Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Yanotchko

Welcome back to another great year of football, and I, for one, cannot wait to get the games started on Sunday.

Here are my Week 1 ATS picks:

New Orleans Saints -3.5 over Atlanta Falcons (2 units)

I love the Saints in this matchup, as they certainly have had the Falcons number over the past few years. The Saints come into this game going 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games when playing Atlanta. Also, I just love the matchup of Jimmy Graham against any of the Falcons defensive players, and also the Falcons can be exploited on the ground as they were the 31st-ranked rushing defense last year giving up 135 yards per game.

I think the Falcons did not do enough to upgrade their defense in the offseason, and they are just a bad all-around matchup for the Saints. I will gladly give the points here.

New England Patriots -4.5 over Miami Dolphins (3 units)

The Patriots have been the class of the AFC East, and they will look to start the season off on the right foot yet again, as they are 11-1 on opening day during Tom Brady‘s tenure. The Dolphins certainly were the team with the most distractions last year, as they had to deal with the Jonathan Martin hazing incident. This year, the Dolphins have an entirely new offensive line, which does not bode well for the much-improved New England defense. The Patriots have history on their side, as they have gone 5-3 against the number in their last eight when playing Miami.

I also love the matchup of the Patriots running backs going up against a Miami defense that yielded 124 yards a game and 4.1 yards per carry last year. I love the new-look Pats defense with the addition of Revis Island, and also for Brady to fire on all cylinders with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup.

Indianapolis Colts +8 over Denver Broncos (1 unit)

In one of the marquee matchups of Week 1, we will be treated to a QB duel of Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning, but the only question is how may points will they rack up. The Broncos still have tons of offensive firepower, although they will be without Wes Welker for four games.

The Colts have done well against the Broncos as they have gone 4-0 against the spread in their most recent matchups. The Colts also have a high-powered offense, and of course Andrew Luck has engineered many second-half comebacks. I believe he can find a way to take advantage of the Broncos 27th-ranked passing defense from a year ago that gave up 254 yards a game and 29 TDs. I am not certain that the Colts will win this game, but I do know they can and will cover the 8.

As great as Denver is, they are not eight points better than Indy.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

Also, check out some of our Fantasy Football Resources:

• 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings
• 2014 Fantasy Football Player Projections
• 2014 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

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