Fantasy Football Week 5: Underrated Players in PPR Leagues

Hello all, welcome to Week 5! As this is my first article for EDSFootball.com (for which I am very excited!), allow me introduce myself. My name is Ryan and like many of you, I am a diehard fantasy football player. I have been playing for several years and have had my share of success. I have had an interest in writing a fantasy article for some time now, and finally decided to take the plunge. I have followed Kevin and the EDS team for a few years and have great respect for their insight and success. Kevin Hanson was kind enough to give me an opportunity and I am thrilled to contribute to one of the best sites for fantasy advice.

As for my article, I will be writing a weekly piece on under-rated and under-ranked players. I aim to identify a few players at each position that I believe will outperform their weekly ranking, relative to the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking). Additionally, I will list a handful of players ranked higher than the under-rated player, for which I would start the player over. One of the most important aspects to fantasy success is maximizing your starting lineup each week. A key to that is identifying when to make the difficult decision of benching a regular starter for a bench player. I will primarily focus on lower end players that have a chance to have a big week, but occasionally a stud will be mixed in, if I feel they are severely under-ranked.

I am almost exclusively a PPR player, so this article will be focused on that particular scoring format.
Hopefully this will help you make a few of those difficult decisions or identify players to plug in for one week at a weak position. Enjoy!

Quarterbacks

Mike Glennon – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FantasyPros ECR – 22

Glennon may not have been overly efficient in his first start of the season, but he certainly produced from a fantasy perspective. This week, Glennon gets a New Orleans team that has been awful against the pass. They have given up the 7th-most points to QBs and rank 30th in pass defense efficiency. New Orleans is going to come out fighting at home, given their 1-3 start. I expect them to be firing on all cylinders offensively, forcing the Bucs to air it out early and often. It may not be pretty to watch, but expect Glennon to produce from a fantasy perspective once again this week.

Consider starting him over:
Tom Brady – ECR 18
Joe Flacco – ECR 17
Andy Dalton – ECR 16

Eli Manning – New York Giants
FantasyPros ECR – 13

Eli finally got things rolling in the demolition of Washington last Thursday. While it is hard to feel great about them after only one strong week, especially given the ineptitude from the first three weeks, it seems like they are starting to click offensively under a new OC. They also get a pretty poor Atlanta defense this week with a few extra days to prepare. Atlanta has been surprisingly decent from a fantasy points allowed perspective, but their efficiency against the pass is very poor. With Atlanta’s powerful offense, this game has shootout potential. I expect Eli to expose the Atlanta pass D and produce mid-QB 1 numbers this week.

Consider starting him over:
Colin Kaepernick ECR – 12
Nick Foles ECR – 11 (I admit, this one scares me a little, but that offensive line is awful right now and I expect the Rams pass rush to cause issues.)

Running Backs

Justin Forsett – Baltimore Ravens
FantasyPros ECR – 19

The Colts run defense is bad – the only reason their Fantasy Points Against is in the middle of the pack is due to the fact other teams have had to play catch up and abandon the run. I don’t think the Ravens will get forced into that mode. The Ravens have historically been a clock-control team, leaning on the run and a strong defense. I expect a heavy dose of the run game, mixing in all three backs, but Forsett will lead the way. As insurance, in the event this game does turn into a high-scoring affair, Forsett is the passing down back and the Colts rank 31st in efficiency against RBs out of the backfield.

Consider starting him over:
Alfred Morris ECR – 18
Shane Vereen ECR – 16
Doug Martin ECR – 13

Bishop Sankey – Tennessee Titans
FantasyPros ECR – 33

We all expected Sankey to start slow and his ADP was unwarranted. But we also knew he was the most talented back and it was only a matter of time before he took over. Ken Whisenhunt has publicly stated Sankey would not see more carries until his footwork improved. Well, this week Whisenhunt went on record and praised Sankey for improved footwork. Given his performance over the last two weeks – 16 carries, three catches, 155 total yards and a TD, I expect Sankey to get an increased workload. An increased workload combined with a matchup against the Browns (2nd-most FPA’s against RBs and bottom 5 in efficiency against the run) could mean a breakout performance from the rookie.

Arian Foster – Houston Texans
FantasyPros ECR – 14

I will preface this whole paragraph around one thing – this is assuming Foster is near 100 percent healthy for this week’s game. He did not have a setback last week but clearly he was not effective. If he gets near 100 percent by game time, he is a top-five back this week. The Cowboys have surprised us all with their defense so far this season, and while they are not as bad as we expected, they still are suspect. They have yet to face a strong rushing team other than the Niners in Week 1, in which they gave up 127 yards and a TD. Again, if Foster is healthy, I expect him to expose the Dallas D for a big game.

Consider starting him over:
Anyone ranked 9 – 13: Andre Ellington, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Matt Asiata, Doug Martin

Wide Receivers

Golden Tate – Detroit Lions
FantasyPros ECR – 37

This game adds an interesting twist as the Bills defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is the Lions former head coach. The Bills have a pretty strong run defense this year, but their pass D isn’t at the same level. Any Lions fan (yes, sadly I am included in that group) knows how bad the Lions secondary was under Schwartz, and it looks like the Bills are carrying on that tradition. The Bills have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Even better, they rank 28th in efficiency at defending WR2’s. Given Calvin Johnson’s bad ankle and the Lions intimate knowledge of Schwartz’s schemes, I expect a big day from Tate.

Consider starting him over:
Brian Quick ECR – 33
Cordarelle Patterson ECR – 32
Reggie Wayne ECR – 31
Sammy Watkins ECR – 30

Markus Wheaton – Pittsburgh Steelers
FantasyPros ECR – 38

Wheaton gets the Jags this week, the 2nd-worst team against the pass in terms of FPA. They are also in the bottom third against WR2’s. The Steelers are no longer a ground-and-pound team, employing a stronger focus on the short passing game and a hurry-up offense. Wheaton has been involved from Week 1 and continues to get his looks. Given his straight-line speed, he is bound to break a big one sometime soon. This week is as good a chance as any.

Consider starting him over:
Eric Decker ECR – 36
Brian Quick ECR – 33
Sammy Watkins ECR – 30

Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints
FantasyPros ECR – 35

Without question, the Saints have been one of the most surprising and disappointing teams in the NFL. They have struggled to click on all ends and their offense has looked surprisingly lackadaisical. Well, with their backs against the wall due to a 1-3 start and a home game against the Bucs, expect fireworks from the Saints this week. The Bucs really struggle against the pass and Colston should be the beneficiary of that.

Consider starting him over:
Sammy Watkins ECR – 30
Reggie Wayne ECR – 31
Pierre Garcon ECR – 27
Julian Edelman ECR – 22

Tight Ends

Clay Harbor – Jacksonville Jaguars
FantasyPros ECR – 24

I know, recommend a backup TE for one of the worst teams in the league? I understand if you’re skeptical, I probably would be too. But there is evidence to back it up. First, Blake Bortles is now the starter and rookie QBs historically look for their TEs early and often. In Harbor’s first game back from injury, he secured all eight of his targets, which led the team. The Steelers give up the 6th-most points to TEs and that will likely continue given the injuries to their LB unit. There is no reason to believe the Jags won’t be in comeback mode early, especially given how the Steelers lost last week. With a lot of passing volume expected, I like Harbor’s chances of flirting with TE1 territory this week.

Consider starting him over:
Coby Fleener ECR – 23
Dwayne Allen ECR – 19
Jason Witten ECR – 15

Owen Daniels – Baltimore Ravens
FantasyPros ECR – 13

Daniels won’t blow anyone away with athleticism, but he is precise in his route running and has an outstanding knowledge of Kubiak’s system. With Dennis Pitta down for the season, Daniels will continue to operate as the starting TE, which has historically been a very productive position in Kubiak’s offense. While I expect Baltimore to try and keep the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands, they will still need to score points to have a shot at winning. Kubiak loves throwing to TEs in the red zone, and the Colts are REALLY bad against TEs. 6-8 catches for around 75 yards and a TD (or two) is not out of the question.

Consider starting him over:
Heath Miller ECR – 11
Travis Kelce ECR – 9

[Editor's note: The ECR used was as of time the article was written. Typically, ECRs will fluctuate throughout the week in response to news and injuries.]