10 Important Stories from 09/21/18 Box Scores: How To Value Young Hitters (Devers/Gurriel), Pitchers Tough To Trust (Castillo/Berrios) & More

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Trevor Bauer made his return from the DL (1.1 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K), but won’t have enough time to make an impact for fantasy owners in ’18.  Jacob deGrom’s case for the NL Cy Young improved yesterday, as he got his record to 9-9 by allowing 1 ER on 3 H and 1 BB, striking out 8, over 7.0 IP to earn the W over Washington.  Gerrit Cole dominated the Angels, allowing 3 ER on 6 H and 0 BB, striking out 12, over 7.0 IP.  What else happened on the field that we need to know about?  Let’s dive into the box scores and take a look:

1) Reynaldo Lopez takes advantage of a lead…
By the third inning the White Sox had handed him a 4-1 lead over Jose Quintana (5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 8 K) and Lopez made it stick.  Going 7.0 innings he allowed 1 R on 5 H and 0 BB, striking out 8, to improve to 7-9 with a 3.94 ERA.  He’s now gone five straight starts allowing 1 ER or less (and six straight allowing 2 ER or fewer).  Over this 5 start stretch he’s gone 34.0 IP allowing 3 ER on 20 H and 6 BB, striking out 36.  Do we truly believe the once highly hyped prospect has finally figured something out?  Home runs will continue to be a concern (33.1% groundball rate entering the day, 6 groundballs vs. 7 fly balls yesterday), and his one mistake yesterday was a home run to Daniel Murphy.  There are also concerns about his strikeout upside, though he entered the day with a 12.1% SwStr% in September (he got 14 swinging strikes yesterday).  If he can maintain that he will have a chance to continue producing strong numbers, regardless of the groundball rate.  That will be the key evaluation for moving forward.

2) Is Rafael Devers set to finish the season strong…
He went 2-5 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 1 R yesterday, giving him a modest four-game hitting streak (6-16, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 5 R).  Obviously it’s been a disappointing season overall, hitting .242 with 18 HR and 58 RBI, and it’s hard to get excited based on some of the underlying numbers.  His approach has been abysmal, much like last season, entering the day with a 13.3% SwStr% and 37.4% O-Swing%.  That means strikeouts will remain a part of his game, and he’s also struggled with popups (16.2% IFFB) and we all knew he couldn’t maintain last year’s BABIP (.342 has dropped to .288).  He clearly has potential and should continue to develop, though don’t bank on him suddenly getting white hot.

3) Where has Josh Bell’s power gone…
That’s the big question, despite a home run yesterday, as Bell is hitting .270 but with just 11 HR and 60 RBI over 470 AB on the season.  He’s finishing strong (18-52, 3 HR, 6 RBI in September), but that’s hardly enough to convince anyone.  We have to remember that he wasn’t seen as much of a power hitter coming up through the minors, and even last year when he slugged 26 HR he wasn’t hitting the ball exceptionally hard (32.6% Hard%) and he was consistently burying the ball into the ground (51.1% groundball rate).  It’s possible that he has tried to improve his approach, as he hasn’t been as pull happy as he was a year ago (41.5% Pull% to 34.5%) and he continues to show a solid approach.  If he can find the happy middle, and he’s trying to in the second half (42.7% Hard%) he could develop into a 20ish HR hitter with a very good average.  Consider him a strong post-hype sleeper for 2019 and one we’ll really dive into during the offseason.

4) Lourdes Gurriel just continues to hit, but are we buying…
The Blue Jays didn’t generate much offense as they lost to Tampa Bay 11-3, but Gurriel did the bulk of the damage going 3-4 with 2 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R.  He’s now homered in back-to-back games and is hitting .288 with 4 HR, 10 RBI and 12 R over 73 AB in September.  Of course his approach continues to be a question, as he’s struck out 20 times vs. 4 walks in September and in the Majors owns a 12.0% SwStr% and 39.3% O-Swing%.  The latter is a big issue, as it’s helped keep him from making hard contact (30.4% Hard%) and he’s also been a pull hitter (45.1% Pull%) making him more prone to shifts.  While he’s maintained a strong average for now, he could go ice cold at any moment as is tough to trust.

5) The surge of Luis Castillo continues…
Taking on the Marlins he settled for a no decision as Wei-Yin Chen matched him pitch for pitch (7.0 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K), as Castillo tossed 8.1 shutout innings allowing 5 H and 1 BB, striking out 5.  He did a good job of getting groundballs (13 vs. 7 fly balls) and has now allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts.  There has been some bad luck behind his struggles (70.1% strand rate), though overall he’s been hit hard (38.9% Hard%) and has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark (1.56 HR/9).  We’d expect improvement in both of those areas, especially as he’s shown swing and miss stuff throughout the season (13.7% SwStr%) and has gotten opponents to stray from the strike zone enough (32.9% O-Swing%).  He isn’t a must start for his final outing, but the upside is there.  Don’t write him off.

6) Home run issues continued to plague Andrew Heaney…
Yulieski Gurriel did the bulk of the damage, hitting a pair of home runs off Heaney (he finished the day going 3-4 with 2 HR, 7 RBI and 2 R).  For Heaney it’s the second straight start where he’s allowed 2 HR (and he’s allowed 2 HR in four of his past six outings).  Over 173.0 innings he’s allowed 25 HR, helping to explain his 4.20 ERA.  He has shown enough strikeouts (8.74 K/9 entering the day) and control (2.17 BB/9) that if he could figure out how to cut that number, even a little bit, he should enjoy significant success (assuming he can also get his 38.4% Hard% under control).  He may never been an ace, but he has the potential to make an impact and belongs on all watch lists heading into 2019.

7) Is it time to write off John Gant…
He was a popular sleeper for a little while, but yesterday’s start could be the one to end the consideration of using him.  In a favorable matchup against the Giants he couldn’t even get 9 outs, allowing 1 ER on 4 H and 3 BB, striking out 3, over 2.2 IP.  His control has been dismal over his past six starts, walking 21 over 23.2 IP.  In his previous outing he allowed 6 ER over 4.1 IP and while he ultimately escaped without a lot of runs scoring yesterday it was more luck than anything.  It’s possible he’s tiring, having worked 158.2 innings on the season, and if he does get another start that doesn’t bode well.  Don’t consider him a viable option regardless right now.

8) German Marquez looks like an ace yet again…
Taking on the Diamondbacks Marquez earned the W allowing 2 R on 6 H and 0 BB, striking out 11, over 7.0 IP.  He got an impressive 19 swinging strikes and while he has 210 K over 184.1 IP overall, he’s been even better of late.  He’s struck out 11+ batters in four of his past five starts, and he’s been racking up the strikeouts without issuing a lot of walks (he hasn’t walked more than 2 batters in a game since July 20).  While Coors Field is always going to be a concern, he’s paired the strikeouts and control with more than enough groundballs (47.1% entering the day) and it’s not like there’s anything unrealistic in the luck metrics (72.4% strand rate, .311 BABIP).  He may not quite be a Top 10-15 starter, but he belong in the Top 25 and he’s showing why.

9) Not the start Jose Berrios owners wanted…
Khris Davis got things going in the first with a home run (and he also walked it off in the tenth, finishing going 2-5 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R), and things never really got “good” for Berrios.  He finished allowing 5 ER on 4 H and 3 BB, striking out 8, over 5.2 IP.  He had posted back-to-back solid starts prior to this one, though both of them came against the Royals so we have to take that into account (at least a little bit).  He simply hasn’t been very good in the second half, with a 4.50 ERA, with home runs (25 HR over 185.1 IP) being the biggest issue all season long.  Figuring out how to keep the ball in the ballpark will be the difference between him emerging as an elite starter and just a decent one moving forward.

10) Cedric Mullins enjoys a big day atop Baltimore’s batting order…
He went 2-4 with 3 R and 1 SB, with the speed being the key as he’s now stolen 2 bases in his past five games.  While he hasn’t really shown it yet, he had 21 SB between Double and Triple-A prior to his recall and has stolen as many as 30 bases in a minor league season.  Couple that with a strong approach (something he’s continued showing in the Majors, with a 6.3% SwStr% and 21.3% O-Swing%) and potential for double digit home runs (he had 29 doubles, 8 triples and 11 HR over 441 AB prior to his recall) and what’s not to like?  He should emerge as a fixture atop the lineup and bring 10/25 potential with plenty of runs scored in 2019.

Sources – ESPN, Fangraphs