David Bailey Has Been Overlooked, But the Jets May Have Drafted a Star

For a fanbase capable of turning a backup quarterback’s completion in June into a three-day argument, Jets fans have been strangely quiet about David Bailey.

The Jets did not take him in the second round. They did not grab him in the middle of the first and begin selling us on his “upside.”

They selected Bailey second overall.

He was the first defensive player chosen in the 2026 NFL Draft and the highest-drafted defender in franchise history. The Jets have spent decades searching for a legitimate successor to John Abraham. This time, they had the entire defensive draft board available and chose Bailey.

Then everyone more or less moved on.

Maybe it is because Bailey was one of three Jets first-round picks. Maybe Geno Smith’s return, another coaching-staff overhaul and the wreckage of a 3–14 season consumed all the oxygen. Maybe a fanbase that has been sold fourteen consecutive versions of a new beginning has finally stopped preordering the commemorative T-shirt.

Whatever the reason, this is not the normal reception for the No. 2 pick in the draft.

It is especially strange once you examine the player.

Bailey was not a late bloomer who suddenly learned how to rush the passer during one convenient contract year. He was dominant in high school, immediately productive at Stanford, increasingly disruptive despite playing a rotational role, and then devastating once Texas Tech finally turned him loose.

The resume has been building for years. The excitement has not caught up to it.

The Monster Was There From the Beginning

Bailey comes from Mater Dei, the Southern California football factory that has produced Matt Leinart, Bryce Young, Amon-Ra St. Brown and enough major-college recruits to make some NCAA programs look underfunded.

As a sophomore in 2019, Bailey shared a roster with Young, who would eventually become the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Bailey dealt with injuries early in his high-school career, but by his senior season there was very little mystery about what he had become.

In 2021, Bailey recorded 54 tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, 15.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. Mater Dei finished 12–0, won California’s Open Division state championship and was recognized as the nation’s No. 1 high-school team. This was not empty production accumulated against overmatched schools. Mater Dei played one of the best schedules in the country. In two victories over Trinity League rival Servite, Bailey produced 3.5 tackles for loss in the first game and 1.5 sacks in the second.

He was named California Defensive Player of the Year, Trinity League Defensive Player of the Year and Orange County Defensive Player of the Year. He was selected for the All-American Bowl and finished as 247Sports’ No. 3 edge prospect and No. 33 overall player-the first prospect left outside its five-star rankings. Stanford’s official biography credits him with 20.5 career high-school sacks, meaning three-quarters of his total came during that final season.

The off-field resume was nearly as impressive. Bailey was on Mater Dei’s principal’s honor roll. His parents, Anthony and Monica, immigrated from Jamaica and Ghana, respectively. His older brother, DJ, played defensive end at Harvard. When Bailey chose Stanford over USC and other major programs, it was not a highly ranked athlete pretending academics mattered during his commitment announcement. It was a legitimate fit.

Stanford: Producing Before He Was Featured

Bailey enrolled early and made an immediate impact. As a true freshman in 2022, he appeared in 11 games and started nine. He recorded 46 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 13 quarterback hurries and two forced fumbles. That earned him a place on 247Sports’ True Freshman All-America team. The sack total was modest. Everything underneath it suggested more was coming.

As a sophomore, Bailey played 10 games with five starts and led Stanford with six tackles for loss and five sacks. Three of those sacks came in the season opener against Hawaii, the most by a Stanford defender in a single game since 2014. Then came the unusual part of his college career. Bailey became more productive in 2024 but less prominent in Stanford’s starting lineup. He started only two of 12 games while functioning as a rotational outside linebacker. Nevertheless, he led the Cardinal in tackles for loss, sacks, quarterback hurries and forced fumbles.

His final line: 31 tackles, eight tackles for loss, seven sacks and five forced fumbles.

Seven sacks were the most by a Stanford player since Casey Toohill recorded eight in 2019.

That is the important part of Bailey’s Stanford story. He was not an unproductive player who needed to transfer somewhere easier. Over three seasons, he accumulated 14.5 sacks despite spending much of his career in a rotational role.

The talent was visible. The opportunity was limited.

Bailey also completed his Stanford degree in science, technology and society in three years. Having graduated, he entered the transfer portal in search of a program willing to make him a full-time edge defender.

Texas Tech provided it.

Texas Tech Finally Turned Him Loose

The transfer did not transform Bailey into a different player. It gave him enough snaps to reveal the player he had already become.

Texas Tech moved him from Stanford’s rotational outside-linebacker role into a full-time defensive-end position. His role expanded from a two-start rotation at Stanford to 13 starts in 14 games at Texas Tech.

His production nearly doubled with it.

Bailey started 13 of 14 games and finished with:

• 52 tackles
• 19.5 tackles for loss
• 14.5 sacks
• 13 quarterback hurries
• Three forced fumbles
• Three passes defensed

He recorded at least a share of a sack in 11 of 14 games and a tackle for loss in all but one. Against five opponents that finished the season ranked, Bailey produced 8.5 tackles for loss and five sacks. All three of his forced fumbles came on strip-sacks.

His 14.5 sacks tied for the FBS lead. His 19.5 tackles for loss ranked second.

According to Texas Tech’s records, Bailey became the first Big 12 player since 2009 to record at least 14 sacks and 18 tackles for loss in the same season. He was named the Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year, Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year and a unanimous first-team All-American.

Texas Tech won its first Big 12 championship and reached the College Football Playoff.

In one season, Bailey matched the 14.5 sacks he had accumulated during three years at Stanford. More importantly, his production survived the larger role. He did not simply compile statistics because he played more. He continued beating blockers after offenses knew exactly where he was and what he intended to do.

That is why the Jets took him over the more theoretical upside of Arvell Reese.

Reese may eventually become a tremendous edge rusher. Bailey had already demonstrated that he was one.

What the Jets Actually Drafted

At the combine, Bailey measured 6-foot-3⅝ and 251 pounds with 33¾-inch arms and 10¼-inch hands.

He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.50 seconds, posted a 1.62-second 10-yard split, jumped 35 inches vertically and recorded a 10-foot-9 broad jump.

Those numbers confirm what the film shows. Bailey is explosive out of his stance, covers ground quickly and has legitimate NFL closing speed.

But calling him an athletic project would undersell him.

Bailey already possesses a mature pass-rush plan. He can threaten a tackle’s outside shoulder with his first step and bend, convert that speed into power, cross-chop the blocker’s hands or counter inside with a spin move. His closing burst becomes particularly noticeable when the quarterback moves off his spot. He does not need the play to remain perfectly structured to finish it.

Sports Info Solutions ranked Bailey second overall and described him as an immediate three-down starter with eventual All-Pro potential. Its evaluation highlighted his first step, violent initial punch, rip, swipe and spin moves, ability to handle chips and effectiveness on stunts.

That last part will matter in Glenn’s defense. Bailey does not have to remain parked outside the offensive tackle. Texas Tech occasionally reduced him inside or ran him through twists, allowing his acceleration to stress slower guards and create confusion between blockers.

The concern is also obvious.

Bailey is long but lean. When a 320-pound tackle gets squarely into his chest, he can have difficulty anchoring, separating and maintaining the edge. At times, his eagerness to penetrate becomes his biggest problem. He will shoot inside, lose contain and create an escape route for the running back or quarterback.

That is different from saying Bailey cannot defend the run.

The concern is inconsistency, not a complete inability to play the run. He showed the ability to take on pulling guards and tackles in college, and Glenn has publicly dismissed the idea that Bailey is a run-game liability. The issue is using his length properly, staying disciplined and learning that an NFL defender sometimes wins by occupying the correct gap rather than trying to personally destroy every play.

There is also one off-field incident that should not be airbrushed out of a complete profile. Following Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona State, photographer Mark Rebilas alleged that Bailey confronted and grabbed him after objecting to being photographed. Rebilas filed a police report, although no charges were filed. The Jets clearly investigated it and remained comfortable selecting Bailey second overall, but it remains part of his evaluation.

Otherwise, Bailey presents as intelligent, thoughtful and unusually accomplished academically. He told reporters that he would study psychology if given another chance to choose a major because of his interest in human behavior and the mindset of opponents.

For an edge rusher, that seems reasonably useful.

The Comparisons-and What They Did as Rookies

No comparison is exact. Bailey’s body, athletic testing, technique and role point toward several different NFL players, and each comparison tells us something different.

Player	Why the comparison fits	Rookie season	What it tells us
Will Anderson Jr.	Nearly identical size and length, similar 10-yard explosion, high-end college production and a developed power/speed combination	15 games, 13 starts, 45 tackles, 7 sacks, 22 QB hits and 67 pressures; Defensive Rookie of the Year	Seven sacks can represent a dominant rookie year when the pressure production and run defense are already present.
Brian Burns	Lean, explosive speed rusher with bend, closing burst and an inside counter	16 games, five starts, 23 tackles, 7.5 sacks and 27 pressures	Bailey can produce immediately without being a fully finished run defender. Burns lost snaps because Carolina preferred heavier defenders on early downs.
Nik Bonitto	The most common stylistic comparison: similar frame, first-step speed and stand-up outside-linebacker ability	15 games, one start, 13 tackles and 1.5 sacks	Role matters. Bonitto was used sparingly as a rookie, then jumped to eight sacks in Year 2 and 13.5 in Year 3.
Aidan Hutchinson	Not a physical match, but the most relevant coaching comparison: another No. 2 overall edge defender placed in Glenn’s attacking front	17 starts, 52 tackles, 9.5 sacks, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries	Glenn has already shown that he will give an elite rookie edge rusher an immediate, expansive role.

Anderson may be the most revealing physical comparison. He measured 6-foot-3½ and 253 pounds with 33⅞-inch arms and a 1.61-second 10-yard split. Bailey is within two pounds, one-eighth of an inch in arm length and one-hundredth of a second in the split.

That does not mean Bailey will become Anderson. Anderson was a cleaner run defender and one of the most decorated defensive players in college-football history.

It means Bailey belongs in that physical family.

Burns demonstrates the immediate pass-rush potential. Bonitto represents the developmental risk if Bailey cannot earn early-down trust. Hutchinson provides the blueprint for how Glenn treats a premium edge prospect.

Taken together, the comparisons establish a reasonable rookie range. Bailey does not need 12 sacks to justify the pick. Anderson won Defensive Rookie of the Year with seven. But a rotational 1.5-sack season like Bonitto’s would be difficult to accept from the second overall selection because Bailey should receive a much larger opportunity.

Aaron Glenn Has Built Around a No. 2 Edge Before

Glenn’s four years as Detroit’s defensive coordinator were not an uninterrupted run of defensive brilliance.

The Lions ranked near the bottom of the league during the first half of that tenure. They lacked established talent, struggled in coverage and periodically gave up points in bulk. Through the first seven games of 2022, Detroit allowed 32.1 points per game.

Then Glenn adjusted his scheme and personnel. Over the final 10 games, the Lions allowed 20.2 points per game, the NFL’s 11th-best mark during that stretch.

The larger lesson was Glenn’s willingness to change.

Detroit began Glenn’s tenure with a read-and-react 3–4. After drafting Hutchinson second overall in 2022, Glenn shifted toward a more aggressive 4–3 front designed around penetration and disruption. He still used odd fronts and multiple alignments, but the foundation became attack rather than reaction.

“Schematically, what can we do to help these players be the best they can be?” Glenn explained when discussing the change. Detroit’s own account explicitly connected the new approach to maximizing Hutchinson and the young defensive line.

By 2024, Detroit ranked first in third-down defense and opponent passer rating. Across 2023 and 2024 combined, the Lions allowed the NFL’s fewest rushing yards per game. Glenn also had enough confidence in his secondary to play Cover 1 on 35.2 percent of Detroit’s defensive snaps in 2024, the league’s second-highest total.

Glenn wants to challenge receivers, crowd throwing windows and make quarterbacks hold the ball. That approach becomes dangerous without a pass rush and devastating with one.

The Jets learned the first part in 2025.

They finished with only 26 sacks while allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw 36 touchdowns without a single interception-the first zero-interception season in NFL history. Glenn did not call the defensive plays last year, but as head coach he still owns the result.

In 2026, that arrangement changes.

Glenn will call the defense himself while new coordinator Brian Duker handles much of the preparation and organization. Bailey is not merely another player being added to Glenn’s defense. He is the centerpiece of Glenn’s attempt to reclaim what he has called his coaching “superpower.”

How David Bailey Will Be Used

Ignore the argument over whether the Jets are a 3–4 or 4–3 team. Glenn has already supplied the answer: both, depending on personnel and situation.

He has said the Jets will use four-man fronts, five-man fronts and considerable pre-snap movement. Because NFL defenses spend roughly 70 percent of their time in nickel, Glenn expects to operate primarily from four-down spacing regardless of how the official depth chart labels the players.

For Bailey, that should produce three primary roles.

In the base 3–4, he will stand up as an outside linebacker. Bailey said before the draft that he prefers a two-point stance against the run because that was familiar to him at Stanford.

When the Jets move to a four-man front, Bailey will place his hand in the dirt and attack from defensive end. On third down, he can use a sprinter’s stance and focus almost entirely on beating the tackle to the corner.

Finally, Glenn can move him. Bailey can rush from a wide alignment, reduce inside, run games with Jowon Briggs or David Onyemata and occasionally drop into the flat as part of a simulated pressure. He has enough linebacker experience to make the latter believable, although dropping Bailey should remain a changeup-not a habit.

The obvious passing-down package puts Bailey and McDonald on opposite edges, with the 366-pound T’Vondre Sweat occupying blockers inside and Briggs supplying interior pressure. Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare give Glenn enough depth to keep Bailey fresh and protect him during difficult run situations without making him a part-time player.

A recent Jets X-Factor projection placed Bailey at a defensive-line-high 65 percent of the snaps. That feels reasonable. He should play more than Bonitto or Burns did as rookies, although probably not the enormous 900-plus-snap workload Hutchinson carried.

The Jets did not select Bailey second overall to become a designated third-down rusher. They selected him to eventually become the player opposing offenses identify before every snap.

What Should We Expect in Year One?

The fair expectation is not that Bailey immediately becomes an All-Pro. It is that he immediately becomes disruptive.

A reasonable rookie target would be:

• Approximately 60–70 percent of the defensive snaps
• Seven to nine sacks
• At least 40–50 total pressures
• Two or three forced fumbles
• A legitimate presence in the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation

Ten or more sacks would constitute an exceptional rookie season and place him alongside Hutchinson’s first-year production. Five or six sacks would not necessarily mean he struggled if the pressure rate remained strong and he developed into a dependable run defender.

The larger concern would be usage. If Bailey is playing fewer than half the snaps by November because Glenn cannot trust him to hold the edge, that would suggest the transition is taking longer than expected.

There are other ways to measure his impact.

Does McDonald receive more isolated pass-rush opportunities? Do hurried quarterbacks finally give the secondary chances to intercept passes? Can the Jets create pressure with four rushers instead of exposing their coverage with constant blitzes? Does Bailey remain disciplined when offenses begin testing him with counters, traps and read-option concepts?

The sacks will attract the attention. Those questions will tell us whether he is becoming a complete player.

The Quiet Will Not Last

Jets fans have good reason to be cautious. Optimism around this team has usually come with an expiration date and no refund policy.

But Bailey’s case does not require blind optimism.

He was dominant at Mater Dei. He started immediately at Stanford. His sacks rose from 2.5 to five to seven despite remaining in a rotational role. When Texas Tech made him a full-time starter, his sack production doubled and he became the most productive pass rusher in college football.

Every time Bailey has been given more responsibility, he has produced more disruption.

Now Glenn gets to make the next bet.

The Jets selected the first defender in the draft and gave a defensive head coach the type of player who can reshape everything behind him. Bailey has the explosiveness to wreck a third down immediately, the intelligence to handle Glenn’s multiplicity and the production to suggest this is far more than a projection.

For the moment, his arrival has been strangely quiet.

That should change the first time David Bailey beats a tackle off the snap, bends around the corner and introduces himself to an NFL quarterback.

Sacks have a way of creating their own fanfare.

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