2014 Fantasy Football Week 1 Start'em, Sit'em

With the new season kicking off last night, Game 1 of 256 is in the books. For help on choosing which players to start or sit for the rest of this week (and future weeks), I will post this weekly Start’em, Sit’em column.

Obviously, it’s impossible for me to know everyone’s roster construction and league settings (except for yours, of course). Keep in mind that the players on this list are players that I like more than usual (start’em side) and ones that I dislike more than usual (sit’em side).

When it comes to deciding which players to sit in your specific situation, please use my Week 1 fantasy football rankings.

As an example, if you have two quarterbacks on your roster (say, Peyton Manning and Colin Kaepernick) and start only one quarterback, you should sit Kaepernick (and start Manning). For someone else that has Kaepernick and say Ben Roethlisberger and that again starts only one quarterback, Kaepernick should start over Big Ben.

The point is Kaepernick could be someone to start or sit depending on your specific roster.

Without further ado, here are some players to consider inserting into your fantasy lineup(s):

QB – Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (at DAL)

With improved and healthier options in the passing game, there should be optimism for the 49ers passing offense although they looked horrible this preseason. Kaepernick completed just 54.5 percent of his 22 pass attempts at a clip of 5.2 yards per attempt with no touchdowns. In one post-game interview, Kaep essentially said he wasn’t worried about the offensive sluggishness in the preseason and that he only cares about the regular season. And if there’s a regular-season matchup that turn things around quickly, it’s this week’s opener against the Cowboys.

Ranked 32nd in total defense last year, the Cowboys defense allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2013 and their defense should be even worse, if that’s possible, this year. Start Kaepernick with confidence this week.

RB – Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (at DAL)

Drafted by most as a low-end RB2, Gore has the potential to produce as a solid RB1 this week against the Cowboys. As bad as they were against QBs last year, the Cowboys were even worse against RBs as no team allowed more fantasy points to the position in 2013. Behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, Gore has rushed for 1,100-plus yards and eight-plus TDs in each of the past three seasons.

RB – Chris Johnson, New York Jets (vs. OAK)

I’m not a huge fan of CJ1K overall, but I like him this week against a bad Raiders defense that allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. The Jets could be playing most of the game with a lead and I think we see a lot of Johnson and Chris Ivory on Sunday.

WR – Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (at ATL)

One of three games for which Vegas has set the over-under above 50 points, there should be plenty of offense in this matchup. I have both Falcons receivers — Julio Jones and Roddy White — in my top eight this week, but I think Colston has a chance to produce as a WR1 this week as well. Colston is coming off a relatively disappointing season, but he was much more effective in the second half of 2013 — 48/601/4 over his final eight regular-season games — and claims that his foot issues that slowed him are behind him.

WR – Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (vs. IND)

With Wes Welker suspended for the first four games of the season, Sanders will see plenty of targets against the Colts on Sunday Night Football. While we shouldn’t bank on a 5/128/2 line like Sanders had in (the first half of) the third preseason game, there’s a lot to like about being one of the top-three options in a Peyton Manning-led offense. In DFS contests, Sanders is a nice value: $4,800 (DraftKings contests) and $6,400 (FanDuel contests).

WR – Eric Decker, New York Jets (vs. OAK)

Only (now) ex-teammate Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant have had the two-year line of 172-2,352-24 that Decker has had the past two seasons. Going from from Peyton to Geno Smith is clearly a downgrade, but Smith played reasonably well last December and should build upon that improvement this year. One positive about the transition is that Decker should see his volume of targets spike as the clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game. Last season, the Raiders allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

TE – Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (at ARI)

While full-season expectations are rather low, Gates is my TE8 this week and a viable starting option in his fantasy-friendly matchup. No team allowed more fantasy points to opposing TEs last season than the Cardinals, who allowed a league-most 17 touchdowns to TEs. In fact, they allowed a TE to score in 11 of 16 games. With one of the best corners in the league (Patrick Peterson) shadowing Keenan Allen on Monday night, there is even more reason for Philip Rivers & Co. to exploit this matchup.

TE – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. TEN)

As Dwayne Bowe serves a one-game suspension to start the season, the Chiefs will start Donnie Avery and Frankie Hammond at wide receiver. Someone other than Jamaal Charles will need to catch passes and Kelce is the most talented pass-catcher on the roster after Charles. Kelce, who was listed in my Week 1 waiver-wire post, has the athleticism to create mismatches as his pair of long preseason touchdowns illustrates.

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Here are some players to consider keeping on your fantasy bench(es):

QB – Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (at TB)

At this point, it’s still unclear whether Newton will play or not on Sunday with the “game-time decision” label. That said, I would prefer to not start him even if he plays with extra padding for his ribs.

With the fractured ribs, it would make sense for him to run a little less (or at least for the team to call fewer designed runs). Plus the ankle injury before the ribs injury kept him limited his ability to develop chemistry with a completely-revamped wide receiver corps.

RB – Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens (vs. CIN)

With Ray Rice out on suspension this week, Pierce gets an opportunity to be the team’s featured back. After a disappointing season for Pierce and the running game as a whole, I think we see a better result this year and perhaps most specifically for Pierce in Gary Kubiak‘s scheme. It could be tough running for Pierce this week, however, as the Bengals allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs last season. Cincinnati allowed a league-low four TDs and just 3.75 yards per carry to RBs in 2013.

RB – Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (at KC)

Sankey was drafted by fantasy owners as a low-end RB2/flex for many teams and while he will eventually top the team’s depth chart, he’s just part of a committee backfield for now. At a minimum, Shonn Greene should get the goal-line carries and Dexter McCluster should get most of the targets in the passing game.

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders (at NYJ)

After a disappointing season with a career-low 3.4 yards per carry, MJD signed with the Raiders in the offseason and has looked reasonably good in the preseason. With some favorable matchups, there will be weeks that Jones-Drew becomes a viable RB2. This isn’t one of those weeks as the strength of the Jets is their defensive line and run defense. The Jets allowed just one 100-yard rusher last season (coincidentally, it was new teammate Marcel Reece) and were the fifth-stingiest defense to fantasy RBs last season.

WR – DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins (at HOU)

While he had more consistency in Chip Kelly’s offense last season, D-Jax has long been a boom-or-bust type of option in fantasy. Considering how poorly RG3 has played in the preseason, the (passing) offense may struggle out of the gates and I’d prefer to keep them (as a unit) on my bench, if possible, as they try to figure things out.

WR – Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (vs. NE)

Despite back-to-back seasons with less than 1,000 yards, I expect Wallace to bounce back in 2014 with Bill Lazor taking over the offense and the team being more creative to get the ball into his hands. Assuming the Patriots use Darrelle Revis to shadow Wallace in Week 1, however, it could be a long day for 60 Minutes. That said, it’s not out of the question that Revis spends a lot of time on Charles Clay, which would be similar to how they used Aqib Talib against him at the end of last season.

WR – Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (at CHI)

Although it’s difficult for rookie receivers to make big impacts, there is no denying Watkins’ electrifying and all-around talent. That said, it’s hard to trust Watkins with E.J. Manuel under center. Watkins has been dealing with an injury (and aggravation of the injury) to his ribs, but he will play on Sunday. If there is a positive, the Bills could be playing from behind, which could lead to more targets. Unfortunately, those targets will come from Manuel.

TE – Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (at STL)

On virtually all of my fantasy rosters, I have one tight end, which means there is not a start-sit decision to be made at this spot. It’s more of a start-or-take-a-goose-egg decision. If Rudolph is your fantasy tight end, I think he has a breakout campaign under his new TE-friendly OC Norv Turner. If you have two tight ends (including one of the two listed above), this is the matchup to consider sitting Rudy. No team allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year than the Rams, who held the position to five fantasy points or less in three-quarters of their games.

TE – Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (vs. NE)

Clay had been dealing with a knee issue, but he practiced fully yesterday so his status for Sunday’s game is not in doubt. It’s possible that the Patriots game plan to specifically limit Clay like they did in Week 15 last year when they put Talib on him and Clay finished with one catch for six yards. My preseason TE13, Clay will be a borderline TE1/TE2 in most weeks, but this week he’s a definite TE2 for me.

As noted earlier, start-sit decisions can and should be answered with my rankings as opposed to using this list of players I’ve highlighted. To see who I would start, here are my Week 1 rankings:

• Week 1 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
• Week 1 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings
• Week 1 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
• Week 1 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings

Looking for an in-season resource that tailors advice to all of your specific teams, check out the My Playbook tool from FantasyPros.

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