Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

Not to pat myself on the back, but it’s been an impressive four-week run as I’ve gone 11-2 versus the spread during that span.

Looking to build upon my recent success, here are my Week 7 picks against the spread:

Buffalo Bills -5.5 over Minnesota Vikings (3 units)

The Vikings have struggled to get much going offensively with 10 or fewer points in four of their past five games. Owning the league’s top-ranked run defense, the Bills have allowed just 67.5 yards per game on the ground and a league-low 2.8 yards per carry this season. Along with the Chiefs, they are one of just two teams to not allow a rushing touchdown this season.

While their pass defense isn’t as strong as their run defense, their pass rush is one of the best in the league. Only the Lions and Jets (20.0 each) have more sacks than the Bills (19.0) this season. Expected inability to run the ball combined with a ferocious pass rush is usually not a recipe that leads to success for a rookie quarterback.

Over the past three seasons, the Bills are 8-5 ATS as a favorite and 11-6 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Vikes are only 8-12 ATS in that same span.

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Indianapolis Colts -3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (3 units)

These two teams appear to be heading in different directions. The Colts have won four straight after starting 0-2 while the Bengals have not won (loss and tie) since starting 3-0.

While the Bengals will be without A.J. Green again, they should be able to run the ball well behind the tandem of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. But will they be able to keep up with Andrew Luck and the high-powered Colts offense?

Luck leads the NFL with 1,987 passing yards and 17 touchdowns and the Colts rank first in the league in scoring offense (31.5 PPG) and total offense (444.0 YPG). Over their past two games, the Bengals have surrendered 80 total points.

The Colts are 4-1 ATS this season as favorites and 14-5 ATS as favorites in Luck’s three seasons. The Bengals are much better at home ATS as they are a mediocre 9-9 ATS on the road over the past three seasons.

Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Chicago Bears (2 units)

While past results may not guarantee future returns, those betting against Jay Cutler have been met with success. As a home favorite, Cutler’s record against the spread is only 11-27. Over the past three seasons, the Bears are just 4-13 ATS at home while the Dolphins are 12-9 ATS on the road.

The Dolphins currently rank eighth in the NFL in pass defense (221.6 YPG allowed) and are even better on a per-attempt basis (6.1 Y/A, third-lowest in NFL).

I think this game stays close and perhaps the half-point comes into play, but I’m going with the favorable trends here.

New York Giants +6.5 over Dallas Cowboys (1 unit)

As a Cowboys fan, I hope I’m wrong (or that I’m right but the Cowboys win by only six or less points), but I worry a little bit about the Cowboys drinking the Kool-Aid and coming out a bit flat. On the other hand, the Eagles embarrassed the Giants 27-0 on primetime last week and I think we see a better performance from the G-Men.

Based on some ATS trends, the Cowboys have covered only six of their past 26 games as a home favorite and are only 2-14 ATS in their past 16 games as a favorite following a win.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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