Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

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Here are my Week 11 picks against the spread:

Denver Broncos -10.5 over St. Louis Rams (3 units)

For most teams, there is plenty of hesitation taking big favorites as anything can happen in the NFL. With the Broncos, however, they are built to roll over lesser opponents. Of course, it helps to have Peyton Manning under center with a trio of top-flight skill options in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas.

While teams may attempt to keep Peyton and Denver’s high-powered offense off the field by controlling the clock, the Broncos are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, which ties them for the league low in that statistic. And when teams are forced to throw (and St. Louis will switch back to Shaun Hill this week), the Broncos have the pass-rushers to get after the quarterback along with excellent corners. And unfortunately for the Rams, they have lost their best receiver, Brian Quick, for the year earlier in the season.

Since their bye, the Broncos have won five of six games with the exception being in Foxboro and all five of those wins have been by double digits with an average margin of 19.6 points. I have no reservations about laying double-digit points especially in a dome, where Peyton won’t have to deal with the cold-weather elements (like in New England).

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Seattle Seahawks +1 over Kansas City Chiefs (2 units)

The Chiefs have been great against the spread as they have covered eight consecutive games. As home favorites, however, they haven’t had as much success over the past several years with a 7-20 ATS record. On the other hand, it’s not common for the Seahawks to be underdogs, but they have only lost against the spread twice in the last 17 instances of being a ‘dog.

Perhaps the most interesting matchup of this game will be the Seahawks dominant ground game led by Marshawn Lynch, who scored four touchdowns last week, and quarterback Russell Wilson, who has three 100-yard rushing games, going against a Chiefs defense that has yet to allow a rushing score on the season.

I think the Chiefs give up multiple touchdowns on the ground today and the Seahawks win the game outright although it will be relatively close.

Chicago Bears -2.5 over Minnesota Vikings (1 unit)

This is a hunch selection (as the one unit suggests) since logic seems to favor the Vikings. Not only are the Vikings on a two-game winning streak, but they are coming off their bye and they get back tight end Kyle Rudolph. Last week, the Packers used a lot of two-TE sets to exploit one of the Bears (many) defensive weaknesses as they struggle to defend the tight end.

Obviously, giving up 50-plus points in back-to-back games clearly illustrates defensive woes. Of course, Teddy Bridgewater shouldn’t be confused with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, the quarterbacks that combined for triple-digit points against the Bears. [That's not a shot at Teddy, who was my top-ranked quarterback entering last year's draft, but a lot of defenses give up massive points to Rodgers/Brady.]

In addition, Jay Cutler has committed seven turnovers in the past three games, all losses for the Bears. The Bears have yet to win a home game this season, they have covered only 1 of their last 13 home games and the team is a pathetic 2-12 ATS vs. the NFC North.

All of those things have nearly talked myself out of going with this pick, but I think the Bears get the (rare) win (at home) and cover.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

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Source: http://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/blog/2014/11/week_11_nfl_picks_against_the_spread_ats_hanson.html