last year.

- Resources: Fantasy Football WR Strength of Schedule | 2014 Patriots Team Schedule

2014 Stat Projection: 93 receptions, 1,015 yards, 6 touchdowns + 15 rushing yards

- View more 2014 Fantasy Football Profiles and Projections

Source: http://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/blog/2014/06/julian_edelman_2014_fantasy_football_profile_and_projection.html