Chicago Cubs: This Cade Horton estimated return date is a real bummer

When Chicago Cubs’ emerging ace Cade Horton was pulled from just his second start of the 2026 campaign and then designated for Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter, it was a total buzzkill. It was also a harbinger of bad tidings ahead as the team’s pitching staff would subsequently suffer through an unprecedented run of injury and misfortune.

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The 24-year-old Horton was expected to play a major role in what the team saw as a solid rotation on a championship-contending team. After a brilliant breakthrough 2025 rookie season where he posted a 2.67 ERA over 118 innings pitched, much was expected.

The injury—the second Tommy John surgery of his young baseball career—was a major setback for both him and the team.

Unfortunately, there’s no easy road back to being the Horton of 2025 and there’s definitely no guarantee as to when he might be back on the mound at full speed. The Cubs initially offered a very general timeline of 15-16 months, but that is in an absolute best case scenario—something which is seldom the case when working with major elbow surgery.

A realistic timeline for his return

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Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib recently offered a sobering, but likely accurate, assessment of when the young righty might actually be ready to go:

“Horton had the surgery on April 16, and the Cubs provided an estimated timeline of 15-16 months. Off that timeline alone, the best-case scenario for Horton’s return would be in July or August of next year. Though, it would seem the Cubs may have tipped their hand with how they handled Steele this past season. They were extremely cautious, and it’s fair to assume the caution will be upped a notch further with Horton.

Which, if that’s the case, there’s a real chance that if all goes well, September could be when to realistically expect Horton to make his return. In other words, don’t view Horton as an expectation for the 2027 season.”

That’s a bitter pill to swallow for a team in desperate need of starting pitching and a definite window of opportunity when it comes to winning right now. It’s also a similar reality to that of former ace Justin Steele, who had elbow surgery in April of 2025 and was expected back mid-season 2026 before recovery setbacks took that possibility off the table.

A history of injury

In 2021, while still a freshman at the University of Oklahoma, Horton had his first Tommy John surgery. Upon his return, he was brilliant, striking out 13 over 7.1 innings in the championship game of the College World Series.

The Cubs raised some eyebrows by drafting him no. 1 with their overall seventh pick in 2022, despite having only 53.2 college innings pitched. Although he rose quickly in the Cubs’ organization, injury and durability remained concerns. In 2024, he was shut down in late May with a right subscapularis shoulder strain.

In 2025, necessity brought him up to the majors and he came through in a big way. After the All-Star break he went 8-1 and posted an incredible 1.03 ERA in twelve starts, with many regarding him as the best pitcher in baseball during that stretch. In late September, however, he was shut down with a fractured rib and he missed the team’s entire postseason run.

It looks as though he may now miss all—or at least most—of 2027.

The post Chicago Cubs: This Cade Horton estimated return date is a real bummer appeared first on ChiCitySports.

Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-cade-horton-return-estimate-tommy-john-2027/