Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

Here are my Week 2 picks against the spread:

Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 over Atlanta Falcons (2 units)

With a franchise-record 448 passing yards from Matt Ryan, the Falcons went toe to toe with the Saints’ high-powered offense and escaped with an overtime win. Perhaps I’m a glass-half-empty guy, but some times those type of win73 can be emotionally draining and lead to a flat performance in their next outing.

Ryan has historically been much better in the Georgia Dome than he has on the road. Here are his 2013 road splits: 62.4 completion percentage (72.6% at home), 6.59 yards per attempt (7.29 Y/A) and 13:14 TD-to-INT ratio (13:3). Not only has Ryan struggled on the road, but Jake Matthews is out on Sunday and it will be up to Gabe Carimi to protect Ryan’s blind side. In addition, the Bengals have one of the NFL’s best all-around defenses as they were the only team in the league to rank in the top five against both the run and pass in 2013.

In their past nine home games, the Bengals are 8-1 against the spread. Expect the Bengals to hit Ryan early and often as his road struggles continue and lay the points.

Miami Dolphins pick’em over Buffalo Bills (2 units)

An unplanned theme this week (apparently) is going against overtime-winning teams as the Bills pulled off a surprising upset on the road in Soldier Field. E.J. Manuel played well in that game — 16/22 passing for 173 yards and two scores including a rushing touchdown. While he threw an interception, he played efficiently and I’m not sure that I trust his ability to do that consistently.

Last year, the Bills led the NFL in rush attempts by a large margin (546 to 509) over the Seahawks, but the Dolphins have a new-found ground attack as they ran the ball a league-high 38 times in Week 1 and no running back had more yards than Knowshon Moreno. But Lamar Miller also ran the ball well (5.4 yards per carry).

Both teams should be able to run the ball well this week and this game could come down to a costly turnover; my money is on Manuel making it.

Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Washington Redskins (3 units)

If you watched only one half of the Jaguars-Eagles game, your opinion would vary greatly depending on which half it was. The Jags jumped out to a 17-0 lead on two Chad Henne-to-Allen Hurns scores and they forced Nick Foles to turn the ball over three times in the first half. Then, Chip Kelly must have given the world’s greatest half-time speech as the Eagles rattled off 34 unanswered points to win by 17.

While they may not jump out to a large early lead, this game should be closer throughout the contest. The Jags will want to run the ball with Toby Gerhart, who had 20 touches (18 carries and two receptions) last week but was relatively ineffective in part to an ankle injury. I think we see a better week from Gerhart against a Washington defense that allowed 103 rushing yards to Arian Foster last week.

I’m not sure that the Jags will pull off the “upset,” but I expect this game to be close and the Jags to cover.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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