US Presidential election – weekly polling round up – I
Currently predicting: President Clinton
NATIONAL POLL TRENDS
HuffPost Pollster – trendlines
Clinton 43.5% (+0.4%) / 40.6% (+0.5%) Trump
Wall Street Journal
Clinton 44.0% (+0.9%) / 41.3% (+0.9%) Trump
ELECTION FORECAST – CHANCE OF WINNING
FiveThirtyEight – polls only
Clinton 60.2% (-3.9%) / 39.7% (+3.9) Trump
FiveThirtyEight – polls plus forecast
Clinton 59.8% (-3.9%) / 40.2% (+3.9%) Trump
ELECTORAL COLLEGE TRENDING
Figures in the dark colour reflect strong trends for the candidate, the lighter shade indicates a slighter but still clear lean to the candidate.
Tending Trump | 180 (-11)
Toss-up | 131 (No change)
Tending Clinton | 227 (+11)
ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
Taking all states as won by whoever is currently in the lead in the state poll. If a state is tied the electoral college votes go to the previous poll leader.
Clinton | 332 (+11)
Trump | 206 (-11)
A candidate needs to get at least 270 electoral college votes to take the presidency.
KEY STATE BREAKDOWNS
Current state-wide trending by candidate. Electoral college votes for each state are in brackets. States that move more strongly towards a candidate are removed from this list.
Arizona (11) 42.8 (-4.1%) / 46.6 (-0.1%)
Colorado (9) 46.4 (-0.6%) / 42.7 (+0.2%)
Florida (29) 46.4 (-0.6%) / 46.0 (+0.2%)
Iowa (6) 45.8 (-0.5%) / 45.3 (+0.8%)
Nevada (6) 45.8 (-2.0%) / 44.8 (+2.3%)
New Hampshire (4) 44.9 (-1.1%) / 43.9 (+0.4%)
North Carolina (15) 46.1 (-0.8%) / 47.1 (+0.4%)
Ohio (18) 45.4 (+0.3%) / 45.0 (+0.5%)
Pennsylvania (20) 45.9 (-0.5%) / 43.7 (+0.3%)
Virginia (13) 46.5 (-0.8%) / 46.5 (+1.2%)
Data for this analysis comes from:
Source: http://www.vaguelyinteresting.co.uk/us-presidential-election-weekly-polling-round-up-i/
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