2014 Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 3 Quarterbacks

Here are my Week 3 fantasy football quarterback rankings:

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (vs. MIN)

There’s no place like home: Brees averaged 9.12 Y/A at home vs. 6.86 Y/A on the road with 27:3 TD-to-INT ratio at home vs. 12:9 TD-to-INT ratio on the road in 2013. With two games on the road and two finishes outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, Brees will bounce back with a big performance at home.

2. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (vs. GB)

After finishing as QB2 in Week 1 (346 pass yards, two pass TDs and one rush TD), Stafford finished outside the top 12, but he has a friendly matchup this week against the Packers. Only three teams have allowed a pair of top-10 fantasy quarterbacks through two weeks and the Packers are one of them.

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3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at DET)

Against an exploitable Jets secondary, Rodgers threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2 and he has a similar type of matchup this week. In other words, Detroit’s defensive strength is their defensive line and their weakness is their secondary. In his past three games over the previous two seasons against the Lions, however, Rodgers’ numbers have been modest: 683 passing yards, three TDs and one INT with 43 rushing yards and a score.

4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (at JAX)

Facing the Jaguars, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to fantasy QBs, Luck & the Colts should get their first win of the season. If there’s any concern for Luck, it’s that the Colts establish an early lead on the Jags, who have been outscored 75-10 in the past six quarters, and we see a lot of the run game. Through two games, however, no quarterback has more fantasy points than Luck (22.79 per game).

5. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (at NYJ)

Cutler has back-to-back top-10 weeks including a four-TD and QB2 performance on Sunday Night Football. Cutler has a great opportunity for another huge week against a Jets secondary that just gave up a league-high 28.64 fantasy points to Rodgers in Week 2.

6. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (at SEA)

Manning has yet to throw for more than 269 yards in a game, but he has thrown three touchdowns with no interceptions and finished as a top-four fantasy quarterback each week. That said, the Seahawks have held nine of their past 11 regular-season opponents to less than 200 passing yards and we’ve seen how well their defense played against the Broncos in the Super Bowl.

7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (vs. TB)

Ryan has historically been much better in the Georgia Dome than on the road. Here are his 2013 home splits: 72.6 completion percentage (62.4% on road), 7.29 yards per attempt (6.59) and 13:3 TD-to-INT ratio (13:14). So far in 2014, it’s been more of the same: 448 yards, three TDs and no INTs for 31.42 fantasy points at home; 231 yards, one TD and three INTs for 10.04 fantasy points on road.

8. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS)

The only quarterback in the leauge with a pair of 300-yard games to start the season, Foles and the Eagles have struggled with their starts. That said, they have finished strong with a pair of second-half double-digit comebacks to improve to 2-0. Foles in the first half of games: 25/45, 7.24 Y/A, zero TDs and two INTs. Foles in the second half of games: 23/37, 8.84 Y/A, three TDs and no INTs.

9. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (vs. PIT)

In his first three NFL seasons, Newton has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback or better each season. In his 2014 debut in Week 2, Newton finished as the QB5 with 281 yards and a touchdown, a two-point conversion and 19 rushing yards.

10. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. DEN)

Generally underrated by most in fantasy football, Wilson is one of four QBs that have finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in both of the season’s first two weeks despite throwing for just 191 and 202 yards, respectively. An efficient passer with the dual threat as a runner, Wilson has a four-to-none TD-to-INT ratio so far this season.

Based on data from PFR, only five QBs have more games with multiple passing TDs since Wilson entered the league in 2012. And only two QBs have more rushing yards than Wilson since 2012.

11. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (vs. OAK)

Far from “terrific,” Brady has finished outside the top-25 fantasy QBs in Weeks 1 and 2. The challenge for Brady to put up QB1 (top-12) numbers this week is that the Patriots are favored by slightly more than two touchdowns, which could lead to many more rush attempts than pass attempts. One good thing from a fantasy perspective is that Belichick and the Patriots rarely take the foot of the accelator in blowouts.

12. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (at BUF)

After a modest start (QB25) against the Cardinals, it would be foolish to expect a huge week from Rivers against the league’s best secondary in Week 2. With 284 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks, however, Rivers finished as a top-three QB in Week 2. Rivers has a middle-of-the-road matchup this week against the Bills so maybe he’ll score the most fantasy points this week.

13. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (vs. STL)

The Rams have held both of the starting quarterbacks they have faced to under 180 passing yards, but those quarterbacks weren’t exactly elite: Matt Cassel and Josh McCown. That said, Romo has yet to finish as a QB2 in 12-team, two-QB leagues as the QB29 and QB25 in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. That’s about to change.

14. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (at ARI)

Coming off a dud four-turnover performance, Kaepernick will face the Cardinals for the fourth time in his career. Through his first three matchups, he has had success — 279.33 Y/G and 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio.

15. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. TEN)

Dalton and the Bengals continue to lose pass-catchers to injury: Marvin Jones before the season, Tyler Eifert in Week 1 and A.J. Green in Week 2. Green may play in Week 3, but with their Week 4 bye, it would make sense that they sit him and play it safe. Dalton threw only 23 passes in Week 2 and I’d expect a heavy dose of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill against the Titans this week.

16. Kirk Cousins, Washington (at PHI)

With Cousins taking over for an injured RG3, he looked impressive against the Jags on Sunday. After all, he threw a 20-yard touchdown pass on his first throw of the game. The Eagles have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season so we could see another solid performance for Cousins.

17. Geno Smith, New York Jets (vs. CHI)

As I noted in my fantasy football waiver-wire column, Smith has averaged more than eight fantasy points per game from his rushing stats alone over his past six games. During that span, he has rushed 48 times for 250 yards and four touchdowns.

18. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (vs. KC)

Off to a slow start (209.5 Y/G and 5.17 Y/A), Tannehill has averaged just 14.83 fantasy points per game, but he gets a favorable matchup against against the Chiefs this week. Dealing with multiple defensive (and offensive) injuries, the Chiefs have allowed two top-six fantasy quarterbacks to begin the season.

19. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CAR)

Coming off a dud performance (217 yards, no TDs and one pick), it won’t get any easier for Big Ben this week against the Panthers.

20. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills (vs. SD)

I’m certainly not suggesting that Manuel should be started, but only four teams have allowed two top-10 fantasy performances to opposing quarterbacks and the Chargers are one of those teams.

More of my Week 3 rankings:

• Week 3 Fantasy Running Back Rankings
• Week 3 Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings
• Week 3 Fantasy Tight End Rankings

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