Is It Time To Push The Panic Button On Orlando Arcia, Either Short Or Long-Term?

by Ray Kuhn

There are cases where a prospect’s value peaks before he even makes his Major League debut, which may be the situation we are dealing with in regards to Orlando Arcia.  Before I get accused of being overly dramatic, let’s take a step back.

Arcia’s struggles since his promotion are by no means indicative of his long term outlook, and the shortstop is still just 22-years old.  If you are playing strictly in a seasonal league, I wouldn’t expect much from him moving forward. However, the fact that Milwaukee is committed to him and he is receiving consistent playing time means we should at least keep him on our radars. At any time it is possible that the switch turns on.

Arcia spent last season in Double-A and he certainly created optimism both for the Brewers and fantasy owners for 2016. As a 21-year old he batted .307 with 8 HR, 74 runs, 69 RBI and 25 SB. After a season like that the logical next step was a few months of domination in Triple-A followed by bursting onto the scene with the Brewers like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa did last season.

Prior to his promotion Arcia hit .267 in Triple-A with 8 HR, 59 runs, 53 RBI and 15 SB in 100 games. At that point the shortstop was inserted directly into Milwaukee’s lineup, and despite his struggles he has spent the most time (through Monday) batting second in the order (11 games). The problem, though, is that regardless of where he has batted the results have not been there.

In 19 games he is hitting just .143, but he has had to deal with a .182 BABIP. Opportunities to run have not been plentiful andhe has just two stolen bases thus far.

From a long term perspective, you can’t let these 19 games alter your judgement (and it must be noted that he is one of the youngest players in the Majors). The question is, what should those in dynasty leagues expect from Arcia?

When Baseball America did their mid-season rankings they had Arcia as their 14th ranked prospect. There is still work to be done for Arcia, but his baseline skills and talent both point to him making an impact down the line.

 The Brewers would like him to work on lengthening his at-bats and working deeper counts, and his walk rate (5.4 to 6.6 percent) and strikeout rate 13.2 to 17.5 percent) have both climbed since last season at Double-A Biloxi . They expected he’d continue to show extra-base power, especially in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, but his slugging percentage has dropped back to his career norm following last year’s surge.

It is not time to panic yet, but you have to be troubled to some degree how this season has gone. It is still way too early to give up hope, or patience.