Ted Cruz is best positioned to defeat Hillary Clinton in November (devil is in the details)

#‎Polls‬ ‪#‎ElectionModels‬ ‪#‎MSM‬

It is all over Twitter and Facebook. The Feud between Hillary and Bernie supporters and the liklihood that many Sanders’ supporters will sit-out the November Election and NOT VOTE Hillary. The MSM, of course, ignores it – as it doesn’t fit their Liberal narratives. They focus on the Trump v Cruz supporters Feud and ‪#‎NeverTrump‬ movement.

They are also, very likely, to ignore the fact that it will mean an Election turnout and Models returning to 2000 over 2008/12 Models. For those of you who are NOT ‪#‎LowInformationVoters‬ and understand the “Science” part of “Political Science!” And Ted Cruz is leading in the Head-To-Heads in the important Swing-States, where it matters and the Presidency is Won or Lost.

Many of the Polling Operations are also likely to ignore it (at least in their early Polling Models/Reporting), but NOT because they don’t know any better because they can easily see what is going on (their own Polling tells them the disastifaction and #NeverTrump *AND* ‪#‎NEVERHILLARY‬ movements), but rather to try and SHAPE the Election turnouts/outcomes rather than just report it. You will, of course, start to see a change closer to the Elections as the Polling Places are ultimately Judged based on how close to Reality their Reporting gets, and they then get more serious and worry about their reputation (but, again, early on they will attempt to mold the outcome rather than accurately model it).

I would certainly hope and expect Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball to be properly on top of all this.

#‎PresidentialRace‬ ‪#‎Polls‬ ‪#‎Delegates‬ ‪#‎EC‬ ‪#‎SwingStates‬:

Ted Cruz in the CNN Townhall finally said something very important that I’ve been screaming about for awhile. The NATIONAL POLLS DON’T MATTER! He didn’t say, but I always remind people, POTUS is NOT Elected by Popular National Vote! (Side-note: Nor is the GOP Nomination for POTUS Candidate Won by National Popular Vote or even most States’ % Popular Vote, but winning Delegates in the States where the winning margins may be slim but you get the most, or more, Delegates – Donald and the Trumpanzee’s do not grasp that) What matters, and Ted did finally point this out, is Head-to-Head SWING STATE POLLS.

The battle isn’t won or lost in the % Leads of Candidates in the Deep Blue or Deep Red States (Sorry, but those %’s don’t matter)! The Battle, The Presidency, is Won by the small % difference between the Candidates in the Swing States!

Ted Cruz is Beats (or Tied / MOE) with Hillary in the Swing States where it matters!! Donald DOES NOT!

Trump (and his supporters) keep demonstrating, over and over, their complete lack of understanding of this when they keep repeating Trump has “Millions more Votes” (no, like 1.5M but like 1M less than Hillary – NATIONALLY, WHICH DOES NOT MATTER in either Winning a Party nomination or the Electoral College to Win the Presidency). While at the same time ignoring that Trump has yet to get over 50% in ANY State, while Cruz has (but, again, unless it matters to/for Delegate count) – It does not matter how many you can pile on in some States and “run-up” that overall Popular Vote Total. ‪#‎Clueless‬ Donald and his ‪#‎LowInformationVoters‬ will never grasp that.

Go to Real Clear Politics website and DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!

Related #Polls / ‪#‎Modeling‬ posts:
* https://www.facebook.com/joseph.m.lenard/posts/10153862864219279
* Darn, I really wanted to link to another Post that went into much greater detail the Polls, Modeling, and the folly of the National Popular Poll vs Head-To-Head State-by-State Polling (that I only briefly touch on in the “related” link/post immediately above), but I’m currently unable to locate that link/Post. I’ll keep looking and update later if I find it.
* http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
* (semi-related) ‪#‎FITN‬ Primaries: http://rattlewithus.ning.com/forum/topics/fitn