2014 Fantasy Football Week 4 Start'em, Sit'em

It’s been an unusual start to the season from the high volume of injuries to elite fantasy options to the slow start for some stud players.

Just one month ago, it felt so safe going with one of the five elite running backs with any of your first five picks. Three weeks into the season and those five backs have combined for only three weekly finishes as a top-24 running back.

Three!

The Adrian Peterson situation is unique and extremely sad and Jamaal Charles has missed an entire game and almost all of another. But out of 11 other opportunities (games), there have been just three start-worthy performances. And no top-five performances yet from the guy that you expected to be your stud at running back.

If you own Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy or Charles, better days are ahead. Assuming Charles plays in Week 4, all four of them should be started this week.

The primary goal of this column is to highlight players that you either would not typically start (or sit) or to highlight players that I like (or dislike) a lot more than usual. The terms “start” and “sit” really depend on your roster, however.

As an example, Washington’s Kirk Cousins is listed below as a “start” and he’s inside my top-10 quarterbacks. But if you have both Drew Brees and Couins on your roster and are allowed to start only one QB, then Cousins is a “sit.”

Ultimately, my Week 4 fantasy football rankings will tell you which players I would start (over others).

With that said, here are some players to consider starting this week:

QB – Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (vs. PHI)

Yet to have a big week this season, Kaepernick’s best performance should be his Week 4 matchup against the Eagles. Not only have the Eagles allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but they have allowed multiple passing touchdowns (eight total) and three top-12 fantasy performances to quarterbacks this season. Last week, the next guy on this list threw for 427 yards against them.

My third-ranked quarterback for the week, Kaepernick should post excellent passing numbers (against a “burnt out” secondary), but his dual-threat abilities really help boost his fantasy value as well. In the past two games, he has rushed 21 times for 108 yards.

QB – Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (vs. NYG)

As noted above, Cousins threw for a career-high 427 yards last week in his first start of the season. While it was his first 400-yard game, Cousins now has three 300-yard games in his five career starts. So far this season, the Giants have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and he’s a excellent bye-week replacement for Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson fantasy owners.

RB – Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers (vs. JAX)

Playing with the lead in last week’s win over the Bills, the Chargers force-fed Brown the ball (36 touches) and they are nearly two-TD favorites this week at home vs. the Jaguars. With Ryan Mathews out a few more weeks and Danny Woodhead done for the season, the game flow should lead to the Bolts giving Brown another massive workload this week.

The Jags have allowed the most rushing yards and most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Through three games, they have allowed five running backs to finish with double-digit fantasy points.

RB – Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (at OAK)

A disappointment for fantasy owners expecting a breakout last year, Miller has been very productive this season with 37 carries for 213 yards, eighth-most in the NFL, as well as 10 receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. Through three games, the Raiders have allowed two 100-yard rushers and 158.7 rushing yards per game (second-most in the NFL).

RB – DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (at BAL)

The matchup is not necessarily favorable as the Ravens rank eighth in the NFL against the run (87.7 YPG allowed), but Williams is likely to be a bellcow rusher in what has long been a platoon. Both Mike Tolbert (IR designated to return) and Jonathan Stewart won’t be active and the Cam Newton (ribs) has only six carries in the past two games. A player that almost never appears on this list, at least the “start’em” side, Williams should get close to 20 touches and is a solid RB2 for Week 4.

WR – Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles (at SF)

Coming off a monster 8/154/1 performance, Maclin has now scored in three consecutive games with a minimum of 10 targets in each of those contests. Along with Megatron, Maclin is one of just two receivers playing in Week 4 with double-digit targets in all three games this season. (Cleveland’s Andrew Hawkins, who’s on bye, is the only other receiver with 10-plus in each game.)

The 49ers are tougher against the run than they are against the pass and they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season.

WR – Victor Cruz, New York Giants (at WAS)

It’s difficult to run the ball against Washington, who owns the league’s third-ranked run defense, but the secondary is the defense’s weakest unit and it got even worse after losing DeAngelo Hall (Achilles). Through three games, Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.

As much as the Giants passing offense had struggled in the preseason and Week 1, they have looked much better in their past two games. In those games, Cruz has lines of 5/60 and 5/107/1. Cruz is inside my top 10 fantasy wide receivers this week and we could be in store for some prime-time salsa dancing tonight.

WR – Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (at NYJ)

If there’s a weak link to Rex Ryan’s defense, it’s the secondary. In the past two weeks facing talented NFC North passing offenses, they have allowed wide receiver stat lines of 9/209/1 to Jordy Nelson and 8/105 plus 13 rush yards to Alshon Jeffery in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. Only two teams — Buccaneers and 49ers — have allowed more fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year.

As they face another talented NFC North passing offense, the Jets will certainly focus on limiting the potential damage by Calvin Johnson (as do all opposing defenses every week). Yet to score his first touchdown as a Lion, Tate has been extremely consistent with at least five catches and 50 yards in all three of his games. Fantasy owners should feel safe with a 5/50 line as the floor with upside for much more with this week’s favorable matchup.

WR – Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at SD)

Just outside of my top-24 wide receivers (No. 25), Robinson may not be a start for those in 12-team leagues that start two at the position, but he’s a solid WR3/flex option. The transition to the Blake Bortles era provides a spark and boost to the entire offense. In his past two games, however, ARob has had at least 75 yards and led the team in that category in each of the past two weeks. Robinson has seen his targets increase each week (three to six to 10) and he got the start opposite Cecil Shorts last week. As noted earlier, the Jags are nearly 14-point ‘dogs, which could lead to a lot of pass attempts.

TE – Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (at IND)

It’s hard to trust any of the team’s wide receivers although one of these weeks we are going to see a monster game from the high-upside Justin Hunter. That said, Walker has been extremely consistent as the team’s leader in targets (26), receptions (17), yards (233) and touchdowns (two). Through three weeks, the Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Walker’s my third-ranked tight end for the week.

TE – Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (vs. JAX)

Following up his three-TD performance against the Seahawks, Gates had a disappointing 1/8/0 line on one target last week. Set up nicely for a bounce-back week, Gates faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. In fact, they have allowed four different tight ends to finish as a top-six fantasy TE in their three games.

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Here are some players to consider keeping on your fantasy bench(es):

QB – Tom Brady, New England Patriots (at KC)

Through three weeks, Brady has yet to finish any better than QB25. That’s hard to believe but sadly true for his fantasy owners. Not only has he thrown for less than 250 yards every week, but he has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game. A big reason is the play of the offensive line and Brady has completed just one of 13 throws of 20-plus yards.

Even though six teams are on bye this week, I’d prefer to keep Brady on my bench, if possible. One positive is that Rob Gronkowski continues to work back into shape and he played nearly 60 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 3 after just 44.2 and 41.8 percent in Weeks 1 and 2.

RB – Joique Bell, Detroit Lions (at NYJ)

In the preseason, Bell was one of my favorite mid-round running back targets. Although he has more than 50 catches in each of the previous two seasons, his reception totals have been one, six and zero in each of the past three weeks. Meanwhile, teammate Reggie Bush has six, two and six receptions in the past three games.

Depending on Bell’s usage this week in the passing game, he could be better left on your bench. The Jets have allowed the fewest rushing yards (55.0 YPG) and fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. In their past two games, they have limited (expected) stud running backs Eddie Lacy (13/43) and Matt Forte (13/33) to modest production on the ground.

RB – Chris Johnson, New York Jets (vs. DET)

The Jets have given CJ1K (41 touches) and Chris Ivory (38) roughly an equal workload this season, but Ivory has clearly been the much more productive back. Ivory has averaged 5.8 YPC to Johnson’s 3.5 and could see a larger share of the workload going forward based on recent comments from Rex Ryan.

While the Jets are tough against the run, the Lions are nearly as stingy with the league’s second-ranked run defense that allows just 63.7 YPG and 2.8 YPC.

WR – Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (vs. CAR)

The Dennis Pitta hip injury is a big blow to the Ravens offense and ultimately I think that helps Smith see more targets. Through the first three weeks, however, Torrey has clearly been the second-best Smith among the team’s (fantasy) receivers to Steve Sr. Getting a season-high eight targets last week is a step in the right direction, but he finished with a 2/25 line while the other Smith finished with a 5/101 line. Torrey’s best performance this year (3/50 on seven targets in Week 1) landed him as the WR54 that week.

This week’s matchup isn’t favorable — the Panthers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to WRs — and I’d prefer to see a more productive outing from him before inserting him back into my starting lineup.

WR – Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans (at IND)

Only Antonio Brown (16) and Demaryius Thomas (14) had more games with 5/50 last season than Wright (13). Wright has never been much of a threat to score a lot of touchdowns, but he compensated for a high level of catches, yards and consistency last year. Through three games, Wright has yet to exceed 46 yards in a game and he’s on pace for just 645 yards this season.

WR – Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (at HOU)

Rookie wide receivers tend to be inconsistent on a weekly basis and despite possessing all of the physical tools to become an elite wide receiver, we have seen that inconsistency with Watkins: 3/31/0, 8/117/1, 2/19/0. That means that Watkins has finished as the WR72, WR4 and WR85 in his three games. Exacerbating the inconsistency is the team’s poor quarterback play (E.J. Manuel).

TE – Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (at OAK)

Clay continues to battle a knee injury that has been partly attributable to his slow start this season. Through three games, Clay has 12 catches for just 79 yards (26.3/game) and no touchdowns. Assuming he plays, Clay’s matchup isn’t terribly favorable as the Raiders have yet to allow more than 50 yards to any tight end this season.

To see who I would start based on your team, please consult with my Week 4 rankings:

• Week 4 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
• Week 4 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings
• Week 4 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
• Week 4 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings

Looking for an in-season resource that tailors advice to all of your specific teams, check out the My Playbook tool from FantasyPros.

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