Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

With one of 256 regular-season games already in the books, the 2014 NFL season gets going in earnest today with 13 more games. And the always great Monday Night Football Week 1 double-header mañana.

As the last (and perhaps) least of the group of “handicappers,” here are my Week 1 NFL picks against the spread (ATS):

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs — Under 44.0 (3 units)

If I weren’t so damn lazy, I’d check to confirm my hunch that a significant majority of Week 1 games have historically fallen on the under side of the over-under line. At least in this matchup, there are some past trends to point to that outcome. The under has won six of the past seven Week 1 games for the Titans and the Chiefs were under in their past four games in September. In fact, 22 of the past 30 Chiefs games have been under.

While I have faith in Ken Whisenhunt‘s ability to develop Jake Locker and turn around this offense, it may not happen over night. The Chiefs have been able to thrive on creating turnovers and assuming their defense doesn’t score on a pick-six, that could help keep the scoring to a minimum.

This week, the Chiefs will be without starting wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, which means their starting duo is Donnie Avery and Frankie Hammond. Scared? You should be … of the over, anyways. Obviously, Jamaal Charles is as dynamic as any running back in the league and Travis Kelce is a nice upside (breakout) play in fantasy, but I can see this game being a 20-17 (or less) type of game.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Under 41.5 (2 units)

Continuing with my theme of slow offensive starts, I’m going the under here as well. The Browns defense will be solid this year, but their Josh Gordon-less (at least, for this week) offense is going to struggle. Another thing that I think could lead to a slow’ish start for the unit is how the whole quarterback battle was handled in the preseason. Alternating QBs is NEVER a good idea.

I guess I’m not so lazy after all. Here are some stats to support going with the under: The under has won in five of the past six head-to-head matchups between these two teams. In addition, the Browns have gone under in five of their past six games in September and eight of their past 11 Week 1 matchups.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (2 units)

If you haven’t read my Week 1 NFL power rankings, you won’t know what my VERY bold prediction is for the Jaguars this season. (Wait, why didn’t you read it?! I spent a lot of time putting together those rather useless power rankings. Read it, dammit!) Either way, I like the Jags more than virtually anyone, anywhere, this season and think they won’t be nearly as bad as everyone else thinks.

Specifically, I think their defense will be better than most expect and I wouldn’t be surprised if they keep this game within single-digits. The Jags were outscored by a margin of 86-264 as his era got off to an 0-8 start, but Gus Bradley got this team to play much better football in the second half as they closed the year with a 4-4 record. One of the common things I’ve read about national NFL reporters visiting the Jaguars is how impressed they are with Bradley.

This is as much a hunch as anything — and I think the Jags lose today (by less than 10) — but they will be the surprise team of 2014. (And, yes, I actually put some real hard-earned pennies where my mouth is.)

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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• 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings
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• 2014 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

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