Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

Here are my Week 3 picks against the spread:

New Orleans Saints -10.5 over Minnesota Vikings (3 units)

If there’s one thing I dislike, it’s giving double-digit points. That said, I think the Saints come out firing on all cylinders with their backs against the proverbial wall after an 0-2 start. The difference between Drew Brees at home and on the road is truly remarkable. Last year’s home (vs. road) splits for Brees: 73.6 completion percentage (64.0%), 9.12 Y/A (6.86) and 27:3 TD-to-INT ratio (12:9).

Through two games, the Saints defense has been awful: 31.5 points per game and 446.0 yards per game allowed, bottom three in both metrics. That said, their defense is not anywhere near as bad as what we’ve seen so far and Matt Cassel is coming off a four-interception performance.

With Brees & Co. scoring in bunches and an opportunistic defensive performance today, I expect the Saints to win this one by 20 today.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 over Tennessee Titans (3 units)

Few teams are as balanced as the Bengals on both sides of the ball. With a powerful ground game led by Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, the Bengals also have one of the league’s most talented receivers in A.J. Green, who is expected to play after last week’s toe injury. While Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense generally struggles away from the Georgia Dome, the Bengals were a large part of slowing down an offense that has looked explosive in their other two (home) games.

Even though the Bengals rank in the bottom six in pass defense, it’s because their opponents have a league-high 53.0 attempts per game against them and they have yielded only 5.10 Y/A this season. The Titans offense (sans Delanie Walker) struggled last week against a bad Cowboys defense and I expect the Bengals defense to bring out Jake Locker‘s inconsistencies today.

In addition, the Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 home games so I’ll lay the touchdown here.

Buffalo Bills vs. San Diego Chargers — Under 45.5 (2 units)

Coming off a tremendous win against the defending champs, the Chargers head to the east coast for an early start today. As impressive as Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates were on their three touchdown connections, I think there is a bit of a letdown and sluggishness coming off last week’s win and with the early start.

On the other hand, the Bills are a surprise 2-0 team yet I’m not a believer in E.J. Manuel. Through two weeks, the Bills are averaging 26.0 points per game, seventh-best in the NFL, despite ranking in the bottom half in yards per game (337.5).

The under is 4-0 in San Diego’s last four road games and in five of their past seven games overall.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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