GOTW: Derby v Fulham

First post for a couple of weeks so it’s time for a recap.

Wolves are six points clear at the top despite having failed to win their last three games and Cardiff currently comfortable in second place after beating Bristol City last Sunday.

After that it’s anyone’s guess, but there are eight points between Aston Villa and Sheffield United in the playoff places and it’s feasible that any of the current top eight could still reach the playoffs or even win automatic promotion.

At the bottom: Hull, Barnsley, Birmingham, Burton and Sunderland realistically can’t make the playoffs, but the latter pair probably have the most work to do to avoid relegation to League One. Whatever happens in Sunderland’s game against Millwall this weekend, the Black Cats can’t escape the bottom three.

This probably won’t come as much of a surprise after this season’s performance in the competition, Sheffield Wednesday‘s defeat at Swansea earlier this week ensures there are no Championship teams left in the FA Cup.

Back to this weekend and four of the top six are at home, there’s only one candidate for Game of the Week.

Derby County v Fulham

This week’s game of the week would be a playoff semi final if the season ended last weekend.

The Rams haven’t been beaten at home since the end of November, but having drawn four of their last five games at Pride Park, they’ve not exactly been on fire either. Their record against the other promotion contenders isn’t particularly strong: only one win from their six matches against the other clubs in the top six, against Villa in mid December.

Fulham are in a similar position away from home: six games undefeated since mid-December, but only three wins in their last five away from Craven Cottage. That’s arguably better than Derby’s recent home form and that argument can be strengthened by a quick look at Fulham’s record against the other teams in the top six. Despite losing at both Villa and Wolves, the Cottagers have picked up four wins and two draws.

The problem for Fulham is that they have a dreadful record at Derby. Since the end of World War II they’ve played fifteen league games at either the Baseball Ground or Pride Park and won only two of them – their last victory was by a single goal in a Premier League encounter over 16 years ago. You have to go back to August 1954 for the previous victory.

Verdict: Fulham have only failed to score in two of their last ten away games and Derby have failed to score in only two of their last ten home games so that bodes well for goals. A draw wouldn’t be the worst result for either team – neither would drop out of the top six if that happened – but I’d expect Villa to beat QPR.

Sheffield United v Burton Albion was the other game worth following, but the terrible weather in Yorkshire put paid to that.

Televised games: Middlesbrough v Leeds (this evening, Sky Sports Main Event/Football, 7:45pm) and Wolves v Reading (tomorrow, Sky Sports Main Event/Football, 5:30pm). Can’t see either Boro or Wolves losing those.

There’s a full midweek programme next week but I’ll be back on Friday – unless the rumours about a possible managerial change turn out to be correct.