Hot & Cold Map: Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

It’s a rare week for a Baltimore Ravens fan – the opening game of a season with a new head coach.  It’s only happened three times before.  The Ravens are 2-1 in those games, with Ted Marchibroda and John Harbaugh winning their initial contest at home, and Brian Billick losing his on the road.  Continuing the alternating pattern, the Ravens are on the road Sunday.

Since this is the first game of the regular season, there is no seasonal data to draw from.  We have to look at 2025.  What we can say is the Indianapolis Colts are mostly consistent.  Their head coach (Shane Steichen), offensive coordinator (Jim Bob Cooter), and defensive coordinator (Lou Anarumo) are all the same.  The starting QB (Daniel Jones) is the same, albeit returning from a major injury.  Most of the surrounding cast on both offense and defense is the same.  It’s the Ravens that have the question marks regarding what they’ll be.

Colts Offense against Ravens Defense

The Colts are going to be like most teams in the NFL where their most common package is 11 personnel, followed by 12 personnel.  It would be quite surprising otherwise.  You can see it in how their roster is constructed.  There is no fullback and their target pattern follows the norm:  TE1 and WR 1-3 get the most snaps, followed by RB1 and TE2.  In the first half of last season, when Jones was healthy, they were one of the top offenses in the league.  They scored 30 or more points in seven of the 10 games prior to the bye week and only once in the seven games after the bye… all losses.

Danny Dimes is back and it doesn’t look like his arm is affected by the torn right Achilles he suffered.  This is a concern for the Ravens as he was putting up a career year with his new team.  He ended the season with the single highest success rate passing:  52.0% of his throws netted more yards than what is considered a successful play based on down and distance.  The team’s passing attack is going to miss the sure hands of Michael Pittman Jr, but they brought in a similar type in Keenan Allen and the rest of the cast is the same.  Alec Pierce led the NFL in yards per reception (21.3) and is going to play despite not being 100%.  Tyler Warren is one of the up-and-coming TE of the league.

All of this, however, is fueled by their run game.  Jonathan Taylor is a stud, simple as that.  When he is healthy he is a threat to have a 2000-yard season, and he came close to doing just that in 2021.  He has 69 rushing TD in six seasons, two of them cut short.  Although not a receiving specialist, he cannot be ignored in the passing game either.  We saw what happened to the team without their top QB, and we’d see the same thing without Taylor, as their backups are nowhere close to the threat level he brings.

All of this, however, is fueled by their blocking.  It’s a comment on how much football is a team game.  Their OL, headlined by the trio of LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quentin Nelson, and C Tanor Bortolini, is one of the best, most consistent lines in the league.  Their right side of Matt Goncalves and Jalen Travis is large and above average in run blocking.  The Ravens thankfully have a mantra of stopping the run first, because they’ll need to bring their best run defenders against this group as a whole.  The EDGE duo of Tavius Robinson and rookie Zion Young will be key on early downs and Kyle Hamilton will need to spend a lot of time in the box.  The big off season acquisition of Trey Hendrickson won’t matter much if he’s forced to stay on the sidelines.

Much is being said about the 38-point boat race Jones, Taylor and company put on Jesse Minter’s defense when he was coordinating the Chargers last season.  We tend to think he’s got this game circled on the calendar.  That doesn’t mean the result will change however.  Because Nnamdi Madubuike is not playing, I’m going to say the Colts score at least 24 points.

Colts Defense against Ravens Offense

This match up looks a lot better for Baltimore.  The Colts use a defense built off the 4-2 nickel with an emphasis on disguised coverages.  Lamar Jackson is very familiar with their coordinator Lou Anarumo, whose teams are 4-9 against the Ravens to date.  Most of their top players are back but there are a few significant changes here, and they will be relying on several young players with little or no NFL data.

The first challenge for the Ravens new offensive line and OL coach Dwayne Ledford is headed by two of the better players at their position that aren’t talked about enough:  DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu.  Buckner’s specialty is interior pass rush while Latu’s is more run defense and coverage.  Latu is a perfect match for Anarumo’s scheme.  Although this unit has some juice to it, I don’t think they’ll do well against what the Ravens have to offer.  Grover Stewart is the only big guy they have and new Ravens OC Declan Doyle will run the ball.  Arden Key, listed as starter opposite Latu, is also a listed 240 lbs.  Latu and sophomore J.T. Tuimoloau are about 265.

Perhaps the biggest key on their defense is rookie SS A.J. Haulcy who is definitely a run-first defender., but partly due to this, I think the middle of the field will be highly exploitable once the run is established.  LB Akeem Davis-Gaither doesn’t cover well and Jaylon Carlies, recently announced as the starter next to him, missed most of last season with ankle problems.  It’s not a stretch to say they have the worst LB room in the league, but we won’t know for sure until the first few games of the season are played.

If there’s a strength the defense has it’s the starting outside corners, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.  Neither player played a full season for Indianapolis last year – Gardner because he was traded for, and Ward because he suffered three concussions.  Because of their scheme the secondary is asked to support the run in abundance but you have to wonder if Ward is willing to continue to do that.  Gardner himself may be the best run defending CB in the league, but does he really want to take on Derrick Henry?  I am harping on the Ravens run game but I’m also interested in what the quartet of rookie receiving options will do, particularly Ja’Kobi Lane, who is getting a ton of buzz.  I wonder if he’ll actually attract Indy’s attention.

This may be the optimism of Summer talking, but I believe the Ravens hang at least 31 points on the Colts.

Conclusion

This particular game isn’t going to make or break either the Ravens’ or Colts’ season, but coming out of Indy with a win (and health) is going to assuage the concern of having so many new parts. The thing I didn’t touch on is the Ravens offensive line and that is just something I need to see before forming a real opinion.

I’m going with Ravens 31, Colts 27 but if the first two NFL games are an indication, this score is actually going to be lower.

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