Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections: Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers

T minus six hours! The new 2014 NFL season is almost here. Finally, right?!?!

In the season opener, we will see five of the first 28 players selected, on average, based on fantasy football ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.

Not only does tonight’s matchup give us several elite fantasy options, it also a strength-on-strength matchup between one of the league’s most-explosive offenses facing the league’s stingiest defense.

A couple of years ago, we saw officiating (Fail Mary) determine the outcome of this game. It will be interesting to see how the officiating — quantity of penalties — carries over from the preseason and impacts tonight’s game.

Below are my projections for tonight’s Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks season opener.

While I obviously realize that players can’t score fractional touchdowns or throw fractional interceptions, the projections below use tenths for TD and INT projections as an indication of how probable they will score a touchdown (or throw an interception).

Quarterbacks:

-> Russell Wilson, Seahawks: (Passing) 19/29, 233 Yards, 1.9 TDs, 0.8 INTs; (Rushing) 32 Yards, 0.2 TDs — FP: 20.52

Finishing as the QB9 last season, Wilson could be in store for even better production in 2014 if his preseason is any indication. Wilson completed 76.9 percent of his passes at 9.23 yards per attempt with five TDs (three rushing, two passing) and no INTs.

-> Aaron Rodgers, Packers: (Passing) 24/37, 274 Yards, 2.0 TDs, 0.5 INTs; (Rushing) 12 Yards, 0.1 TDs — FP: 20.26

It’s an uninspiring matchup for Rodgers as the Seahawks allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs last season and no more than 18 fantasy points to any QB in 2013. In fact, they have allowed just one 200-yard passer (barely, 207 yards) in their last nine regular-season games. That said, sitting Rodgers should not be an option, but I still have him projected to be a top-10 fantasy QB this week.

Running Backs:

-> Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: (Rushing) 21/101/0.8; (Receiving) 2/16/0.2 — FP: 17.7

Considering the Seahawks have moved some 2015 money forward to this season after his short-lived holdout, Lynch will remain the team’s workhorse with or without second-year back Christine Michael. Especially with Michael (hamstring) ruled out for tonight’s game, we should see a heavy dose of Beast Mode.

-> Eddie Lacy, Packers: (Rushing) 18/74/0.6; (Receiving) 3/22/0.1 — FP: 13.8

From Week 5 to 17 last year, only LeSean McCoy rushed for more yards than Lacy. With a healthy Rodgers, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lacy finished as fantasy’s top-scoring fantasy RB (although he’s my fifth-ranked player overall). Tonight’s matchup isn’t great for Lacy, but he should still produce (low-end) RB1 numbers. No running back had more 20-carry games than Lacy last year, and the team’s more up-tempo offense could mean he sees more snaps.

-> Robert Turbin, Seahawks: (Rushing) 4/16/0.0; (Receiving) 1/6/0.0 — FP: 2.2
-> James Starks, Packers: (Rushing) 4/18/0.0; (Receiving) None — FP: 1.8
-> DuJuan Harris, Packers: (Rushing) 1/4/0.0; (Receiving) 1/6/0.0 — FP: 1.0
-> John Kuhn, Packers: (Rushing) 1/2/0.0; (Receiving) 1/5/0.0 — FP: 0.7

Wide Receivers:

-> Jordy Nelson, Packers: 5 Rec., 70 Yards, 0.5 TDs — FP: 10.0

The matchup is a difficult one, but the good news is that the Seahawks don’t use Richard Sherman to shadow the opposing team’s No. 1 receiver. In the team’s 19 games (regular season and playoffs) last year, they allowed an average of 10.2 fantasy points to their opponent’s top-producing fantasy wideout.

-> Randall Cobb, Packers: 5 Rec., 65 Yards, 0.4 TDs; (Rushing) 6 Yards — FP: 9.5

Cobb missed all but six regular-season games last year, but he set a career high in YFS/G (85.17), but he had a quiet preseason (three catches for 34 yards) and offseason. It wouldn’t surprise me if he led the team in targets tonight.

-> Percy Harvin, Seahawks: 4 Rec., 53 Yards, 0.4 TDs; (Rushing) 8 Yards, 0.1 TDs — FP: 9.1

Durability has been a concern with Harvin, who missed almost all of last season, but he is a dangerous playmaker when he’s on the field.

-> Doug Baldwin, Seahawks: 5 Rec., 61 Yards, 0.3 TDs — FP: 7.9

Only only receiver, Antonio Brown (seven games), had more games with 70 to 99 receiving yards than Baldwin (six) last season. (He was tied with four others that did so six times as well.) I realize that stat is a strange stat to point out, but what I was trying to illustrate is Baldwin has been a solid fantasy WR with only modest upside. I expect him to have a Baldwin-esque type of game tonight.

-> Jermaine Kearse, Seahawks: 3 Rec., 46 Yards, 0.4 TDs — FP: 7.0
-> Jarrett Boykin, Packers: 3 Rec., 38 Yards, 0.3 TDs — FP: 5.6
-> Davante Adams, Packers: 2 Rec., 24 Yards, 0.2 TDs — FP: 3.6
-> Paul Richardson, Seahawks: 1 Rec., 16 Yards, 0.1 TDs — FP: 2.2

Tight Ends:

-> Richard Rodgers, Packers: 3 Rec., 34 Yards, 0.3 TDs — FP: 5.2
-> Zach Miller, Seahawks: 2 Rec., 23 Yards, 0.4 TDs — FP: 4.7
-> Luke Willson, Seahawks: 1 Rec., 12 Yards, 0.1 TD — FP: 1.8
-> Andrew Quarless, Packers: 1 Rec., 10 Yards, 0.1 TD — FP: 1.6

For all of our Week 1 projections, visit our main fantasy football projections section of our site.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Week 1 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• Week 1 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• Week 1 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• Week 1 Fantasy Football TE Rankings

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