AL East preview – Can the Rays return to post-season play?

TAMPA, Fla. – After playing baseball in October for five straight years, the anguish and dismay from missing postseason play have quietly faded into the history books. That 2024 year of disappointment and underachieving lay dormant, and collectively, the Tampa Bay Rays have gathered a greater sense of purpose and resolve.

Now, there is a return to hope and optimism that the 2024 season, in which the Rays went 80-82, was an aberration. In pre-season polls, most pundits believe the Rays are stuck in mediocrity and the likely consequence is a sub-500 season.

A significant factor for the club’s renewed attitude is the physical health of the team. That was before one of their significant players lefty Shane McClanahan, went down at the end of spring training.

Just days before the team prepared to break camp, manager Kevin Cash told reporters, “We’ve been pretty fortunate on the health side, and especially with the pitching.” Immediately from Cash’s observation, the Rays began navigating through the immediate loss of McClanahan and a revised starting rotation to open the season.

Still, the purpose and incentive of the upcoming baseball season remain powerful.

“After what happened last season, everyone has a fire under them,” said reliever Kevin Kelly, who went 5-2 and a 2.67 ERA in 68 appearances. “With a bunch of guys back healthy, I think we have the ability to play really, really well.”

At the start of spring training, the consensus held that pitching would likely determine the direction of this team. In the final days of camp, the Rays were hit with that catastrophic dilemma, and that’s when McClanahan, the presumptive head of the staff, went down with nerve irritation in the triceps area of his left arm. Immediately, the Rays placed the 28-year-old on the 15-day injured list.

For a team with a marginal result from a year ago and the popular perception that the Rays will underachieve again in 2025, the loss of McClanahan could have lingering and residual effects.

If the Rays’ starting rotation is compromised, AL East division rivals appear with a similar fate.

Both the Boston Red Sox (81-81) and New York Yankees (94-68) have starting pitchers down and could face struggling starts.

For New York, righty Gerrit Cole, their presumptive ace, recently underwent Tommy John surgery from complications diagnosed as right elbow inflammation and edema. In addition, lefty Louis Gill is out at least three months with a lat strain. The offense took a hit as well when Giancarlo Stanton was forced to the sidelines with discomfort to both elbows.

With Cole out until the mid-2026 season, that pushed lefty Carlos Rondon as the Yankees’ opening pitcher and set the Yankee rotation awry.

“The timing was a major decision in naming (Rodon) as much as anything,” said Aaron Boone, the Yankees manager. “You start to line guys up, and (Cole) was going to be lined up in that spot. But to switch things around, that would have caused guys to have to probably miss one start in spring training. That’s the building blocks for the season and it just didn’t work.”

Before Cole went down and forced Boone to juggle his rotation, Rodon was slotted in the three spot within the New York rotation.

The Yankees offense took a hit as well when Stanton missed all of spring training with discomfort to both elbows. No timetable for his return, and surgery has not been ruled out. Here, new additions Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt, plus veteran Aaron Judge, are expected to provide a significant offensive thrust.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who said earlier this spring that “if you pitch, you have a great chance to win,” is also flexing his rotation. Currently, right-handers Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito will open the season on the injured list. That leaves lefty Garrett Crochet and righties Walker Buehler and Tanner Houck at the top of the rotation.

The Boston offense strengthened with the addition of Alex Bregman at third and now Rafael Devers as the DH. Veteran Trevor Story and first baseman Triston Casas are capable of power and production.

Though Toronto (74-88) appears to have similar attention to the Rays, there could be improvement from their dismal 2024 season, The Jays’ offense could be improved with outfielder Anthony Santander (.235, 44 home runs, 102 RBIs with Baltimore) and veteran pitcher Max Scherzer.

“We’ll learn from last season,” promised John Schneider, the Jays skipper. “To start the season, we may be shorthanded. Daulton Varsho may miss some time (effects of shoulder surgery), but our players know how to get back as contenders.”

The Baltimore Orioles (91-71) start the season without 2023 AL rookie-of-the-year shortstop Gunner Henderson (mild right intercostal strain) and lost an offensive punch when Santander signed, as a free agent, with the Jays. Without notable team strength, the Birds could be cellar-dwellers

PREDICTION –

The winner of this division may be the last man standing.” If, and there is always the ”if factor,” players respond with production and purpose, any team could catapult to the top. The early bet is the Red Sox and their starting pitching. If Buehler stays healthy, he could win 14-18 games and Crochet, as a strikeout machine, gives the Sox a strong lefty every five days. Bregman will clearly bang the baseball around Fenway Park and the essential starting eight appear sound.

For New York, Judge, Bellinger, and Goldschmidt will help put tup crooked numbers and Devin Williams, if he’s healthy, will give Boone a viable closer.

The Rays could be the “x” factor. Depending on the health and consistency of their starting rotation, and the strength of the bullpen, the Rays could surprise. To do that, the offense must dramatically increase production and power from the dormant 2024 season.

On Sept. 28, this is the American League East final standings –

BOSTON – 94-68

NEW YORK – 89-73

TAMPA BAY – 84-78

TORONTO – 80-82

BALTIMORE – 77-85

NOTE – the numbers in parentheses for teams are wins-losses for the 2024 season

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