Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

Here are my Week 10 picks against the spread:

Detroit Lions -3 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

Carrying a three-game winning streak into today’s game, the Dolphins have been playing really well on defense as they have held their opponents to only 27 points over their past three games. That said, there are a number of reasons I like the Lions here this week.

First of all, Detroit is coming off their bye and they are getting back Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush from injury. Brent Grimes is one of the better cornerbacks in the league, but a healthy Megatron can take over a game. No player in the history in the NFL has more 200-yard games than Calvin.

While he has been out, Golden Tate really stepped up. In the five games that Megatron was either out or acted as a decoy, Tate racked up 39 catches for 599 yards and had four 100-yard games.

And as well as Miami’s defense has played, the Lions rank first in the NFL in both scoring and total defense. Both defenses should play well, but I like Detroit’s offensive firepower to make more plays in this one and I’ll give the three.

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Kansas City Chiefs -1 over Buffalo Bills (2 units)

Kansas City has been on a tear both straight up and against the spread. While the Chiefs have won five of their past six games straight up, they have covered their past seven contests in a row.

The Chiefs have been especially impressive on the road against the spread. In fact, they have lost only one of their past 13 road games ATS. A huge reason for that success is their ability to run the ball and Alex Smith‘s ability to protect the football. Of course, Smith doesn’t challenge defenses down the field and no Chiefs receiver has a touchdown, but you don’t have to worry about him giving the opposing offense a short field. Over his past 50 games, Smith has posted a record of 36-13-1 ATS.

Although the Bills have one of the league’s best defenses, the Chiefs currently rank second in the NFL in scoring defense. Both teams get after the quarterback as the Bills and Chiefs have 28 and 27 sacks, respectively, (and only the Vikings have more), but I can see Kyle Orton being forced into making a costly turnover.

With the spread dropping to one point, I like the fact the the Chiefs just have to win straight up to not lose as a one-point win would be a push.

Green Bay Packers -7.5 over Chicago Bears (2 units)

The first time these two teams squared off this season, the Packers won in decisive fashion (38-17) as Aaron Rodgers carved up the Bears secondary. Rodgers completed 22-of-28 attempts for 302 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions as both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb went over the century mark with multiple scores.

Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is 1-9 in the 10 games he has faced the Packers and and he has completed just 56.8 percent of his pass attempts with 1.9 interceptions per game against them.

Looking at the ATS trends, Green Bay has covered in 11 of their past 14 matchups head-to-head. While the Packers have had plenty of success within the division (14-5 ATS), the Bears have struggled to the tune of a 2-11 ATS record within their past 13 divisional games.

Atlanta Falcons -3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 unit)

If you’ve followed my picks over the past several years, you know that I’m typically reluctant to pick small road ‘dogs (and hence this is only a one-unit play).

That said, there are a number of reasons to be confident in the Falcons. Although I’m concerned about the Falcons offensive line, the Bucs rank 32nd in the league in scoring defense and 31st in total defense.

The first time these two teams played, the Falcons beat the Bucs by 42 points. FORTY-TWO! And that was without Roddy White. While Julio Jones has been on a five-game scoring drought, he lit up the Bucs secondary for a 9/161/2 line in their Week 3 matchup.

Another thing I like about the Falcons is that they are coming off a bye. I always like taking teams that are playing with rest in the NFL regular season. Last but not least, the Bucs are a pathetic 13-34 ATS in their past 47 home games. There is no home-field “advantage” there. In addition, they are 5-21 ATS in their past 26 games as a home underdog.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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