Stat shows how big of an X-factor pitching will be for Cubs

The 2026 Chicago Cubs have well-established strengths on both offense and defense. As of August 31, they lead the Majors in runs scored and walks while ranking third in home runs, giving them one of baseball’s most productive lineups. On the other side of the ball, their defense has once again been a major strength, always keeping them in games and allowing them to have multiple ways to win games.

That said, the Cubs are no slouches on the basepaths either, ranking 10th in the Majors in stolen bases this season. Where they really separate themselves, however, is their efficiency. As highlighted by Nugget Chef over the weekend, Chicago leads the league in stolen-base efficiency, showing just how rarely the Cubs give away outs.

Yesterday, the Cubs passed the Phillies for stolen base efficiency this season, with Chicago now sitting at a 84.9% success rate in 2026.

That means the Cubs have:

– Best team offense (by wRC+)
– Best team defense (by OAA, DRS, errors)
– Highest stolen base success rate

— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) August 30, 2026

Interestingly, the post was designed to highlight three areas in which the Cubs excel, but one crucial piece is noticeably absent: pitching. That omission is worth paying attention to, because how Chicago performs on the mound could ultimately be its biggest X-factor over the remainder of the season.

Pitching performance will be the Chicago Cubs biggest X-factor the remainder of the 2026 season

Entering the final day of August, the Cubs own a 4.15 team ERA, which ranks exactly in the middle of the 30 MLB teams. The advanced metrics paint a less encouraging picture, as their 4.38 expected ERA is even higher. That suggests Chicago’s pitching performance has actually been worse than what has been seen on the field.

Ultimately, the Cubs have checked nearly every box needed to be a legitimate postseason threat. Their offense is among the best in baseball, their defense remains elite and they consistently make smart decisions on the basepaths. The biggest question now rests on the pitching staff.

That said, the Cubs did rebuild their pitching staff at the trade deadline, and also are starting to see others get healthy. High octane arm Daniel Palencia returned earlier this month, Shelby Miller’s last hurdle before amazingly returning following Tommy John surgery is pitching on back-to-back days, and Justin Steele has been working towards returning in a bullpen role.

Chicago’s ability to get consistent performances from its arms could determine whether this season ends with a deep playoff run or an early exit. If the pitching can rise to the occasion, the Cubs have the foundation to be a dangerous October team.

The post Stat shows how big of an X-factor pitching will be for Cubs appeared first on ChiCitySports.