Chicago Cubs trade deadline aggression may hinge on one key factor

The Chicago Cubs are set to begin the second half of the season five games behind the first place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central Division and a half-game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for the top NL Wild Card spot.

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That’s not a bad place to be for a team withstanding an unprecedented wave of injuries that has decimated both the starting rotation and bullpen.

For many, the August 3 MLB trade deadline represents a “the cavalry is coming” target date for the team, as they could reinforce a battered and strained staff—currently ranked 21st in team ERA—with some much-needed pitching pickups.

But there’s no guarantee on how many impact arms will actually be available at the deadline in what looks to be a tight pennant race. More importantly, there’s no guarantee on how aggressive the Cubs will actually be as the deadline approaches.

Questions regarding Cubs deadline aggression

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According to many media analysts—based off the words of Cubs president Jed Hoyer himself—the team’s level of deadline aggression will depend heavily on how well the team does in the next 2 ½ weeks as they target an important bye in the first round of the playoffs.

Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic:

“The Chicago Cubs are 21st [in team ERA], and remain in dire need of pitching help in all forms. Some might come from the injured list (righty starters Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera, closer Daniel Palencia, righty reliever Phil Maton). Some almost certainly will need to come from trades, and lefty David Peterson was a start.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer perhaps tipped his hand last month on how aggressively he might act at the deadline, saying a first-round bye was critical to a team’s odds of winning the World Series. The Cubs are five games back for the second NL bye, currently held by their division rival, the Brewers. They need to narrow that gap in the next 2 1/2 weeks.”

A crucial stretch is upcoming

And, yeah, Hoyer has also directly said that how well the team does in this next stretch will determine his trade deadline moves.

“It has been a really up-and-down season,” Hoyer told The Athletic earlier this month. “There’s no reason to think that’s the way the rest of the season is going to go. It could go that way, or we could just proceed to level things out, and I hope we do. But, yeah, this is a really important stretch. The market will dictate a lot of those things. But, of course, our play is going to dictate a level of aggressiveness.”

“You have to look at how your team is playing,” Hoyer added, “how you are relative to .500. How are your underlying numbers? How is your health? You have to understand your own team.”

In other words, Chicago won’t be spending the trade capital needed to bring in top-tier pitching at the deadline unless Hoyer and company feel that the team has an edge coming into the postseason.

This mindset may leave Cubs fans once again disappointed, as they were last season, in the team’s trade deadline haul in support of a squad that has shown itself to have the spark of being something special.

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