Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS): Hanson

Here are my Week 9 picks against the spread:

New England Patriots +3 over Denver Broncos (3 units)

The top-two AFC teams in my Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, the Broncos and Patriots are the class of the conference and this could be preview of AFC Championship Game (again). And while I think the Broncos are the best and most-balanced team in the league, the forecast that projects wind gusts up to 50 MPH could hurt Peyton Manning more than it hurts Tom Brady.

I liked this game even better when the spread was 3.5, because I expect this game to be close and it certainly could come down a field goal to decide the outcome. That said, Brady, Belichick and the Patriots have had a lot of success as underdogs. In the relatively rare instances of being a home underdog, Brady is 9-2 ATS in his career.

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Houston Texans +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (2 units)

In general, one of my favorite plays is a home underdog, but there are a few specific reasons why I like the Texans in this one. First of all, Arian Foster has been running the ball as well as any running back in the league. While DeMarco Murray has eight 100-yard games, Foster has gone over the 100-yard rushing mark in six of seven games.

While Philadelphia’s offense runs the second-most plays in the league, their defense is on the field for the second-most plays (70.9) as well. Given Houston’s ability to run the ball and control the clock, I could see the Texans wearing down the Eagles defense.

I’d also be tempted to take the Pats and Texans in a two-team teaser, adding six points to each of their spreads.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants — Over 51.5 (2 units)

No team in the league runs more plays than the Colts (74.4) and the Giants are actually 10th in the league in that category (65.4). In other words, we could see a massive 140 plays in this game based on their average numbers.

While the Colts defense shut out the Bengals in Week 7, they allowed 51 points last week to the Steelers. (I’ll go out on a limb and the G-Men score somewhere in between those two numbers.) In all seriousness, the Giants are coming off their bye and should be able to move the ball. While this study relates to fantasy production primarily, quarterbacks coming off a bye and playing at home saw a 17.9 percent boost in production compared to their other home games over the five-year period of 2008 to 2012.

Meanwhile, the Colts rank second in the league in scoring offense (31.2/G) and first in total offense (452.3/G). Heading into this week, the over is 6-2 in Colts games and 4-3 in Giants games.

Note: NFL lines are from sportsbook.ag

-> All of our 2014 NFL Weekly Picks Against the Spread will be tracked here.

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